May Banter Thread

[George BM]

It's Wedge time.

[George BM]

Weather Updates for the DC/MD/VA region for Tuesday, June 13, 2017

13z Update

A HISTORIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. (Tornado: 45% (hatched) Wind: 60% (hatched) Hail: 60% (hatched))

An extremely powerful mid-level jet streak in will move over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic this afternoon with 150+kt 500mb winds. This will help the unseasonably cold and deep longwave trough dropping into the Great Lakes Region acquire a negative tilt. This, in turn, will help the surface low currently over Illinois deepen very rapidly. Currently storms are moving out of our region moving offshore the Delmarva and into the Atlantic. Remaining cloud cover will move out of the region by 15z. Temperatures will shot up from the upper 60s/lower 70s to the upper 90’s by mid-afternoon with dewpoint temperatures getting into the upper 70s. This will be coupled with effective bulk shear on the order of 85-95+kts. This will allow for explosive growth of thunderstorms over Indiana and northern Kentucky that will become severe with all hazards: Tornadoes (some long-track and strong), very large to giant hail (4”+ in diameter), and widespread damaging winds w/ significant wind gusts as it rapidly grows upscale. This will likely become an intense derecho with an eastward motion of 75+kts given the very fast wind fields aloft. An extremely unstable airmass will be in place, particularly east of the Appalachian Mountains with mlcape values of 4500-6500+ J/kg.

Forecaster: George BM 

1630z Update

A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AND TORNADO OUTBREAK IS GETTING UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. (Tornado: 45% (hatched) Wind: 60% (hatched) Hail: 60% (hatched))

Several supercells have developed from southern Indiana to near the southern Indiana-Northern Kentucky border and are already producing tornadoes, wind damage, and 4”+ diameter hail. These storms are racing eastward at around 75+kts. A very powerful and cold shortwave trough is racing ESE through Illinois and Indiana which is helping the surface low rapidly deepen over SW Ohio.  This low will deepen as it races eastward and off the Delmarva by 0z this evening. Before then, the storms currently over the Ohio Valley will race eastward growing upscale into a particularly intense MCS. Supercells will likely develop ahead of the main line of storms as they move into the Mid-Atlantic. With 0-1km SRH values approaching 1000m²/s² these supercells will pose a very high risk of tornadoes, some likely strong to violent and long-track. MLCAPE values ranging from 5000-7500 J/kg in the Mid-Atlantic coupled with effective bulk shear on the order of 85-100+kts will allow the MCS itself to be capable of winds causing major structural damage along its entire path until it races off shore this evening.

Forecaster: George BM

20z Update

A HISTORIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS MOVING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN. (Tornado: 60% (hatched); Wind: EXTREME; Hail: 60% (hatched))

An intense derecho is currently moving through the central Appalachian Mountain ranges. This derecho has a history of producing 95-120+mph wind gusts in parts of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and West Virginia doing extensive structural damage. There have also been several strong, long-track tornadoes with this system. 19z soundings from IAD showed excessive MLCAPE values of 7700 J/kg with SBCAPE of 9200 J/kg. As intense as these storms have been, they may become EVEN MORE INTENSE as they move out of the mountains into the most unstable airmass in its path (moving east at 80-85kts). Strong surface low of 967mb is approaching NW Virginia and the WV panhandle is causing very strong surface southerly winds east of the mountains to back to SSE/SE. This is causing 0-1km SRH values to increase to as high as 1500+m²/s². Surface dewpoints in the upper 70’s/lower 80’s have allowed the LCL to remain sufficiently low despite surface temperatures in the upper 90’s. So with those SRH and CAPE values and LCL heights, any supercells will likely continue producing strong to violent long-track tornadoes. Otherwise effective bulk shear on the order of 90-110+kts and extremely steep mid-level lapse rates of 9.5-9.8C/km will allow storms to produce giant hail of 5”+ in diameter and particularly intense wind gusts of 105+kts. Numerous tornadoes, some strong and long-track, also continue to be a threat with the main line of storms.  

Forecaster: George BM

 

PDS TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DC/MD/VA REGION.

Hazards:

Long-Track Strong to Violent tornadoes

Hail of 5”+ in diameter likely

Widespread destructive winds with intense wind gusts to 120mph likely.

