NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Here you go...metrograms have about 75mm or 3" of rain in NYC proper. That white dot in NE CT is > 5.90". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 inches for the city on the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 12z Euro is less progressive and deeper with the trough than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 12z Euro looks like the UKMET in terms of the heaviest axis of rainfall, which is about from TTN up through Western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 The SLP is also about 3-4mb deeper this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Totals are just about 2" in NYC proper, 3-5" in far Eastern PA into far Western NJ and a general 1.5"-2.0" elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Totals are just about 2" in NYC proper, 3-5" in far Eastern PA into far Western NJ and a general 1.5"-2.0" elsewhere. Wow at the Jackpot area-if anyone gets 3-5 inches in a short period of time, that's going to be ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Wow at the Jackpot area-if anyone gets 3-5 inches in a short period of time, that's going to be ugly If you take the mean between the UKMET and the Euro, the JP zone is right over NJ and NYC. The models seem to be slowing everything down as well, seeing the stronger block. The Euro still weakens the ULL to quickly in my opinion, especially given that strong shortwave that should be dropping down the backside of the trough over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, Morris said: SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: LOL is right. 18z NAM is coming in a lot more amplified than 12z. Think this run could be special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: LOL is right. 18z NAM is coming in a lot more amplified than 12z. Think this run could be special. ah yes, our NAM 6 inch run! Get one every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: ah yes, our NAM 6 inch run! Get one every storm. Well it's a lot slower for sure. If it slows down enough I think we might have a better shot at the secondary convection after the main slug comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 As I suspected, another round of convection on the 18z NAM from about the GSP East on Friday night. Gets going around 02z. Makes sense given the strengthening LLJ, resurgence of moisture and less progressive nature of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 12K NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 PARA GFS remains more impressive than the old GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Still out of useful range but the 18z RGEM looks solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Before someone posts about the 00z NAM cutting back, look at the 3k version. Widespread 2-3" for the entire area outside of the far interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 GGEM crushes everyone. 2-3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Bummer this storm is looking like a bust based on the definition of 3" or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 06z GFS is wetter then its last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 11 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Bummer this storm is looking like a bust based on the definition of 3" or more That still shows around 2" of rainfall for most in the metro area. Also, some of the rainfall will be convective driven so don't get to caught up in that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: That still shows around 2" of rainfall for most in the metro area. Also, some of the rainfall will be convective driven so don't get to caught up in that map. Oh don't get me wrong, I think it's a solid storm. I just remember seeing someone post the other other that that under 3" would be a bust for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 30 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Oh don't get me wrong, I think it's a solid storm. I just remember seeing someone post the other other that that under 3" would be a bust for them. It was a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Any snow? At 500 mb yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 4, 2017 Author Share Posted May 4, 2017 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Any snow? Take a roa dtrip to Buffalo this weekend and you might Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 What's the general start time for the storm? I'm taking an 8am flight out of Newark to Miami. It seems I might be leaving right on time before the heavier rains throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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