2017 North Atlantic Tropical Storm / Hurricane Forecast Contest

[Roger Smith]

(Aug 31, 2359z) _ The discussion posted earlier today has been edited as Irma rapidly reached major hurricane intensity before August ended (even in z time although I use EDT as the actual determinant of months). So this discussion now reads correctly for the final count which is 4/4/2. The year is now at 9/4/2.

 

August will finish 4/4/2 -- no alternate scoring table is therefore needed (yet). An alternate scoring table will be provided if any late September or October systems reach higher intensity levels in following months.. We've had this discussion almost every year for six or seven years now, and of course there is no easy (contest related) answer, for instance, theoretically Irma could have been a hurricane in both August and September and a major only in September -- but that was cut off by the rapid intensification -- however, our alternate scoring does not add duplicate status entries, just any new status. I've never been able to determine absolutely if the NHC keeps track the same way as system (a) or (b), or if they keep track at all. But plan (a) is our official scoring system anyway.

Scores for August are based on a maximum of 12 points and full error deductions are used (June-July had half-error deductions from their smaller base scores).

For 4/4/2 the scores are as follows ... this table only shows forecasts that were actually made in the contest. For example, nobody predicted 3 3 1.

Interesting that nobody went as high as 4 hurricanes or 2 major hurricanes. The scoring system as explained in post 1 reduces scores from the base of 12, by the average of error and error squared in each category. An error of 1 is a reduction of 1, an error of 2 is a reduction of 3, and an error of 3 is a reduction of 6. 

If by any chance potential T.D. 10 (Carolinas to south of New England) was later declared to be a tropical storm and/or hurricane in retrospect, but during the calendar year 2017, then that would count in the contest too and August could then theoretically be scored from 5/4/2, or 5/5/2. If they made this or any similar declaration after January 1st it is null and void for the contest (same applies to seasonal total) although I might post alternate scores if it was before the 2018 season.

 

Aug Forecast __ score _____ forecasters

4 3 1 ________ 10 _______ RJay, Stebo, Rockchalk83, Roger Smith, Ser Pounce

4 2 1 _________ 8 _______ Dmillz25, Matt Petrulli, NCForecaster89, NWLinnCountyIA, "Normal"

4 2 0 _________ 6 _______ Windspeed

3 2 1 _________ 7 ________NHC mid-range (see CSU below), Kurzov, NJwx85, ldub23, Consensus

3 2 0 _________ 5 _______ Yoda

3 1 1 _________ 4 _______ CSU (arbitrary based on scaled seasonal forecast)

3 1 0 _________ 2 _______ radarman

2 2 1 _________ 5 _______ Kalasea

2 2 0 _________ 3 _______ pcbjr

 

3.4 2.2 0.8 ____ 7.7 _____ Contest average

 

=============================================

After September, will post a table of partial total scores based on June to September, plus a reasonable October and Nov-Dec outcome applied to seasonal and future monthly scores. Then that can be adjusted as October and Nov-Dec realities roll in. Much depends on September which gets 16/50 monthly points, then October gets 10/50. Nov-Dec we are back to half-error deductions from a measly 2 points. 

 

 

 

[Roger Smith]

(updated Sept 7 21z)

Jose and Katia have both reached hurricane intensity and Jose has reached major hurricane status, so this brings the annual count so far to 11/6/3 and September already at 2/2/1. Although all of Irma's rampage will be in September, it did reach major hurricane intensity on August 31 and this means that its major hurricane status does not fall in the September portion of our contest. 

 

[Roger Smith]

(edits on Sept 24, 27) _ Lee went dormant for several days and then regenerated, and has attained hurricane intensity. And then it attained major hurricane strength. 

The annual count is now 13/8/5. September is now at 4/4/3.

If there's no sign of further activity by Saturday, I will post September scores. 

 

[Roger Smith]

The September count is 4/4/3.

September scores are from a base of 16  for a perfect forecast.