 

 

[George BM]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Eskimo Joe would be running through the streets with his arms stretched out asking to be lifted to the promised land. 

Yoda wouldn't even make it to the 1630z update.

EC NPZ would be probably lose it over picking up .02" of rain and just walk into his backyard, never to be seen again.

 

I laughed too hard at this! 

[Jebman]

It's definitely early July in northern Virginia. FORGET MAY. There aint no such animal.

DCA had two nights with lows in the low 70s.

A STRONG COLD FRONT crashed into the Mid Atlantic tonight, bringing temperature drops of an astonishing 7 to 12 degrees! You should have seen how far those dewpoints dropped!!!!!! About THREE DEGREES! The rains were just catastrophic, about a tenth of an inch!!!! I almost got swept to my untimely death by an INCH RISE in a creek during my afternoon jebwalk!

This is typical July/August weather here in northern Virginia.

Forget so called normal weather. It's gone forever. From now on, add 20-25 degrees to average highs and lows, and call it the NEW NORMAL in the Mid Atlantic.

No one had the heart to explain to us that Global Warming will affect the Mid Atlantic first, and that we would see the worst of it over the next century.

Twenty degrees above normal weather is now normal in northern Virginia. It takes a massive trough and a massive Rex Block, to get us down to highs around 70 degrees and lows in the upper 50s.

So called normal temps for May 1 in Washington DC are now 72/50. We lost an entire cool weather season to climate change, and it wont stop there. This massive trough is gonna have a hell of a time dropping our high temps into the mid 60s. Forget lows in the low 50s. We wont see those again til February 2018. The rain will be light too, late this week.

The Summer Forecast is simple, Unrelieved Drought, and Unrelieved Record Heat. We wont see autumnal fronts again til Christmas or later.

[H2O]

I like May.  No idea why

[Eskimo Joe]

Well if I'm going to die it might as well be in the Suck Zone™

[BlizzardNole]

First part of May is looking chilly.  I planted a bunch of tender annuals this past weekend -- they better not get zapped by cold temps!  Sunday night for now is low 40s which is OK, but I'm in trouble if it drops into the 30s.

[WinterWxLuvr]

23 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

First part of May is looking chilly.  I planted a bunch of tender annuals this past weekend -- they better not get zapped by cold temps!  Sunday night for now is low 40s which is OK, but I'm in trouble if it drops into the 30s.

Planting those that early is a risky proposition in the first place.  I'm not really familiar with the local climate where you are, but there's no way I'd plant sensitive plants before May 10-15 here.

[mappy]

I have kept my cucumbers in pots so i can bring them inside... will transplant mothers day weekend. did so on purpose, one so i could avoid rabbits eating the sprouts and two, so i could sow them early (since i grow from seed) but be able to take inside when it gets chilly, like tonight. 

[midatlanticweather]

I would not mind the rain and cooler weather if it would happen on the weekdays! Ruining fishing weekends makes me mad! I mean I will go no matter the weather, but the nicer days and no rain are obviously preferred!  

[WinterWxLuvr]

What a great hockey game.  We just can't punch one in.

[Jebman]

You just gotta LOVE the evolution of this sweet storm!!!!!

This is an excerpt of an AFD out of St Louis MO

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LSX&issuedby=LSX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

 

Overall changes are relatively minor for the period tonight through
Thursday. A classic mid-latitude cyclone continues to evolve in
association with the digging/amplifying upper trof currently
centered through the southern/central Plains. An upper low will
close off over southwest MO this evening, moving east along the
MO/AR border on Thursday to near Paducah by 00Z Friday. The
associated surface low will then deepen as it moves across the lower
MS tonight, and through the western TN Valley and into the lower OH
Valley on Thursday. As mentioned yesterday, if this was winter and
temps were cold enough, we would be dealing with a potentially
historic winter storm with a highly favorable forecast track. In
this case we will continue to see steady stratiform rain.  A classic
comma head structure with expanding rain shield will evolve tonight
as the system deepens, due to increasing large scale forcing/ascent,
a prominent cyclonic warm conveyor belt/trowal air stream, and
deformation/mid level frontogenetic forcing. This deformation zone
rain will have great longevity and rain rates might be heavy at
times later tonight and on Thursday as it becomes centered through
eastern MO.

