NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Manny said: What's the general start time for the storm? I'm taking an 8am flight out of Newark to Miami. It seems I might be leaving right on time before the heavier rains throughout the day. Wouldn't count on it, this is valid at 8AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 What a firehose at the end of the experimental HRRR that runs out to 36 hours. Line of convection at 00z Saturday from SNE all the way down to the Carolinas. Far enough West that everyone East of the GSP gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Seems like almost all the guidance is right at 2" or so for NYC proper. I think that's a pretty good call, with localized heavier amounts in training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Highs in the upper 40's next Tuesday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Not really that doom and gloom in Upton's discussion from Sun-Tue - The heaviest rain exits the region Friday night, but the rest of the weekend into early next week will remain unsettled as a highly amplified omega blocks remains across the lower 48. The upper low responsible for the rain on Friday will become nearly stationary over the Northeast with multiple pieces of shortwave energy rotating about it. Expect a chance of showers each day through Monday. Despite the threat of rain each day, it should be more dry than wet through this period, Especially as we get into Sunday and Monday. A break in the precipitation is expected Monday night into Tuesday as the upper low slowly moves away from our area. However, another chance of rain will come on Wednesday. Temperatures should average at or slightly below average for the long term with an overall cloudy period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Not really that doom and gloom in Upton's discussion from Sun-Tue - The heaviest rain exits the region Friday night, but the rest of the weekend into early next week will remain unsettled as a highly amplified omega blocks remains across the lower 48. The upper low responsible for the rain on Friday will become nearly stationary over the Northeast with multiple pieces of shortwave energy rotating about it. Expect a chance of showers each day through Monday. Despite the threat of rain each day, it should be more dry than wet through this period, Especially as we get into Sunday and Monday. A break in the precipitation is expected Monday night into Tuesday as the upper low slowly moves away from our area. However, another chance of rain will come on Wednesday. Temperatures should average at or slightly below average for the long term with an overall cloudy period. Yesterday it looked like the models were moving towards a more progressive solution with the ULL hanging around Southeastern Canada instead of New England. That scenario has now completely flip flopped with the ULL anchored over Central New England for the next 10 days. I think you will see a change in tune by the weekend. Upton is notorious for downplaying these types of events. I got the impression reading the AFD on Tuesday that the forecaster was completely disgusted with what he was writing because of the tone it was presented in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Well it's crunch time now. I would take any major changes in the modeling seriously as we're inside of 24 hours. More than likely by this time tomorrow the majority of the rains should be Northeast of the area. The 18z NAM is coming in further West with the morning convection, and that trend has been the case more or less all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 So most of the first rains go towards the interior, NE PA and NJ. And most of the heaviest rains fall between about 11AM and 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 The afternoon convection is heavier, and closer to the coast. One area of enhanced rains over the interior and another over Long Island and SNE Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The afternoon convection is heavier, and closer to the coast. One area of enhanced rains over the interior and another over Long Island and SNE Friday afternoon. there's likely to be a screw zone b/w the 2 somewhere. Screwed meaning .75 or less, not no rain at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: there's likely to be a screw zone b/w the 2 somewhere. Screwed meaning .75 or less, not no rain at all. I'm talking about the second batch here. The first batch looks like it will get everyone or nearly everyone with an inch plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 GFS didn't budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 38 minutes ago, Morris said: GFS didn't budge. I pity the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 RGEM cut back some, Cape Code jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 .04 in the bucket so far, rain moving in. Radar is juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Given that this is going to be largely convectively driven, at this range I'd trust the 3KM NAM or the HRRR over the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 HRRR keeps slowing down each consecutive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: HRRR keeps slowing down each consecutive run. The convection looks a little more broken up than 11z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: The convection looks a little more broken up than 11z. Not really worried about that, the radar is solid. Just interested in the timing and hoping it stalls overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not really worried about that, the radar is solid. Just interested in the timing and hoping it stalls overhead. Looks pretty good south of us, and the HRRR still printed out widespread 1"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 back edge racing through DC, this will be over by 2pm. (Kidding) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: back edge racing through DC, this will be over by 2pm. (Kidding) LOL, it's not exactly racing through DC either. It rained in DC all night. Most people in the mid-atlantic are reporting >2" with high rates embedded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Sun is shining lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, Cfa said: Sun is shining lol. sucker hole over CT and LI right now. Close to nothing here so far, but the firehouse will get here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, Cfa said: Sun is shining lol. Not for long, edge is just about at the South shore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 According to the 12z NAM most of the rain should be done by 3PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: According to the 12z NAM most of the rain should be done by 3PM. Yep, and the HRRR agrees. Pretty much done by 3-4 P.M. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 1 minute ago, JerseyWx said: Yep, and the HRRR agrees. Pretty much done by 3-4 P.M. The new HRRR coming in is slower again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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