The actual scores for forecasts made  (those not in the table are not shown here):

Forecast _____ Score ______ Forecaster(s)

6 4 3 ________ 13.0 _______ Windspeed

6 4 2 ________ 12.0 _______ rockchalk83, dmillz25

5 4 3 ________ 15.0 _______ Roger Smith

5 4 2 ________ 14.0 _______ NJwx85

5 4 1 ________ 12.0 _______ NCForecaster89

5 3 2 ________ 13.0 _______ Ser Pounce, ldub23

5 3 1 ________ 11.0 _______ NHC mid-range, Contest Normal

5 2 1 _________ 9.0 _______ Matt Petrulli

4 3 2 ________ 14.0 _______ RJay, Yoda, Consensus

4 2 1 ________ 10.0 _______ Stebo, NWLinnCountyIA, CSU

3 2 1 _________ 9.0 _______ kalasea, radarman, pcbjr

3 0 0 _________ 0.0 _______ Kurzov

____________________________________________________________________________

Following is a provisional total scoring table based on 3 2 0 in October (upgraded to 3 2 1 on Oct 14) and 1 0 0 in Nov-Dec (achieved Nov 8-9 with TS Rina).

This will be edited whenever (a) better estimates can be made or (b) reality confirmed is different at end of month,

Seasonal score was 13/8/5 when the table was posted in early October, and would finish 17/10/6 if these estimates verify. Of course, they may not and your score could improve or worsen as a result. No scores are given for April which was a "given" for all entries. (revised Nov 10) Scores for a Nov-Dec actual count of 2 0 0 give totals in brackets under the contest table scores. For anyone with a forecast higher than 1 0 0 or 2 0 0, another line shows the outcome if this forecast verifies. For Stebo with 1 1 0, this outcome cannot happen so the line has been removed.

(ranks are among 17 entrants, based on these assumptions, and ranks for other scores such as normal, consensus, NHC and CSU do not affect ranks of the 17 entrants).

 

Scores for contest if Nov-Dec 1 0 0 (line 2 shows 2 0 0, season 18 10 6)

 

FORECASTER ____ Season  __APR__ JUN ___ JUL ____ AUG ____SEP ___OCT ___ NOV-DEC __TOTAL (rank)

 

Kurzov ________ 22 8 2_ 22  _100_ 110_3.0 _220_4.5 _321_ 7 _300_ 0 _211_ 8 _ 100_2.0 __ 46.5 (15)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (50.0)

Windspeed _____21 11 5_38 _100_ 210_3.5 _320_4.0 _420_ 6 _643_13 _422_ 8 _100_2.0 __ 74.5 (8)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (42) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (78.0)

Roger Smith ____19 13 6_41 _100_ 110_3.0 _210_5.5 _431_10 _543_15 _432_7 _210_1.0 __ 82.5 (3)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (85.0)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (2.0) __ (88.5)

Kalasea _______ 18 13 6_43 _100_ 100_3.5 _421_2.5 _221_ 5 _321_ 9 _ 443_ 3 _330_0.0 __ 66.0 (13)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) __ (67.0)

_ for 3 3 0 ___________ (49) _________ same as above ________________________ (2.0) __ (74.0)

rockchalk83 ____18 10 5_48 _100_ 000_2.5 _211_5.0 _431_10 _642_11 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 __ 87.5 (1)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (49) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (88.0)

dmillz25 _______17 7 3 _38 _100_ 200_4.0 _310_5.0 _421_ 8 _ 642_11 _200_ 5 _000_1.5 __ 72.5 (9)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (37) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (70.5)

Stebo _________16 9 4 _45 _100_ 200_4.0 _321_3.5 _431_10 _421_10 _211_ 8 _110_1.5 __ 82.0 (4)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) __ (80.5)

NJwx85 _______ 16 9 3 _42 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _542_14 _320_ 9 _100_2.0 __ 83.0 (2)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (40) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (81.5)

NCforecaster89 _ 16 8 3 _40 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _541_12 _211_ 8 _100_2.0 __ 79.0 (7)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (76.5)

