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May 10th-11th Severe Threats


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1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Latest HRRR takes what could be argued is that supercell northeast up the boundary all the way into OKC area 01-02z timeframe. 

Interesting .... yep that ofb may make things interesting, winds due east coming in to that storm it looked like

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8 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Looks like it may ride the outflow boundary. 

GOES-16 vis sat imagery would certainly support this idea. Could be a pretty nasty storm later on if: 1. It persists, and 2. Remains at least semi-discrete. 

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6 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

GOES-16 vis sat imagery would certainly support this idea. Could be a pretty nasty storm later on if: 1. It persists, and 2. Remains at least semi-discrete. 

Yeah we'll see if the storms initiating to its south play nicely or run interference. 

Also at the moment it has a very HP look to it

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Well then... 

The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Childress County in the Panhandle of Texas...
  Northern Cottle County in northwestern Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 335 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cee Vee, or 12
  miles south of Childress, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. 

  SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  south central Childress and northern Cottle Counties.

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Supercell southwest of Altus, OK appears to be reorganizing currently... Structure is changing on radar.

Still do not expect rapid intensification or significant organization of the storms until later on, as KFDR VWP reveals a pretty meager and underwhelming low-level wind profile. 

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Extensive cloud-cover across central Oklahoma has heavily limited boundary layer destabilization along the I-35 corridor. Have to wonder how long this storm (near Elmer, OK) can persist, since the low-level shear still won't be particularly favorable for another couple of hours. My guess is not far past I-44.

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yep interesting. Its moving out into even lower esrh at the moment, less cape, and doesn't look to be riding any boundary - also has been splitting for a while. The one heading for Memphis could well go tornadic, helicity in general is up on where it was an hour or so ago, and inflow due east.

 

Samos

 

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7 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Extensive cloud-cover across central Oklahoma has heavily limited boundary layer destabilization along the I-35 corridor. Have to wonder how long this storm (near Elmer, OK) can persist, since the low-level shear still won't be particularly favorable for another couple of hours. My guess is not far past I-44.

20Z OUN special sounding for reference... SBCAPE isn't terrible, but that amount of MLCAPE is not going to cut the mustard.last.gif

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

20Z OUN special sounding for reference... SBCAPE isn't terrible, but that amount of MLCAPE is not going to cut the mustard.last.gif

It looks like it may be on the cool side of the boundary now. No signs of additional development to the south in the near-term.

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NWS cautioning that the cell approaching the Wichita Mtns in sw OK is very dangerous with 80 mph gusts and 2 inch hail.  Over the years I've seen numerous storms become tornadic in that area as they head ne and have even wondered if geography can possibly play a role with low level helicity.  We'll see what happens and if the LLJ ramps up as the storm moves ne.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Supercell SW of Frederick is starting to organize... Is attached to the boundary currently, and given its current eastward movement I would expect it to stay attached to the boundary.

Tail end Charlie has constant rumbles of thunder right now. Definitely strengthening.

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