NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 The GFS, Euro and GGEM all show a late season coastal storm affecting the region from Friday night into Sunday morning. Although the axis of heaviest rain remains uncertain, most areas should see a significant, perhaps anomalous rainfall this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 Still a bit out of range but the 18z NAM is a compromise between the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 12km NAM still pouring at 84 hours, 6z Sunday. 2.3 inches by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 18z GFS cut back just a hair, mainly because the CCB develops just a hair later. Basic evelution the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 On 5/10/2017 at 10:07 PM, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS cut back just a hair, mainly because the CCB develops just a hair later. Basic evelution the same. Expand Just noise at this point, the finer details should start coming into focus tomorrow. Looks like a widespread 1-3" rainfall with locally higher amounts, certainly some flooding problems will arise especially with the recent heavy rains that some areas received. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 Looks like convective feedback issues to me on the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 2:43 AM, NJwx85 said: Looks like convective feedback issues to me on the 00z NAM. Expand The 06z NAM looks to have more convective feedback issues then the 00z did IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Looks like the 06z GFS backed off on the heavy precipitation amounts as well, have to see if these are burp runs or if they bring back the heavier amounts in future runs. Regardless, it would still be a 1.5"-2.0" rainfall for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 10:28 AM, Rtd208 said: Looks like the 06z GFS backed off on the heavy precipitation amounts as well, have to see if these are burp runs or if they bring back the heavier amounts in future runs. Regardless, it would still be a 1.5"-2.0" rainfall for the area. Expand The Euro was still widespread 2-3" totals and the UKMET had high numbers as well. Looks like the GFS just developed a little late. It did that once yesterday and then bounced right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 DC was expecting to stay dry or mostly dry today and they are currently getting dumped on so I'm not sure how that might affect things moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 12:31 PM, NJwx85 said: DC was expecting to stay dry or mostly dry today and they are currently getting dumped on so I'm not sure how that might affect things moving forward. Expand Yeah, but that's just the decaying MCV from yesterday's convection over IL, no? I mean we might get clipped with some light showers from some of the stratiform precip associated with the complex up in central PA, but it shouldn't change the broader forecast. Heck, WPC was onto the MCV it just verified 60 miles north of forecast, which is well within typical error for that sort of system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 12:42 PM, Drz1111 said: Yeah, but that's just the decaying MCV from yesterday's convection over IL, no? I mean we might get clipped with some light showers from some of the stratiform precip associated with the complex up in central PA, but it shouldn't change the broader forecast. Heck, WPC was onto the MCV it just verified 60 miles north of forecast, which is well within typical error for that sort of system. Expand When you have such a large error at such short range that can sometimes impact the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 12:59 PM, NJwx85 said: When you have such a large error at such short range that can sometimes impact the entire run. Expand That's not a large error for a mesoscale convective system, and I doubt it's going to affect the run relating to what's mainly a baroclinicly forced rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 The 12z NAM should hopefully come back to the pack this run. Heights are significantly higher along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 Not sure what to make of the NAM. It definitely corrected West a good amount but it still wants to send the heaviest rains towards SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 And then the NAM decides to pretty much rain out Sunday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 The GFS is actually further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 the northern stream is trending toward more of a kicker. i think this will be pedestrian for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 The GGEM is East, Looks like the main threat is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 The 12k UKMET is still >40MM for NYC but it's one of the wettest models currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 5:02 PM, NJwx85 said: The 12k UKMET is still >40MM for NYC but it's one of the wettest models currently. Expand NAM is 40mm for NYC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 5:31 PM, ag3 said: NAM is 40mm for NYC as well. Expand Yeah I just don't know what to think about the NAM. It's been jumping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 Stick a fork in this one. The Euro is way South and East. Even misses most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 6:05 PM, NJwx85 said: Stick a fork in this one. The Euro is way South and East. Even misses most of SNE. Expand It doesnt even rain now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 On 5/11/2017 at 6:14 PM, qg_omega said: It doesnt even rain now? Expand Well under an inch in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 The EPS is way Southeast too. Kudos to the NAM. Was the first model to start poo pooing this threat on yesterday's 18z run and the rest of the guidance followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 You've got to be kidding me... SREF mean just went from barely an inch to almost 2" Maybe the models over corrected East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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