 

Consensus* ____ 16 8 3 _40_100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _432_14 _321_10 _100_2.0 __ 82.0 (4)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (79.5)

 

Ser Pounce _____15 9 3 _40 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 __ 81.5 (5)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (37) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (77.5)

 

Contest Normal _ 15 8 3 _38 _100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _531_11 _321_ 10 _000_1.5 __ 77.5 (8)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (35) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (73.5)

 

RJay __________ 15 8 3 _38 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _432_14 _210_ 7_100_2.0 __ 80.0 (6)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (35) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (76.5)

NWLinnCountyIA _15 6 3 _31 _100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _421_10 _321_10 _100_2.0 __ 70.0 (10)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (28) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (66.5)

Matt Petrulli ____ 15 6 2 _27 _100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _521_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 __ 61.5 (14)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (24) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (57.5)

.NHC (mid-range) 14 7 3 _32 _100_100_3.5_ 100_5.5 _321_ 7 _531_11 _321_10_000_1.5 __ 70.5 (10)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (28) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (65.5)

Yoda __________ 13 8 3 _31 _100_ 000_2.5 _210_5.5 _320_ 5 _432_14 _321_10 _000_1.5 __ 69.5 (11)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (63.5)

ldub23 _________13 8 3 _31 _100_ 100_3.5 _110_5.0 _321_ 7 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 __ 69.0 (12)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (63.0)

radarman _______12 5 2 _10 _100_ 100_3.5 _211_5.0 _310_ 2 _321_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 __ 38.0 (16)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (04) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (31.0)

pcbjr __________ 11 5 2 _ 4_ 100_ 000_2.5 _000_4.5 _210_ 0 _ 321_ 9 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 __ 31.0 (17)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (00) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) __ (26.5)

 

..... CSU ________11 4 2 _ 0 _100_ 000_2.5 _100_5.5 _311_ 4 _421_10 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 __ 30.5 (17)

_ for 0 0 0 ___________ ( 0) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) __ (29.5)

_______________________________________________________________________

* Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, and the means are listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) 

Scores for mean _______  42.3 __ --- ____ 2.9 ____ 5.4 ____ 7.7 ____ 12.7 ___9.3 ___ 1.8 ___ 82.1

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (40.3) _______ same as above ________________________ (1.0) __ (79.3)

Mean _______ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0

_______________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

(original post) With Ophelia likely to reach hurricane status, the count for October would then be 2/2/0. The seasonal count will then become 15/10/5.

I had posted a provisional scoring table earlier (previous post) and today I revised that slightly with the assumptions of one more named storm later in October, a count of 3/2/0, and the consensus value of 1/0/0 for Nov-Dec. That would give us an annual total of 17/10/5.

This provisional scoring table will be adjusted if necessary from later developments or lack of developments.

Basically, the scoring can improve for those of us who have room left in our October and seasonal forecasts to handle two more storms in October and in some cases more hurricanes and one major. Differences in November forecasts are slight and that component is only worth a maximum of 2 points. However, anybody has the option of adjusting their Nov-Dec forecast if they see any advantage in doing so (up until Nov 1 06z). 

(added Oct 14) ... Ophelia has reached cat-3 and thus the count for October is 2/2/1 and the seasonal count is 15/10/6. Changes in the provisional scoring table will be made on assumptions of a final October 3/2/1 (achieved Oct 28) and seasonal 17/10/6. 

[Windspeed]

October is killing me. Also, though I had expected a hyper active season, I had forecast more broad and weak activity. I had 10 tropical storms not reaching hurricane intensity. This year has been more about quality versus quantiy, especially from the MDR, even if the overall numbers are still above normal. 10 straight hurricanes is insanely impressive, however I expected more mediocre tropical storms to form as well. I also expected a more active late season right now aside from the fact October has experienced two hurricanes, including a major.

 

October may close out with a TS that turns hybrid, but I think any further significant development is going to have to wait until the second week of November. I'm still looking at you, WCARIB.

