Upstate/Eastern New York

[wolfie09]

Hmmm.. I've never see snow in may, if it's going to be this cold might as well have a few flakes lol

Precip type will start off as all rain Saturday evening, but enough
cold air aloft and at the surface will wrap into the western edge of
the system to allow for wet snow to mix in late Saturday night
across Western NY. By Sunday morning precip type will likely change
to all wet snow across the higher terrain of Western NY, with at
least a mix with wet snow at lower elevations and possibly all snow
for a time. This will then continue through the day Sunday, with a
mix of rain/snow at lower elevations and potentially all snow across
higher terrain. Sunday night the airmass grows even colder, with
850mb temps bottoming out in the -7C to -9C range depending on model
of choice. This will allow even the lower elevations to change to
mainly wet snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The airmass aloft
remains very chilly through the day Monday, as does the boundary
layer, with all snow in the morning transitioning to a mix of rain
and wet snow in the afternoon as the diurnal cycle tries to warm the
boundary layer.

[DeltaT13]

26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Hmmm.. I've never see snow in may, if it's going to be this cold might as well have a few flakes lol

Precip type will start off as all rain Saturday evening, but enough
cold air aloft and at the surface will wrap into the western edge of
the system to allow for wet snow to mix in late Saturday night
across Western NY. By Sunday morning precip type will likely change
to all wet snow across the higher terrain of Western NY, with at
least a mix with wet snow at lower elevations and possibly all snow
for a time. This will then continue through the day Sunday, with a
mix of rain/snow at lower elevations and potentially all snow across
higher terrain. Sunday night the airmass grows even colder, with
850mb temps bottoming out in the -7C to -9C range depending on model
of choice. This will allow even the lower elevations to change to
mainly wet snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The airmass aloft
remains very chilly through the day Monday, as does the boundary
layer, with all snow in the morning transitioning to a mix of rain
and wet snow in the afternoon as the diurnal cycle tries to warm the
boundary layer.

Rochester had snow on May 15th last year.  And we had snow on may 9th in 2010.  Not unheard but certainly unpleasant.  Seems like it has a return interval of about once every 4 years or so.  If it's going to happen, it may as well lay down a few inches so we can really say it happened and remember it well.  I'm pulling for it at this point.  

[vortmax]

2 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

Rochester had snow on May 15th last year.  And we had snow on may 9th in 2010.  Not unheard but certainly unpleasant.  Seems like it has a return interval of about once every 4 years or so.  If it's going to happen, it may as well lay down a few inches so we can really say it happened and remember it well.  I'm pulling for it at this point.  

Had 9" one May in the 1988-1991 timeframe...

[BuffaloWeather]

Figures I come back from Miami's 90 and sunny everyday to 30s and snow. Brutal!

[DeltaT13]

I guess I was off a little.  If you do the most basic interpretation of this excerpt from the NWS then you end up with a return interval of once every 6.8 years for snowfall in May.

How rare is snow in May? Since 1900, Buffalo has had 16 years with
measurable snow in the month of May and Rochester 17 years. That
comes out to roughly 14 percent of the time we see measurable snow
in the month of May.

[cny rider]

Wet snow intermittently mixed with the rain and drizzle here.

How lovely.

 

[cny rider]

We had a coating of snow on the back porch, cars, and parts of the lawn this morning.

[tim123]

Another storm nor easter next weekend more flooding on Lake ontario. Will not be good. Already very bad there already. Especially sodus point to niagara county

[Buffalo Bumble]

On 5/1/2017 at 4:40 PM, Buffalo Bumble said:

If the LR modeling keeps holding onto the idea of a deep cutoff sitting and puking on top of upstate NY for days, as appears on all the models right now, I'll go out on a limb and predict BUF comes in with a top 10 coldest May on record.  Of course the 2nd half of the month could flip to warm and even things out, but a brutal first 15 days seems to be in the cards.  Pretty much what I would have predicted as the fall and winter months rolled by with above normal after above normal weeks.  Just wait for May 1...a big pig ridge will set up in the N. Atlantic and carve out a deep trof in the Northeast.  Sweet.  

After hitting mid-month at close to 5 degrees below normal, we've climbed back to about 1.5 below normal now for the month at BUF.  But instead of a top 10 coldest May, it looks like we're on pace for top 10 (5?) wettest May.  This after the wettest April on record.  We were already 1.4" above normal for the month through yesterday, before this:

.CLIMATE...
Buffalo has exceeded the daily precipitation record of 1.21
inches established in 1874. Rochester is close to a recorded
rainfall, while the rain continues across Watertown. Daily
record rainfall for Rochester is 1.74 inches set back in 1943
and Watertown`s record for today is 1.13 inches set back in
1979. With rain continuing east of Lake Ontario, and possible
showers across Buffalo and Rochester final daily totals be known
after the climatic day (1 AM EDT to 1 AM EDT) ends.

The troffing has been relentless in the GL's....

[BuffaloWeather]

The year without a summer I think is whats coming. At least nothing in comparison to how hot last year was. I'd take last years summer every year if I could. 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

I got a reply to this one usually I wouldn't cuz it's my season off but I would love to have a summer without a summer! Almost like a few years back if anyone remembers we rarely made it into the 80s and if we did it was for a very short period of time, then we jumped right back into the 70s again . If that's the kind of Summer we're gonna have then I'm all in!!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Nice storm rolling through Syracuse at the moment

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I think I just drove through the heaviest rain that I've ever witnessed in my 44 years in existence, lol.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Here we go again for all you sick twisted severe weather freaks, lol!

