WEATHERBUFF Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 5 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 946 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-011800- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford- Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike- Southern Wayne- 946 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Thunderstorms, potentially severe, are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon through evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms, but isolated tornadoes will be possible. Also, the storms may contain heavy rainfall with the potential for localized urban and small stream flooding. Make sure you are very aware of the weather this afternoon through evening, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. Generally speaking, the main period of concern will be 4 PM to 10 PM west of Interstate 81, and 6 PM to midnight east of Interstate 81. Binghamton NWS always pulls the trigger too fast with severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The line still looks good and some activity does appear to be trying to get going near DC and Baltimore so it's possible we could see something. The GFS is very robust for NW areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The latest HRRR is a major improvement. Gets about 600 j/kg of SBCAPE into NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The HRRR also has the line dying before hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Whatever sim radar they just showed on News 12 NJ makes it look like we're going to get clobbered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Latest HRRR has some weak storms making into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Tooting own horn - up thread, I said I liked State College for semi discrete storms at the bottom of the line. This hour, a semi-discrete storm at the bottom of the line near Shippenburg, PA had a TDS for a few scans and got warned. Yay me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Montreal getting smoked now with the northern part of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Speaking of getting smoked, the Albany radar is picking up 80mph+ winds at close range, so probably actually happening at surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, seanick said: What storms? I see dying showers on radar and strong storms going well to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: What storms? I see dying showers on radar and strong storms going well to our north HRRR has more convection firing as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Fail. Not exactly sure why everything fizzled as it came East when areas further North had a mini outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 2 hours ago, Drz1111 said: Tooting own horn - up thread, I said I liked State College for semi discrete storms at the bottom of the line. This hour, a semi-discrete storm at the bottom of the line near Shippenburg, PA had a TDS for a few scans and got warned. Yay me. I'm hearing about lots of damage in the State College CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm hearing about lots of damage in the State College CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Thunder woke me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Had a five minute downpour around 5:30AM. Only registered 0.03" in the bucket but it seemed like it should have been more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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