[Roger Smith]

The October count has increased to 3/2/1 with the appearance earlier today of Philippe. There is a slight chance of it ending up 3/3/1. Otherwise the scores in the provisional scoring table (three posts back) remain valid with the assumption of a Nov-Dec count of 1/0/0. On this assumption, Rockchalk83 wins the contest.

(added Nov 10th) _ With TS Rina in the books, the scoring table is now valid for the current seasonal count (17 10 6). This means that 0 0 0 cannot happen for Nov-Dec so the provisional scores in the table, which were given for that possible outcome, are now changed to 2 0 0. 

(original post) _ I have added in brackets the scores for a 0 0 0 outcome in Nov-Dec, ranks are mostly the same as for 1 0 0 but the win would be shared by Rockchalk83 and Ser Pounce. If the count rises to 2 1 0, then I would end up with most points. There are various other outcomes for less likely Nov-Dec counts. If any of them come into play, the table will be modified (if we get to 1 0 0 or 1 1 0, then the "what if" line will change to 2 0 0 since 0 0 0 would then be out of play.

 

[Windspeed]

The October count has increased to 3/2/1 with the appearance earlier today of Philippe. There is a slight chance of it ending up 3/3/1. Otherwise the scores in the provisional scoring table (three posts back) remain valid with the assumption of a Nov-Dec count of 1/0/0. On this assumption, Rockchalk83 wins the contest.

I have added in brackets the scores for a 0 0 0 outcome in Nov-Dec, ranks are mostly the same as for 1 0 0 but the win would be shared by Rockchalk83 and Ser Pounce. If the count rises to 2 1 0, then I would end up with most points. There are various other outcomes for less likely Nov-Dec counts. If any of them come into play, the table will be modified (if we get to 1 0 0 or 1 1 0, then the "what if" line will change to 2 0 0 since 0 0 0 would then be out of play.

 

Thanks for making the contest and keeping up with it, Roger.

[Roger Smith]

If the season ends at 17 10 6 (the current count) the following scoring table would apply. This table shows a second line indicating scores if November-December produces another named tropical storm and pushes the seasonal count to 18 10 6.

Only the seasonal and Nov-Dec scores would change in that second scenario. Since two forecasters have higher Nov-Dec forecasts (one that can still occur -- 2 1 0, and two that cannot -- 1 1 0 and 3 3 0), additional lines are shown for all forecasters who can score higher or above 80. The additional lines are not calculated for scores that will drop lower than 80. They will appear if these outcomes are reached, as the current scoring lines will then be revised.

These additional lines show that the contest is not quite settled although Rockchalk83 will win even if there is one more two more tropical storms, unless (a) there is one or more extra storm(s) and at least one becomes a hurricane, or (b) there are three or more additional storms regardless of whether any become hurricanes. Various other forecasters can win the contest (the outcomes I have tested result in a win for your host, there could be scenarios where Windspeed or Kurzov could win) if these 2 1 0, 3 1 0 or higher scenarios occur, more because their seasonal scores will improve than any differences for Nov-Dec which only scores 2 of the 100 points in total. Basically anybody with a seasonal forecast of 17 or less cannot improve rankings with additional storms but it's likely that all would retain their rankings just with lower scores for each new storm (1887 had about five in Nov-Dec and so did 2005).

 

2017 Tropical Season Contest -- scores 

points are in bold type, seasonal forecasts are orange, monthly forecasts are in this typeface (no color). April was not scored. Actual shows the seasonal and monthly counts, and how many points are available for correct forecasts. 

