NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Record NAO block will result in a potentially historic storm system which will bring heavy rain to the area on Friday with the potential to hang around beyond day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 I see you're saying it will be a force in the future to be dealt with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 6 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: I see you're saying it will be a force in the future to be dealt with -4C to -8C 850mb temps to NYC on Monday on the 12z ECMWF. Going to feel like March instead of May this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 The Euro is unstable too. About 750-850 J/KG of SBCAPE into NYC by 21z Friday, will make for some good fuel for the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 What about Sunday on eastern LI? I need it to be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: What about Sunday on eastern LI? I need it to be nice... Fairly dry, and cool. Highs in the lower 50's. Showers moving in at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Impressive mid-level lift on the nose of a strengthening LLJ from about 09z Friday through about 00z Saturday on the 18z NAM. Things shift slightly East overnight with the strongest dynamics pointed towards Eastern Long Island Friday night. But that's all temporary as the trough goes negative tilt and the rains begin to retrograde. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: -4C to -8C 850mb temps to NYC on Monday on the 12z ECMWF. Going to feel like March instead of May this weekend. My forecast is calling for 30's early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Anyone have a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Anyone have a snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 18z GFS is much wetter. Similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 51 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS is much wetter. Similar to the Euro. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 0z GFS is much drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 0z CMC is like the GFS for the city and metro, but much wetter for the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 8 hours ago, Morris said: 0z GFS is much drier. And 06z is wetter. That's the seesaw we're going to go through the next two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 The 00z UKMET crushes the area. NYC is right around 65mm which is >2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 UKMET was good this past winter, I would definitely pay attention to its solution. looks like 2 maxes starting to show up on models, the far western max and then a max 75 miles either side of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: UKMET was good this past winter, I would definitely pay attention to its solution. looks like 2 maxes starting to show up on models, the far western max and then a max 75 miles either side of I-95 You have the initial push of convection in the morning and then a secondary area that develops in the afternoon, and that is what's going to make the difference between a pedestrian 1-2" or way more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 I think we're somewhat in danger of getting skipped over. The heaviest rains in the morning want to go more towards NE PA and then the secondary push takes over late afternoon and could pull most of the moisture offshore. That's been the case with the GFS/Euro and NAM recent runs. That doesn't mean we won't see heavy rain, just not sure to the extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think we're somewhat in danger of getting skipped over. The heaviest rains in the morning want to go more towards NE PA and then the secondary push takes over late afternoon and could pull most of the moisture offshore. That's been the case with the GFS/Euro and NAM recent runs. That doesn't mean we won't see heavy rain, just not sure to the extent. 12z NAM (12K) is showing this scenario...big stripe of secondary rains in Eastern CT/RI/Eastern MA - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: 12z NAM (12K) is showing this scenario...big stripe of secondary rains in Eastern CT/RI/Eastern MA The 3k NAM is a bit different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Interesting how much more intense the 06z PARA GFS is vs the regular GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just love how the trough begins weakening on the 12z GFS just as another strong shortwave comes barreling down through the Lakes. Less progressive run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 GFS slightly upped precip for the city. 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: GFS slightly upped precip for the city. 2 inches. Nasty Saturday as well, especially Saturday afternoon and evening from NYC East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 The block is even stronger on the 12z GFS vs 06z. It's quite noticeable by day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 Have to watch to see what the trends are for Saturday night. Fairly strong shortwave rounds the base of the trough. The GFS keeps the precip light but I could definitly see that trend wetter. Dew points even spike back into the 50's on Saturday night after a dry push Friday night into Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 If it's May, and 850s are below zero and 500mb height is under 540, that's a textbook setup for self-destructing partly cloudy. We're going to convect instantly with any sunshine whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 My God...don't have the totals yet, but that's got to be close to 3" if not more in one panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 12z GGEM West and wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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