Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Eastern extent of slight risk continues today for S IA/N MO/C IL/W IN (most recent update 7:26 CDT): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...Southeast IA/northwest IL this afternoon... A weak surface wave will move across southern IA to northwestern IL along a stalled baroclinic zone this afternoon into this evening, in association with a remnant MCV that will loosely phase with a northern stream shortwave trough. Boundary layer dewpoints in the low-mid 60s along and south of the boundary and surface heating will drive MLCAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range by mid afternoon. There will be some enhancement to low-level shear immediately in advance of the surface wave along the front, and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells. Expect clusters of storms to form by early afternoon in southern IA and then move eastward into IL during the late afternoon/evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms, as well as a couple of tornadoes with supercells interacting with the zone of enhanced low-level shear along the warm front in advance of the surface wave. Threat shifts a little further south along the OV tomorrow: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Southern MO into the lower OH Valley... Midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase as the ridge becomes suppressed during the afternoon with around 40 kt 700mb winds noted in deterministic guidance. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, combined with strong heating ahead of the southward advancing cold front and steepening midlevel lapse rates will result in moderate instability with little inhibition. This should lead to at least a narrow corridor of severe hail potential as convection develops along the front. Should upscale development occur, an attendant increase in strong winds would occur. The southward extent of strong/severe threat should be curtailed by strong capping across parts of TN southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Probs may have to be raised in the 1630 outlook for me looks like there's a wave over western IA with WAA precip over IA and clearing south of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Looks like decent severe near and south of I-80 in IA and IL today.With that warm front lifting north and the disturbance moving through, might see a tor or two in that area.Keeping an eye on it for a possible chase given it's fairly close. Not highly likely though, we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1019 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017 UPDATE ISSUED AT 1018 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A WAVE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS AIDED IN CREATING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA. SOUTH OF I80, CLEAR SKIES HAVE CREATED A STRONG LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA. THIS GRADIENT WILL LEAD AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL VORTICITY THROUGH A BAROCLINIC GENERATION MECHANISM. STRONGLY BELIEVE THAT THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS WILL MISS THIS AND THAT CAMS ARE THE MOST RELIABLE AT THIS TIME. 12Z NAMNEST AND 00Z NCAR RUNS SUGGESTS ROTATING LONG LIVED STORMS. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. COLD POOLS MAY BEGIN TO CONGEAL CELLS INTO A LINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, A TORNADO, WIND AND HAIL THREAT STILL REMAINS FOR THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 5% tor probs now on the 1630 outlook for central IL on the warm front/ outflow boundary with slight risk extending eastward into IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Indystorm said: 5% tor probs now on the 1630 outlook for central IL on the warm front/ outflow boundary with slight risk extending eastward into IN. Eastward extension looks reasonable. I was wondering if they might bring it a little north, especially in Indiana to include places like Rensselaer and Peru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Meso discussion out now for possible svr t storm watch for se IA and the northern part of central IL within the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 57 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Eastward extension looks reasonable. I was wondering if they might bring it a little north, especially in Indiana to include places like Rensselaer and Peru. They still might on the 4 or 9pm update. Wondering if they might also nudge it into W OH but we'll see how things develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 TOG near Salem IA. Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL 300 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017 IAC087-102030- /O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-170510T2030Z/ Henry IA- 300 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY... At 259 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Salem, or 7 miles southwest of Mount Pleasant, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornado will be near... Mount Pleasant around 315 PM CDT. New London around 330 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Henry County Fairgrounds, Water Works Park, Oakland Mills, Oakland Mills Park and Mount Pleasant Municipal Arpt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 3 hours ago, snowlover2 said: TOG near Salem IA. Looked like a pretty respectable tornado based on some of the pics I've seen. Nice fat cone. Was gonna run south after work, but by the time I got off the individual sups got swallowed into the linear MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Looks like The line is trying to bow out now, I may take a pretty good hit here in an hour. That cell that passed just north of Jacksonville, likely had some large hail with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 70 to 80 mph winds and two inch hail with those central IL storms near Springfield at present. Ouch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Watch just issued for Indystorm and vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Watch just issued for Indystorm and vicinity. Yep...I am reading LSR's of multiple trees down in locations in Mason County IL and areas where the line is at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 743 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN PIATT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 815 PM CDT * AT 743 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OREANA, OR 7 MILES NORTH OF DECATUR, MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES, ROOFS, AND VEHICLES. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... CERRO GORDO AROUND 755 PM CDT. BEMENT AND HAMMOND AROUND 810 PM CDT. ATWOOD AROUND 815 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CISCO, MILMINE, LA PLACE, OAKLEY AND IVESDALE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Warned cell with a little notch just went over my parents place in Oreana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 From the looks of that radar, there was most likely a spinup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Pretty decent hook for about 15 minutes on the cell that passed just south of me about 30 minutes ago. Storms were elevated as they approached. Could see the radar indicated rotation but the base was maybe 2K feet up. Literally no wind brought to the surface, just .5 inch of rain in about 30 minutes. Was rather bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Looks like decent severe near and south of I-80 in IA and IL today.With that warm front lifting north and the disturbance moving through, might see a tor or two in that area.Keeping an eye on it for a possible chase given it's fairly close. Not highly likely though, we'll see...In the end, decided not to chase...another good decision.That early activity in E. IA was sort of a win/lose. It put down an OFB, but also shunted the warm front south. There was some capping as well, and with forcing further west tied to the disturbance, there was nothing to allow further development east. A few other issues as well. All of the above definitely prevented a better local day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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