yoda Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 I expect flash flood watches in the next 48 hrs if the GEFS continues to show that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Most rivers and larger creeks around the area are running 2-3' above normal flow. I would expect some river flooding with 2"+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Totally agree Poolz...looking mighty wet. Hey...Shepherdstown...there's a college there ..right? Back in the early 90s I had a pitching tryout there for the Orioles. It was in July and it reached 105 that day...I'll never ever forget that day. Yea...Shepherd University is a pretty nice campus. It's only about 15 minutes from me... But, I have to ask now...what came of your tryout? No matter the outcome it's a pretty cool thing to try out for a ML team. Te keep it on topic...18z gefs 2" prob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 The amount and level of winter storm tracking vibes I'm getting from this page of discussion....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 6 hours ago, losetoa6 said: It went well . I thought my head would explode on the pitching mound. Hottest day of my life. The O's invited me to another tryout and Shepherdstown offered me a scholarship which I turned down for a scholarship at Catonsville cc. My travel ball coach (Yankee rebels - Baltimore city)was head man at Catonsville at the time. Got signed to independent minor league ball in the Frontier league ( Parkersburg, WV.). Elbow problems ended it. All the jokes about WV are true. I stayed with a host family and it was real..real interesting. Cool story! My guess is that you've got a ton of them playing minor league ball. On topic, it's 62 degrees here. That's inside my house. I refuse to turn on the heat this late in the year. Outside, it's a balmy 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 @losetoa6 I hoped for a scholarship but skill level not injury ended it for me..lol. Played in mens leagues thru my 20s but then two small kids ended that. Now, Ive replaced my obsession with baseball with an obsession of fishing....much more suitable for family life. 37f here this morning...no frost means our banner strawberry crop has survived the spring of '17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Not as excited as last night WRT to heavy rain for the metros this morning...looks like this is a mountain event. Stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 GEFs mean ticked down significantly for Balt/DC metro. Looks like only a 1-3" rain event. Looking forward, for those curious as to what LWX meant by "Maddox" flood, this paper describes it nicely. Refer to the second paragraph under 'Synoptic Evolution': http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/Mid-Atlantic_and_Northeast_Heavy_Rains_2010.pdf Heavy rains are my thing. If you look at the top 10 hydrologic events for DC and Baltimore, about 70% of them featured a Maddox Event. The Ellicott City flooding for last year, although locally historic, was just a convective element over the right place. Throw a good tropical system into the Maddox event and you've got a cherry on top. This event doesn't appear to come together that way unfortunately this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KYWSchoolClosings4ever Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Been following you guys for years and thanks for all the education I've picked up. I am still not even close to understanding everything, but I certainly feel more informed. Sorry to ask a personal question but I'm involved with a big 5k at Trap Pond in Laurel DE on Saturday morning beginning at 8 and I'm wondering what you guys are seeing with wind. Obviously the rain will fall, but running a 5k amongst trees in wind is not a great idea and I can't seem to find any gust guesses. Sustained at 10pmh is ok, but as we get higher it gets dicey. The event is free so I can't imagine attendance will be too strong and I'd much rather reschedule but I'm not sure that's an option. Thanks for any advice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, KYWSchoolClosings4ever said: Been following you guys for years and thanks for all the education I've picked up. I am still not even close to understanding everything, but I certainly feel more informed. Sorry to ask a personal question but I'm involved with a big 5k at Trap Pond in Laurel DE on Saturday morning beginning at 8 and I'm wondering what you guys are seeing with wind. Obviously the rain will fall, but running a 5k amongst trees in wind is not a great idea and I can't seem to find any gust guesses. Sustained at 10pmh is ok, but as we get higher it gets dicey. The event is free so I can't imagine attendance will be too strong and I'd much rather reschedule but I'm not sure that's an option. Thanks for any advice! ATM winds on Saturday don't look like a very big deal. There may be sustained around 10 mph with some 15+ mph wind gusts, maybe a little higher if the storm system were to strengthen a bit more. Final details are still coming together though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KYWSchoolClosings4ever Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Thanks! It did also look like the precipitation wasn't as huge for Southern DE but I know 8-10 am is kind of the prime hour for it to be kicking up, so I'm beyond torn. We had 600 people sign up and the goal is to get families out exercising, so if it really is the heart of the rain, I can't see people showing up. Any shot a miss is still in play? We'll need to make a call tomorrow morning. If we can come up with a new date it seems like a no-brainer to move it, but the last thing we need is to move it and then have the weather be tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted May 10, 2017 Author Share Posted May 10, 2017 17 minutes ago, KYWSchoolClosings4ever said: Thanks! It did also look like the precipitation wasn't as huge for Southern DE but I know 8-10 am is kind of the prime hour for it to be kicking up, so I'm beyond torn. We had 600 people sign up and the goal is to get families out exercising, so if it really is the heart of the rain, I can't see people showing up. Any shot a miss is still in play? We'll need to make a call tomorrow morning. If we can come up with a new date it seems like a no-brainer to move it, but the last thing we need is to move it and then have the weather be tolerable. Chances of rain missing that area Saturday morning seem very slim at the moment. The rain doesn't look to be terribly heavy that way though. BTW I apologize, I didn't see that your in Laurel, DE before my wind comment. Winds may be a bit higher down there with sustained winds around 15 mph with 20-25 mph gusts possible. Again, it's still a changing forecast though. I will keep watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KYWSchoolClosings4ever Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 That's exactly what I was afraid of. We're pretty close to the coast so I figured the winds might be stronger. Really appreciate the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: GEFs mean ticked down significantly for Balt/DC metro. Looks like only a 1-3" rain event. Looking forward, for those curious as to what LWX meant by "Maddox" flood, this paper describes it nicely. Refer to the second paragraph under 'Synoptic Evolution': http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/winter_storm_summaries/event_reviews/2010/Mid-Atlantic_and_Northeast_Heavy_Rains_2010.pdf Heavy rains are my thing. If you look at the top 10 hydrologic events for DC and Baltimore, about 70% of them featured a Maddox Event. The Ellicott City flooding for last year, although locally historic, was just a convective element over the right place. Throw a good tropical system into the Maddox event and you've got a cherry on top. This event doesn't appear to come together that way unfortunately this time. There is some possibility the first batch goes to our southwest and the second batch goes to our east. The negative tilt happens late. GFS still gets us 2" of rain with a lot more in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Just now, Amped said: There is some possibility the first batch goes to our southwest and the second batch goes to our east. The negative tilt happens late. GFS still gets us 2" of rain with a lot more in NJ. Yea by John Q. Public standards it's "big", but my love is with with historic floods that folks remember their entire lives (June 2006). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea by John Q. Public standards it's "big", but my love is with with historic floods that folks remember their entire lives (June 2006). June 2006 was incredible. Went for a walk with friends in the woods bordering my house in the days after that and there was debris stuck in branches of trees way off the ground. We found some good sized dead fish out of water as well nowhere near the creek. Would have loved to have seen how high the water got in person. But I'm not that dumb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: June 2006 was incredible. Went for a walk with friends in the woods bordering my house in the days after that and there was debris stuck in branches of trees way off the ground. We found some good sized dead fish out of water as well nowhere near the creek. Would have loved to have seen how high the water got in person. But I'm not that dumb... Part of my job is to work with dam owners in the county. June 2006 was a benchmark event for the entire field of dam ownership. To this day there are still poster presentations and topics at national conferences about that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Part of my job is to work with dam owners in the county. June 2006 was a benchmark event for the entire field of dam ownership. To this day there are still poster presentations and topics at national conferences about that event. I wish I had a smartphone back then. Would have been nice to have a quick camera with me. I just have to go by memory of that walk through the woods. It was surreal and I don't think it hit at the time how high the debris was into the branches of the trees. I would say that I'm remembering it in an exaggerated form but given how intense that event was I think I'm remembering it correctly. We are talking fish out of water a good 200 yards from where the creek normally resides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I wish I had a smartphone back then. Would have been nice to have a quick camera with me. I just have to go by memory of that walk through the woods. It was surreal and I don't think it hit at the time how high the debris was into the branches of the trees. I would say that I'm remembering it in an exaggerated form but given how intense that event was I think I'm remembering it correctly. We are talking fish out of water a good 200 yards from where the creek normally resides. If you were walking in the rock creek watershed, that was due to a 25 foot rise of Lake Needwood in 6 hours. It was the only time a mandatory evacuation was required in Montgomery County due to a potential dam failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: If you were walking in the rock creek watershed, that was due to a 25 foot rise of Lake Needwood in 6 hours. It was the only time a mandatory evacuation was required in Montgomery County due to a potential dam failure. It was along the NW Branch Trail in the vicinity of Springbrook High School. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: It was along the NW Branch Trail in the vicinity of Springbrook High School. That is the outfall from Pine Lake, a significant hazard dam that went to Level 2 and was one of the reasons our EOC was partially activated (along with Wheaton Dam). We thought everything was over that evening and were starting to shut down when the call from Needwood came in. Needwood went from 0 to 60 in about 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: That is the outfall from Pine Lake, a significant hazard dam that went to Level 2 and was one of the reasons our EOC was partially activated (along with Wheaton Dam). We thought everything was over that evening and were starting to shut down when the call from Needwood came in. Needwood went from 0 to 60 in about 4 hours. I patrol Pine Lake pretty regularly for Park Police (volunteer). Can't believe I didn't realize that is what fed my portion of NW Branch. Just looked at a map and it's clear as can be. Interesting. I wonder how high Pine Lake got during that ordeal. I'm sure it was sealed off - that was long before I was a volunteer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Just now, Kmlwx said: I patrol Pine Lake pretty regularly for Park Police (volunteer). Can't believe I didn't realize that is what fed my portion of NW Branch. Just looked at a map and it's clear as can be. Interesting. I wonder how high Pine Lake got during that ordeal. I'm sure it was sealed off - that was long before I was a volunteer. When looking at any dam, you need to calculate the difference between the water's surface 'pool' and top of the dam. That gives you the amount of play before it gets real. Has about 20 feet of play...we have no records of the rise during June 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If you were walking in the rock creek watershed, that was due to a 25 foot rise of Lake Needwood in 6 hours. It was the only time a mandatory evacuation was required in Montgomery County due to a potential dam failure. I'm pretty sure there were evacuations during Agnes in 1972 Several of my friends were woken up in the middle of the night and told to leave. This is along Rock creek behind the old Broom Jr high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Euro looks further west than the GFS judging by the SLP field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 46 minutes ago, Amped said: Euro looks further west than the GFS judging by the SLP field. Unless I'm missing something, looks like the 12z EURO was practically a nonevent in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Unless I'm missing something, looks like the 12z EURO was practically a nonevent in these parts. Does all the precip somehow miss us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Just now, Amped said: Does all the precip somehow miss us? I may be looking at it the wrong way, but the 12z EURO looks like a 1005mb low racing up into boston and confining all the action to the Shenandoah Mts and New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 So we are not getting 24 inches of snow! What? Seriously, if it was a different time of year there would be some serious crying with the Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 If you look at the latest qpf map from WPC, even though it has 1-2" through central/eastern MD, you can kinda see how this might go given the max areas in the mountains to our SW and also in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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