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May Obs/Disco Thread

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

33.8 for the low here...patchy frost on the roof.  Ready for summer weather and for the rivers to recover from this horrid spring.  Already looking at weeks until things are suitable for the kayak.  My fishing gear still has winter dust on it....

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

That is one impressive BLOCK this week. Love that west based BLOCKING. Hope we get a -NAO like that in early January.

Just wanted to get on the board early. WinterWxLuver.

LOL.

patchy frost out here this morning.  I'd expect tomorrow morning to be more widespread.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

:axe::axe:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1241 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017

MDZ003>005-503-505-VAZ027>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508-
WVZ051>053-090045-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FR.Y.0002.170509T0600Z-170509T1300Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northwest Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-
Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Including the cities of Hagerstown, Frederick, Ballenger Creek,
Eldersburg, Westminster, Germantown, Damascus, Lisbon, Strasburg,
Woodstock, Mount Jackson, New Market, Winchester, Luray,
Shenandoah, Stanley, Front Royal, Berryville, Lovingston,
Charlottesville, Stanardsville, Madison, Washington, Orange,
Gordonsville, Culpeper, Warrenton, Turnbull, Purcellville,
Leesburg, Ashburn, Sterling, Big Meadows, Wintergreen, Paw Paw,
Martinsburg, Charles Town, and Shepherdstown
1241 PM EDT Mon May 8 2017

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Frost Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT
Tuesday.

* TEMPERATURES...In the low to mid 30s.
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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Model war of sorts between the op Euro and Gfs for late week as far as qpf. Euro has DC getting a solid 2 inches and gfs has zippo . As Yoda was saying Gfs definitely looks more progressive at 500mb compared to Euro.

If this was happening 3 months ago there would be a whole lotta euro huggin up in here. 

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted

Made it below freezing by a little with a 31.4 low, not a record, that is 30 from 1980. Still nice. High was 61 yesterday.

Those that were exalting the 'May in Feb' weather, how you enjoying the reverse? Next year enjoy and be happy with the Feb weather in Feb and I'll cheer on May weather in May. Until then this is AWESOME! :)

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North Balti Zen

North Balti Zen

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Made it below freezing by a little with a 31.4 low, not a record, that is 30 from 1980. Still nice. High was 61 yesterday.

Those that were exalting the 'May in Feb' weather, how you enjoying the reverse? Next year enjoy and be happy with the Feb weather in Feb and I'll cheer on May weather in May. Until then this is AWESOME! :)

Um, no one was doing that? People tend to want winter in winter and spring in spring. This weather is as stupid as the stupid warmth in February was.

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Um, no one was doing that? People tend to want winter in winter and spring in spring. This weather is as stupid as the stupid warmth in February was.

Not going to start anything, but I'll just reference page 13 of Feb ob thread and leave it at that, there are many more........

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Hmmm... haven't seen the Maddox Frontal named in a lil while... from this afternoon's LWX AFD

Quote 

The pattern that evolves for the end of the week (and into the
weekend, see Long Term) very much resembles the Maddox Frontal
heavy rain setup, where ridging develops aloft across the
southeastern US, and a boundary remains quasi-stationary from
the Ohio Valley and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, with
weak waves of low pressure moving along it, bounded by high
pressure across northern New England. Winds aloft are expected
to be roughly parallel to the front, with warm air
advection/veering occurring in the vicinity of the frontal
boundary. This is then expected to be capped off by a stronger
wave/coastal low developing over the weekend. There is still
much uncertainty with the position of the boundary and
aforementioned surface waves, but the pattern is conducive for
heavy rain from the Ohio Valley eastward into the Mid-Atlantic
states, and there is broad model/ensemble support for 1 to
locally 3" of rainfall near/over the region. Current
depiction/climo may favor the Ohio Valley into WV and into
central/western VA.

Thursday will see the approach of another wave of low pressure
along the frontal boundary, with chances for showers and even
some thunderstorms increasing by late in the day, especially
across western areas. These will increase in coverage and become
potentially heavy at times Thursday night as wave of low
pressure pushes eastward. Uncertainty remains as to where the
axis of heavier rain will develop, and its possible it sets up
over southwestern VA and into WV. Highs Thursday likely in the
60s, lows Thursday night in the 40s to near 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A stalled front just south of the area will continue to provide a
path for multiple waves of low pressure passing near or over the
area late in the week into the weekend. One such wave likely departs
the area during the first half of Friday. Another (stronger) wave
moves in quickly on its heels Friday night into Saturday.

Becoming a little concerned with the overall pattern which resembles
that of a Maddox Frontal setup; easterly flow at the surface to
westerly at 500 mb indicates warm air advection/isentropic lift. 500
mb flow parallel to the boundary indicates potential training bands
of precipitation. PWATS around 1.25 inches during this time and warm
cloud layers of 12-14 kft would likely result in very efficient warm
rain processes/enhanced rainfall rates.

Model ensemble probabilities indicate 30-50 percent odds of 2 inches
or more of rainfall during this time. All of this coupled with heavy
rain late last week and antecedent periods of showers Thursday into
Friday could spell a flooding risk for at least parts of the area
into the first half of the weekend. As such, will add a mention of
flooding potential to the HWO.
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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

lol Mount Holly's take is a tad different- 

Better chances and probably the wettest period of the long term
is Fri night thru Sat night as the low approaches and deepens
over the area. Frequent rains which could be 1 to 2 inches in
some areas. Pops were raised in these periods with Pops in the
likely range for some zones attm. Temperatures will remain below
normal.

Decreasing chc for showers Sun, but still the possibility for
some across the north Sun morning as the low will be slow to
move away. The three main models are not in terrific agreement
however. The GFS is rather wet for the first half of the day,
the CMC is showery, and the Canadian is mostly dry. Overall, a
mostly cloudy , cool and breezy conditions expected much of
Sunday. Highest chc for showers are probably north. Temperatures
a few degrees below normal.

Improving conditions Mon, then good weather with milder
temperatures expected Tue/Wed. Readings near normal Tue then a
few degrees above normal Wed. Probably a mostly dry period.
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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
Feels like winter out there . 32 when I left this am with lots frost.

 

I guess this means no pool parties at Mappys anytime soon 



Ha, pool isn't even open yet. Have a busted outside spigot that needs fixing so we can fill the pool. Plumber due out on Thursday, so hopefully this weekend if the weather allows we can get it open. Usually have it open by now to regulate before Memorial Day. Gonna be cutting it close this year it seems. Life keeps getting in the way
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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

12z Gefs mean qpf through Sunday. ..Some pretty hefty individual  members in there as well.

gfs-ens_apcpn_eus_24.png

18z goes nuts with 3+ over most of the area.  It's a where was this setup 2 months ago type deal.

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