 

FORECASTER ____Season__ APR__JUN ___ JUL _____ AUG ___SEP ____ OCT ____NOV-DEC____TOTAL (rank)

 

___ actual ____17 10 6 _50 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _200 _6.0 _442_12_443_16_ 321_10 _100_2.0 _____100.0

rockchalk83 ___18 10 5_48 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _211_5.0 _431_10 _642_11 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 _____ 87.5 (1)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (49) _________ same as above _________________________ (1.5) ___88.0 (1)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (48) _________ same as above _________________________ (1.0) __ 86.5 (2)

_ for 3 0 0 ___________ (48) _________ same as above _________________________ (0.5) __ 86.0 (1)

 

NJwx85 ______ 16 9 3 _42 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _542_14 _320_ 9 _100_2.0 ______ 83.0 (2)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (40) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 81.5 (3)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 78.0

 

Roger Smith __ 19 13 6_41 _ 100_ 110_3.0 _210_5.5 _431_10 _543_15 _432_7 _210_1.0 ______ 82.5 (3)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 85.0 (2)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (2.0) ___ 88.5 (1)

_ for 3 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 85.5 (2)

_ for 3 1 0 ___________ (47) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 89.0 (1)

_ for 3 2 0 ___________ (49) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 90.5 (1)

 

Stebo _______ 16 9 4 _45 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _321_3.5 _431_10 _421_10 _211_ 8 _110_1.5 ______ 82.0 (4)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 80.5 (4)

 

Consensus* ____ 16 8 3 _40_ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _432_14 _321_10 _100_2.0 _____ 82.0  (t-4)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 79.5 (5)

 

Ser Pounce ___ 15 9 3 _40 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 _____ 81.5 (5)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (37) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 77.5 (6)

RJay ________ 15 8 3 _ 38 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _432_14 _210_ 7_100_2.0 _____ 80.0 (6)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (35) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 76.5 (t7)

NCforecaster89 _16 8 3 _40 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _541_12 _211_ 8 _100_2.0 _____ 79.0 (7)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (38) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 76.5 (t7)

 

 

Contest Normal _ 15 8 3 _38 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _531_11 _321_ 10 _000_1.5 ______ 77.5 (8)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (35) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 73.5 (9)

 

Windspeed ___ 21 11 5_38 _ 100_ 210_3.5 _320_4.0 _420_ 6 _643_13 _422_ 8 _100_2.0 _____ 74.5 (8)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (42) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 78.0 (5)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 78.5

_ for 3 0 0 ___________ (45) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 80.0

_ for 3 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 80.5

_ for 3 2 0 ___________ (45) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 79.5

dmillz25 ______ 17 7 3 _38 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _310_5.0 _421_ 8 _ 642_11 _200_ 5 _000_1.5 ______ 72.5 (9)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (37) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 70.5 (9)

NWLinnCountyIA 15 6 3 _31 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _421_10 _321_10 _100_2.0 ______ 70.0 (10)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (28) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 66.5 (11)

.NHC (mid-range) 14 7 3 _32 _ 100_100_3.5_ 100_5.5 _321_ 7 _531_11 _321_10_000_1.5 _____ 70.5 (10)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (28) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 65.5 (12)

Yoda _________ 13 8 3 _31 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _210_5.5 _320_ 5 _432_14 _321_10 _000_1.5 _____ 69.5 (11)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 63.5 (12)

ldub23 ________13 8 3 _31 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _110_5.0 _321_ 7 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 _____ 69.0 (12)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (26) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 63.0 (13)

Kalasea ______ 18 13 6_43 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _421_2.5 _221_ 5 _321_ 9 _ 443_ 3 _330_0.0 ______ 66.0 (13)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (44) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 67.0 (10)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (47) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 70.0

_ for 3 0 0 ___________ (43) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 67.0

_ for 3 1 0 ___________ (46) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 70.0

_ for 3 2 0 ___________ (48) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 72.5

Matt Petrulli ___ 15 6 2 _27 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _521_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ______ 61.5 (14)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (24) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 57.5 (14)

Kurzov _______ 22 8 2_ 22  _ 100_ 110_3.0 _220_4.5 _321_ 7 _300_ 0 _211_ 8 _ 100_2.0 _____ 46.5 (15)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (27) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 51.0 (15)

_ for 2 1 0 ___________ (24) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 47.5

_ for 3 0 0 ___________ (31) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 54.5