[BlizzardNole]

On ‎5‎/‎3‎/‎2017 at 10:36 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Planting those that early is a risky proposition in the first place.  I'm not really familiar with the local climate where you are, but there's no way I'd plant sensitive plants before May 10-15 here.

I'm not too worried about most of them, but I should have held off on the tropical milkweeds until Mother's Day.  I will from now on!  (If things look really dodgy on Sunday, like frost advisory, I could dig them up and put them back into the pots I grew them in for a couple days, then put 'em back).

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, BlizzardNole said:

I'm not too worried about most of them, but I should have held off on the tropical milkweeds until Mother's Day.  I will from now on!  (If things look really dodgy on Sunday, like frost advisory, I could dig them up and put them back into the pots I grew them in for a couple days, then put 'em back).

If there aren't too many, just cover them with a sheet.  The warm ground will keep temps up under the sheet.

[Kleimax]

Hey guys I could use some opinions. It's the girlfriends birthday Saturday and she wants to go to Hershey park... but I'm not sure if it's worth it because of showers in the forecast. Looking at the models it doesn't look terrible but I'm just not sure. 

[AdamHLG]

Hey guys I could use some opinions. It's the girlfriends birthday Saturday and she wants to go to Hershey park... but I'm not sure if it's worth it because of showers in the forecast. Looking at the models it doesn't look terrible but I'm just not sure. 

 

 

My advice? If it's her birthday take her to Hershey Park and dress appropriately. It's only rain.... If it even rains. I suspect the heavy stuff will be out of there. Probably overcast and showers if anything. I never let weather change my plans unless it's a complete washout.

 

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[BlizzardNole]

12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If there aren't too many, just cover them with a sheet.  The warm ground will keep temps up under the sheet.

Went ahead and got a 6x50 foot frost cloth off Amazon - why not eh?  I'll use it to fend off the first few frosts in fall to extend the life of the flower beds.  Last year everything got zapped by a couple back to back frosts, then we proceeded to stay above freezing for like three weeks.

 

[nw baltimore wx]

9 hours ago, Kleimax said:

Hey guys I could use some opinions. It's the girlfriends birthday Saturday and she wants to go to Hershey park... but I'm not sure if it's worth it because of showers in the forecast. Looking at the models it doesn't look terrible but I'm just not sure. 

 

8 hours ago, AdamHLG said:

 

My advice? If it's her birthday take her to Hershey Park and dress appropriately. It's only rain.... If it even rains. I suspect the heavy stuff will be out of there. Probably overcast and showers if anything. I never let weather change my plans unless it's a complete washout.

Bad weather may keep the crowds away too, so I agree with Adam.  Take the trip.  Also, there are several good breweries on the way out and back from Hershey, and other than snow, there's no weather better for drinking than a rainy weather. 

[nw baltimore wx]

The last four weeks have been less than perfect and has included a sewage line replacement from the house to the street, a broken water line, a fixed water line, several trees being taken down and hauled away, the tree guy re-breaking the water line, the water line almost all the way repaired, a painful back that required an x-ray, and that revealed an obnoxiously large kidney stone that required a cat scan.  Good or bad, it's probably too big to pass, so we wait.

But, slowly things are getting back to normal.  I fixed the large scar in the yard and also, in an attempt to make summer life more manageable, made the garden somewhat smaller this year by laying 250 square feet of sod.  I got done that yesterday just in time for this deluge, so I'm cautiously optimistic that my recent run of not-so-good luck is going to be better.

[yoda]

52 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The last four weeks have been less than perfect and has included a sewage line replacement from the house to the street, a broken water line, a fixed water line, several trees being taken down and hauled away, the tree guy re-breaking the water line, the water line almost all the way repaired, a painful back that required an x-ray, and that revealed an obnoxiously large kidney stone that required a cat scan.  Good or bad, it's probably too big to pass, so we wait.

But, slowly things are getting back to normal.  I fixed the large scar in the yard and also, in an attempt to make summer life more manageable, made the garden somewhat smaller this year by laying 250 square feet of sod.  I got done that yesterday just in time for this deluge, so I'm cautiously optimistic that my recent run of not-so-good luck is going to be better.

Damn... hope things get better for you

[mdhokie]

Adding to my list of things to hate: Those stringy things that fall from oak trees. Last year I don't really remember them, but this year my house is covered. They turn into huge globs of spongy material in the gutters. I had one gutter where the glob made it down the transition and got stuck, that was fun to unclog in the pouring rain. I pulled several trashcans worth of this junk out today. 

