Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Figured this was worth its own thread if anything fired off before the main line. Looks like once the warm front clears out this mP air we're going to have some backed flow, plenty of moisture, and PERHAPS just enough CAPE, especially inland. Low-level shear is about as good as we get, though on some of the CAMs it looks like there might be a subtle pre-frontal trough that tends to veer the winds closer to the main line on the front. If that earlier trough initiates storms, though, it could be interesting. Mid level lapse rates are probably the biggest problem, which makes sense given that this air has been thoroughly convectively overturned over the last couple of days in the plains and Midwest. i think the area on the eastern edge of the enhanced risk doesn't look terrible - IF (big if) storms initiate ahead of the main line, they'll have marginal cape but some nice backed low-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 KOKX doesn't seem too impressed: Note: Most of the area is under a slight risk for severe storms today/tonight, with an enhanced risk across far western Orange County and a marginal risk over New London County and most of the Twin Forks. The main threat would be from any severe storms (possible squall line) that develop late today over Upstate NY/PA then tracks into the area this evening. The question is, how fast would any such storms weaken as the move into an area dominated by a marine airmass in the low levels (even at KSWF per BUFKIT soundings). The main threat will be from gusty winds, but large hail cannot be completely ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Meh, The timing is terrible. You're going to watch a wicked looking squall line over Central PA disintegrate as it crosses the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 I think OKX is being a bit too negative. For example, below is a forecast sounding for western NJ, near Morristown, off the most recent run of the HRR, for 5 pm tonight. CAPE very marginal but it wouldnt take much of an underestimation of heating to make this a very interesting setup. FWIW some of the CAM runs are firing off isolated cells just west of this in NE Pa - those are the storms to watch because of they can establish good mid level rotation in the better environment out in PA, they should be able to persist in marginal CAPE in western NJ. http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017050111&fh=10&r=conus&lat=40.7948&lon=-74.9221&metar= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Meh, The timing is terrible. You're going to watch a wicked looking squall line over Central PA disintegrate as it crosses the mountains. This isn't about the squall line; the risk is for discrete storms that form along a pre-frontal trough earlier in the day with more low-level shear. It's conditional and nothing may happen, but it's worth watching. Agree that the squall line itself should be nothing but gusty rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 SPC pulls way back on new update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: SPC pulls way back on new update. No, they didn't. The enhanced risk and tornado risk are almost the exact same spots,. They reduced the risk for downstream wind/squall line at the coast, which is like, duh, look outside your window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: No, they didn't. The enhanced risk and tornado risk are almost the exact same spots,. They reduced the risk for downstream wind/squall line at the coast, which is like, duh, look outside your window. Storm motion is also a problem, looks like things are moving more SW to NE. The 12z HRRR pushes all the action into upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Some reports of a bit of clearing coming into the DC area and you can see that showing up on the loop. If we can get into some sun this afternoon then I'll feel a lot better about our chances later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 946 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043- 044-047-048-072-011800- Northern Oneida-Yates-Seneca-Southern Cayuga-Onondaga-Steuben- Schuyler-Chemung-Tompkins-Madison-Southern Oneida-Cortland- Chenango-Otsego-Tioga-Broome-Delaware-Sullivan-Bradford- Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne-Pike- Southern Wayne- 946 AM EDT Mon May 1 2017 ...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... Thunderstorms, potentially severe, are expected to develop ahead of a strong cold front this afternoon through evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat from these storms, but isolated tornadoes will be possible. Also, the storms may contain heavy rainfall with the potential for localized urban and small stream flooding. Make sure you are very aware of the weather this afternoon through evening, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. Generally speaking, the main period of concern will be 4 PM to 10 PM west of Interstate 81, and 6 PM to midnight east of Interstate 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Slight uptick in surface dew points on the 14z HRRR. Up to 62 instead of 59 at 18z across interior NNJ. This actually isn't a terrible look, especially if you'd be happy with just some organized convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 We are in full sunshine in Lacey township ocean county. Temperatures shooting up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Cut back for the second time today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 The high res models continue to show a window with marginal CAPE and favorable low level shear at around 20-21Z. The question is whether we get any convection at that time. The later squall line isn't going to do squat around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 This MD is the region we need to worry about. Any supercells that develop on the southside of this could clip N&W burbs - supercells, once developed, can persist into marginal CAPE. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0623.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Yellow box out West with a fairly robust looking squall line. Really need that warm front to continue advancing North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Another red box over Central PA and Western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 It looks like the main action today is going to be with the main squall line, which certainly reduces the risk in our area. Convection ahead of the line seems to be lacking lift. I like the State College area for some semi-discrete action near the bottom of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: It looks like the main action today is going to be with the main squall line, which certainly reduces the risk in our area. Convection ahead of the line seems to be lacking lift. I like the State College area for some semi-discrete action near the bottom of the main line. We're close to getting into the warm sector, even up here in far NE NJ I am now full sunshine with only some cirrus overhead. Temperature is up to 77.8F and DP is up to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just shot up to 78.7, warm front is almost through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Wicked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Some places in the Buffalo area have picked up well over an inch of rain in the last 20 minutes. KBUF gusted over 50MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Southern portion of the line doing much better in the last few frames. The convection in Western MD is our best chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 HRRR seems to be ticking up MUCAPE each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 That tornado-warned embedded supercell looks NASTY, even though it has no TDS. Lots of hail, strong midlevel circulation. That could drop a tornado at any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, Drz1111 said: That tornado-warned embedded supercell looks NASTY, even though it has no TDS. Lots of hail, strong midlevel circulation. That could drop a tornado at any time. And that same cell has been tor warned now 4 or 5 times. Seems to keep cycling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Really trying, looks like instability really doesn't drop off until you hit the DE River, so the high res models might be too pessimistic with rain chances tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: And that same cell has been tor warned now 4 or 5 times. Seems to keep cycling. The HRRR has hinted at a dominant embedded supercell along the NY/PA border for the last few runs. This cell might be it. Certainly its in the best environment, but hard for something in the line to produce given that's its being undercut by the gust front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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