_ for 3 1 0 ___________ (27) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 50.0

_ for 3 2 0 ___________ (23) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 45.5

_ for 4 0 0 ___________ (34) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 56.5

_ for 5 0 0 ___________ (36) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.0) ___ 58.5

radarman _____ 12 5 2 _10 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _211_5.0 _310_ 2 _321_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ______ 38.0 (16)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (04) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 31.0 (16)

pcbjr _________ 11 5 2 _ 4_  100_ 000_2.5 _000_4.5 _210_ 0 _ 321_ 9 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 ______ 31.0 (17)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (00) _________ same as above ________________________ (1.5) ___ 26.5 (17)

 

..... CSU ________11 4 2 _ 0 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _100_5.5 _311_ 4 _421_10 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ______ 30.5 (17)

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ ( 0) _________ same as above ________________________ (0.5) ___ 29.5 (17)

_______________________________________________________________________

* Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, and the means are listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) 

Scores for mean _______  42.3 __ --- ____ 2.9 ____ 5.4 ____ 7.7 ____ 12.7 ___9.3 ___ 1.8 _______ 82.1

_ for 2 0 0 ___________ (40.3) _______ same as above ________________________ (1.0) ___ 79.3

Mean _______ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0

_______________________________________________________

[Roger Smith]

January 1st, 2018

Final results of 2017 North Atlantic Tropical season contest

The above post can be taken as the final scoring summary. I have left in the alternative scoring for higher outcomes for your interest but the contest scoring for each entrant is the first row of numbers only, starting with the forecaster's name.

FIRST (contest winner) -- Rockchalk83 (87.5 points)

SECOND PLACE - - - - - - - NJwx85 (83.0 points)

THIRD PLACE ---- ----- ---- Roger Smith (82.5 points)

FOURTH PLACE - - - - - - - Stebo (82.0 points) __ tied with Consensus

see the previous post for other positions but here's the same table with the alternatives (what if for Nov-Dec) removed.

 

 

FORECASTER ____Season__ APR__JUN ___ JUL _____ AUG ___SEP ____ OCT ___NOV-DEC___TOTAL (rank) _

__________________________________________________________________________________ Monthly totals

 

___ actual ____17 10 6 _50 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _200 _6.0 _442_12_443_16_ 321_10 _100_2.0 ____100.0 _ 50.0

 
rockchalk83 ___18 10 5_48 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _211_5.0 _431_10 _642_11 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 ____ 87.5 (1) _ 39.5

 

NJwx85 ______ 16 9 3 _42 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _542_14 _320_ 9 _100_2.0 _____ 83.0 (2) _ 41.0

 

Roger Smith __ 19 13 6_41 _ 100_ 110_3.0 _210_5.5 _431_10 _543_15 _432_7 _210_1.0 _____ 82.5 (3) _ 41.5

 

Stebo _______ 16 9 4 _45 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _321_3.5 _431_10 _421_10 _211_ 8 _110_1.5 _____ 82.0 (4) _ 37.0

 

Consensus* ___ 16 8 3 _40_ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _321_ 7 _432_14 _321_10 _100_2.0 ____ 82.0  (t-4)  42.0

 

Ser Pounce ___ 15 9 3 _40 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 ____ 81.5 (5) _ 41.5

 

RJay ________ 15 8 3 _ 38 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _431_10 _432_14 _210_ 7_100_2.0 ____ 80.0 (6) _ 42.0

 

NCforecaster89 _16 8 3 _40 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _541_12 _211_ 8 _100_2.0 ____ 79.0 (7) _ 39.0

 

Contest Normal _ 15 8 3 _38 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _531_11 _321_ 10 _000_1.5 ___ 77.5 (8) _ 39.5

 

Windspeed ___ 21 11 5_38 _ 100_ 210_3.5 _320_4.0 _420_ 6 _643_13 _422_ 8 _100_2.0 ____ 74.5 (8) _ 36.5

