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Upper Level System of Doom Observation and Discussion


NJwx85

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Totals are just about 2" in NYC proper, 3-5" in far Eastern PA into far Western NJ and a general 1.5"-2.0" elsewhere. 

Wow at the Jackpot area-if anyone gets 3-5 inches in a short period of time, that's going to be ugly

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wow at the Jackpot area-if anyone gets 3-5 inches in a short period of time, that's going to be ugly

If you take the mean between the UKMET and the Euro, the JP zone is right over NJ and NYC. 

The models seem to be slowing everything down as well, seeing the stronger block. 

The Euro still weakens the ULL to quickly in my opinion, especially given that strong shortwave that should be dropping down the backside of the trough over the weekend. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

ah yes, our NAM 6 inch run!   Get one every storm.

Well it's a lot slower for sure. If it slows down enough I think we might have a better shot at the secondary convection after the main slug comes through.

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As I suspected, another round of convection on the 18z NAM from about the GSP East on Friday night. Gets going around 02z. Makes sense given the strengthening LLJ, resurgence of moisture and less progressive nature of the trough.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_57.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_58.png

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_59.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

That still shows around 2" of rainfall for most in the metro area. Also, some of the rainfall will be convective driven so don't get to caught up in that map.

Oh don't get me wrong, I think it's a solid storm. I just remember seeing someone post the other other that that under 3" would be a bust for them. 

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