WhiteoutWX Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Latest HRRR takes what could be argued is that supercell northeast up the boundary all the way into OKC area 01-02z timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said: Latest HRRR takes what could be argued is that supercell northeast up the boundary all the way into OKC area 01-02z timeframe. Interesting .... yep that ofb may make things interesting, winds due east coming in to that storm it looked like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Southeast Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Quincy said: Looks like it may ride the outflow boundary. GOES-16 vis sat imagery would certainly support this idea. Could be a pretty nasty storm later on if: 1. It persists, and 2. Remains at least semi-discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 6 minutes ago, jojo762 said: GOES-16 vis sat imagery would certainly support this idea. Could be a pretty nasty storm later on if: 1. It persists, and 2. Remains at least semi-discrete. Yeah we'll see if the storms initiating to its south play nicely or run interference. Also at the moment it has a very HP look to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 low rotating wall cloud reported on it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 joyce fontaine - rotarion crossing in front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Well then... The National Weather Service in Lubbock Texas has issued a * Tornado Warning for... South central Childress County in the Panhandle of Texas... Northern Cottle County in northwestern Texas... * Until 400 PM CDT * At 335 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Cee Vee, or 12 miles south of Childress, moving northeast at 30 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Childress and northern Cottle Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrussell Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Whelp. Pretty Gnarly looking supercell on reflectivity there. Flying Eagle. Pronounced inflow notch. RFD looks pretty large. Good looking storm. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 The storm behind it near Silverton, TX is also becoming a right-mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Supercell southwest of Altus, OK appears to be reorganizing currently... Structure is changing on radar. Still do not expect rapid intensification or significant organization of the storms until later on, as KFDR VWP reveals a pretty meager and underwhelming low-level wind profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Extensive cloud-cover across central Oklahoma has heavily limited boundary layer destabilization along the I-35 corridor. Have to wonder how long this storm (near Elmer, OK) can persist, since the low-level shear still won't be particularly favorable for another couple of hours. My guess is not far past I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 yep interesting. Its moving out into even lower esrh at the moment, less cape, and doesn't look to be riding any boundary - also has been splitting for a while. The one heading for Memphis could well go tornadic, helicity in general is up on where it was an hour or so ago, and inflow due east. Samos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Severe-warned storms are popping up north of Amarillo. There is a strong difference in shear between south of Amarillo and the northern border of Texas, so some of these may be just marginally severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Quincy said: Extensive cloud-cover across central Oklahoma has heavily limited boundary layer destabilization along the I-35 corridor. Have to wonder how long this storm (near Elmer, OK) can persist, since the low-level shear still won't be particularly favorable for another couple of hours. My guess is not far past I-44. 20Z OUN special sounding for reference... SBCAPE isn't terrible, but that amount of MLCAPE is not going to cut the mustard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 20Z OUN special sounding for reference... SBCAPE isn't terrible, but that amount of MLCAPE is not going to cut the mustard. It looks like it may be on the cool side of the boundary now. No signs of additional development to the south in the near-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 on the amusing side of things, the radar image of the tornado-warned cell in northern Texas, (2101z) looked like a goose taking off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 NWS cautioning that the cell approaching the Wichita Mtns in sw OK is very dangerous with 80 mph gusts and 2 inch hail. Over the years I've seen numerous storms become tornadic in that area as they head ne and have even wondered if geography can possibly play a role with low level helicity. We'll see what happens and if the LLJ ramps up as the storm moves ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Sitting south of Manitou waiting on any activity to take off south of the OFB. HP cluster north of Snyder is a outflow piece of crap. Even if it does manage to organize later it will be rediculously HP and a nightmare to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 esrh now up to 200+ on that main batch, with decent cape upwind - may well organise again - I'm no expert though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 sorry David, just saw your post - ok, fair point. Good luck! Samos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Well I think I'm ready to see what next week has in store at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 3 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Well I think I'm ready to see what next week has in store at this point. yeah not the best spring for nado's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samadamsuk Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Wall Cloud developing on that storm by Medecine Mound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 A lot of nicely discrete supercells right now... But all of them are north of the boundary, sigh. On to next week we go probably, which should be markedly more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Supercell SW of Frederick is starting to organize... Is attached to the boundary currently, and given its current eastward movement I would expect it to stay attached to the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Supercell SW of Frederick is starting to organize... Is attached to the boundary currently, and given its current eastward movement I would expect it to stay attached to the boundary. Tail end Charlie has constant rumbles of thunder right now. Definitely strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Storm near the Frederick OK radar is about to go over the dish itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 V-notch showing up on infrared Goes-16 satelitte... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Tornado Warning just issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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