 

dmillz25 ______ 17 7 3 _38 _ 100_ 200_4.0 _310_5.0 _421_ 8 _ 642_11 _200_ 5 _000_1.5 ____ 72.5 (9) _ 34.5

 

NWLinnCountyIA 15 6 3 _31 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _100_5.5 _421_ 8 _421_10 _321_10 _100_2.0 ____ 70.0 (10) _ 39.0

 

.NHC (mid-range) 14 7 3 _32 _ 100_100_3.5_ 100_5.5 _321_ 7 _531_11 _321_10_000_1.5 ____ 70.5 (10) _ 38.5

 

Yoda _________ 13 8 3 _31 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _210_5.5 _320_ 5 _432_14 _321_10 _000_1.5 ____ 69.5 (11) _ 38.5

 

ldub23 ________13 8 3 _31 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _110_5.0 _321_ 7 _532_13 _220_ 8 _000_1.5 ____ 69.0 (12) _ 38.0

 

Kalasea ______ 18 13 6_43 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _421_2.5 _221_ 5 _321_ 9 _ 443_ 3 _330_0.0 ____ 66.0 (13) _ 23.0

 

Matt Petrulli ___ 15 6 2 _27 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _210_5.5 _421_ 8 _521_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ____ 61.5 (14) _ 34.5

 

Kurzov _______ 22 8 2_ 22  _ 100_ 110_3.0 _220_4.5 _321_ 7 _300_ 0 _211_ 8 _ 100_2.0 ____ 46.5 (15) _ 24.5

 

radarman _____ 12 5 2 _10 _ 100_ 100_3.5 _211_5.0 _310_ 2 _321_ 9 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ____ 38.0 (16) _ 28.0

 

pcbjr _________ 11 5 2 _ 4_  100_ 000_2.5 _000_4.5 _210_ 0 _ 321_ 9 _421_ 9 _100_2.0 _____ 31.0 (17) _ 27.0

 

..... CSU ________11 4 2 _ 0 _ 100_ 000_2.5 _100_5.5 _311_ 4 _421_10 _210_ 7 _000_1.5 ____ 30.5 (17) _ 30.5

_______________________________________________________________________

* Consensus is derived from means for 17 forecasts not incl NHC, CSU, Normal, and the means are listed below to one decimal (rounded in table above) 

Scores for mean _______  42.3 __ --- ____ 2.9 ____ 5.4 ____ 7.7 ____ 12.7 ___9.3 ___ 1.8 _____ 82.1 _ 39.8

 

Mean _______ 16.0,8.4,3.4 _ 100 _ 1.0,0.2,0 _ 2.1,1.1,0.2 _ 3.4,2.2,0.8 _ 4.4,2.8,1.6 _ 2.8,1.6,0.8 _ 0.8,0.3,0

 

Notes: NHC "mid-range" was the average of the range of numbers in their forecast available at contest time. I think the outcome was fairly close to the top end of their range at that time. For CSU, the source was an article on the season that appeared on line before the season started. They may have adjusted those numbers after contest deadline June 4th.

 

Scoring for the Seasonal and Monthly portions of the contest (top five appear here)

Rank _________ SEASONAL __ score _______ MONTHLY _____ score __ rank

1. ____________ Rockchalk83 _ 48 __________RJay _________ 42.0 ___ 1

2. ____________ Stebo _______45 __________Ser Pounce ____41.5 ___ t-2

3. ____________ Kalasea _____ 43 __________Roger Smith____41.5 ___t-2

4. ____________ NJwx85 _____ 42 __________NJwx85 _______41.0 ___ 4

5. ____________ Roger Smith __41 __________Rockchalk83 ___39.5 ___ 5

(note, Consensus, Contest Normal, mean all placed in this range too)

_____________________________________________________________

The forecasters who were closest on each element:

17 named storms -- dmillz25 (17)

10 hurricanes - - - - Rockchalk83 (10)

 6 major hurr's ----- Roger Smith (6) and Kalasea (6)

_____________________________________________________________

Congratulations to our winners and see you all for the 2018 edition in May/June.