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'm pulling for ya brother. 

 

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Damn... hope things get better for you

Thanks, gentlemen.  It's all good.  It's an old house and I know that there are some repairs that have to be made, so it was expected.  And the health issues got me off my butt and to the doctor for overdue check ups that fortunately are all fine.  Other than the rock in my gut, of course!  But as long as my overall health is good, the rest can be dealt with!

 

 

8 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Adding to my list of things to hate: Those stringy things that fall from oak trees. Last year I don't really remember them, but this year my house is covered. They turn into huge globs of spongy material in the gutters. I had one gutter where the glob made it down the transition and got stuck, that was fun to unclog in the pouring rain. I pulled several trashcans worth of this junk out today. 

I hear you.  I had two birch trees that had gotten so big that their branches were over the house, and in the spring it also dropped those long, stringy, sponges that clogged the gutters.  I had them removed last month just before those seed pods became an issue.

[MN Transplant]

36 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

Adding to my list of things to hate: Those stringy things that fall from oak trees. Last year I don't really remember them, but this year my house is covered. They turn into huge globs of spongy material in the gutters. I had one gutter where the glob made it down the transition and got stuck, that was fun to unclog in the pouring rain. I pulled several trashcans worth of this junk out today.

 

We have a Sheltie.  If you don't know the breed, think of a 30lb version of Collie (Lassie).  For several weeks each Spring his sole duty in life is to drag in as many of those damn oak parts as possible.  They just clump on the back of his legs. 

[mappy]

3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The last four weeks have been less than perfect and has included a sewage line replacement from the house to the street, a broken water line, a fixed water line, several trees being taken down and hauled away, the tree guy re-breaking the water line, the water line almost all the way repaired, a painful back that required an x-ray, and that revealed an obnoxiously large kidney stone that required a cat scan.  Good or bad, it's probably too big to pass, so we wait.

But, slowly things are getting back to normal.  I fixed the large scar in the yard and also, in an attempt to make summer life more manageable, made the garden somewhat smaller this year by laying 250 square feet of sod.  I got done that yesterday just in time for this deluge, so I'm cautiously optimistic that my recent run of not-so-good luck is going to be better.

sorry to hear! hopefully things are on the up and up. feel better xoxo

[H2O]

6 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

The last four weeks have been less than perfect and has included a sewage line replacement from the house to the street, a broken water line, a fixed water line, several trees being taken down and hauled away, the tree guy re-breaking the water line, the water line almost all the way repaired, a painful back that required an x-ray, and that revealed an obnoxiously large kidney stone that required a cat scan.  Good or bad, it's probably too big to pass, so we wait.

But, slowly things are getting back to normal.  I fixed the large scar in the yard and also, in an attempt to make summer life more manageable, made the garden somewhat smaller this year by laying 250 square feet of sod.  I got done that yesterday just in time for this deluge, so I'm cautiously optimistic that my recent run of not-so-good luck is going to be better.

Hang in there. Things have to get better after all that. What goes down must come up, right?  Hope you feel better 

[nw baltimore wx]

17 hours ago, mappy said:

sorry to hear! hopefully things are on the up and up. feel better xoxo

 

14 hours ago, H2O said:

Hang in there. Things have to get better after all that. What goes down must come up, right?  Hope you feel better 

Thanks!  Like the weather, it's all ups and downs, right? If last month was a low, I have little to complain about!

 

[Jebman]

Excellent weather!! Last night I savored an epic jebwalk in 46 degree weather that I sweetened by soaking my t-shirt in icewater.

Gotta get the most out of the cool weather!

Tonight is going to be yet another spectacularly cool evening, with another enjoyable jebwalk on tap!

[midatlanticweather]

Check these smoke plumes from the fires in FL/GA -WOW!

 

[Mrs.J]

These mother nature mood swings this last 10 days have not been nice. Attended a horse show April 29th in Millwood, VA and after lightning delays in the AM we sweltered the rest of the day. Attended another horse show yesterday in Bluemont, VA and about froze our cans off with the wind, seriously it felt like early November. Not to mention the allergies that are flaring up with all of the family. 

[WxReese]

The weather the past few days has been awesome. Wish it would stick around for a long while longer...