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[wolfie09]

More rain and plenty at that..

 

 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

It doesn't look that bad for us this afternoon as it once did, rain wise that is.

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

Look out above as a nice little cell is about to roll through, just North of Syracuse. It's just about to come through Pennellville then move straight East through Brewerton and then East from there. Strong winds with CTG lightning and torrential rain should be expecting so take cover!

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[CNY-LES FREAK]

I'm just hoping we don't lose power

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[BuffaloWeather]

[BuffaloWeather]

I can't even imagine...

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

000 FXUS61 KBUF 260131 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Later this evening, additional showers are expected with continued cold air advection and additional upstream short wave troughs poised to move in overnight. Behind the front, a chilly airmass will spread into the region and will be cool enough to bring a potenial for some lake effect/enhancement east of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures dropping to around +6C with lake temperatures of +22C on Lake Erie and +19C on Lake Ontario will bring steep low level lapse rates. This will support the development of scattered lake effect showers through the overnight. Shear profiles do not look ideal for well organized bands. An overall 260-270 degree flow will direct the highest probabilities for showers across the western Southern Tier/Southern Erie county off Lake Erie and Oswego county into Southern Lewis off Lake Ontario. Lake induced equilibrium levels of 20kft+ yields a chance of thunder along with graupel possible if some degree of organized bands can develop. Overnight lows will again dip into the low-mid 50s and even upper 40s in the cooler interior western Southern Tier and Tug Hill. Monday, anomalously cold upper leveltrough will continue to cross the Great Lakes. Another short wave looks to rotate through the base of the trough improving overall dynamics. This feature along with the combination of above-average lake temperatures, and 850 mb temperatures nearing +4C are almost certain to generate a robust lake response, creating the potential for bands of rains downwind of the lakes. Cool air aloft, clouds and rain will keep most temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Monday night and Tuesday the heart of a much cooler than normal airmass will cross the area as a potent mid level shortwave moves through the meanlongwave trough over the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA associated with the sharp mid level vorticity maxima will produce a few scattered showers across the region. The main concern will be lake effect rain potential, a rarity for late June. 850mb temps will bottom out around +4C Tuesday morning. With the lake at around 21C on average that yields more than enough lake induced instability to support lake effect rain. These temperatures will generate around 1800J/kg of lake induced CAPE and equilibrium levels around 30k feet. Off Lake Erie...expect lake effect rain showers to slowly become better organized during the late evening and early overnight Monday night, with lingering diurnal mixing initially hurting the chances of organized development. By late Monday night and early Tuesday morning expect a broken line of nearly steady state convection to focus on the Buffalo southtowns on WSW flow, and likely hugging the shoreline of southern Erie County and possibly into the Dunkirk area. Given the strong instability, expect scattered thunderstorms to be supported within this band of lake effect rain, and locally heavy rainfall. If the band stays stationary long enough, rainfall amounts could easily exceed 1 inch. Tuesday morning boundary layer flow will become more westerly following the passage of the mid level trough, forcing the lake effect rain inland across the western Southern Tier where it will transition to diurnally driven scattered showers by early afternoon.

[lakeeffectkid383]

8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

000 FXUS61 KBUF 260131 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 931 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SYNOPSIS...Later this evening, additional showers are expected with continued cold air advection and additional upstream short wave troughs poised to move in overnight. Behind the front, a chilly airmass will spread into the region and will be cool enough to bring a potenial for some lake effect/enhancement east of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures dropping to around +6C with lake temperatures of +22C on Lake Erie and +19C on Lake Ontario will bring steep low level lapse rates. This will support the development of scattered lake effect showers through the overnight. Shear profiles do not look ideal for well organized bands. An overall 260-270 degree flow will direct the highest probabilities for showers across the western Southern Tier/Southern Erie county off Lake Erie and Oswego county into Southern Lewis off Lake Ontario. Lake induced equilibrium levels of 20kft+ yields a chance of thunder along with graupel possible if some degree of organized bands can develop. Overnight lows will again dip into the low-mid 50s and even upper 40s in the cooler interior western Southern Tier and Tug Hill. Monday, anomalously cold upper leveltrough will continue to cross the Great Lakes. Another short wave looks to rotate through the base of the trough improving overall dynamics. This feature along with the combination of above-average lake temperatures, and 850 mb temperatures nearing +4C are almost certain to generate a robust lake response, creating the potential for bands of rains downwind of the lakes. Cool air aloft, clouds and rain will keep most temperatures in the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Monday night and Tuesday the heart of a much cooler than normal airmass will cross the area as a potent mid level shortwave moves through the meanlongwave trough over the Great Lakes and New England. DPVA associated with the sharp mid level vorticity maxima will produce a few scattered showers across the region. The main concern will be lake effect rain potential, a rarity for late June. 850mb temps will bottom out around +4C Tuesday morning. With the lake at around 21C on average that yields more than enough lake induced instability to support lake effect rain. These temperatures will generate around 1800J/kg of lake induced CAPE and equilibrium levels around 30k feet. Off Lake Erie...expect lake effect rain showers to slowly become better organized during the late evening and early overnight Monday night, with lingering diurnal mixing initially hurting the chances of organized development. By late Monday night and early Tuesday morning expect a broken line of nearly steady state convection to focus on the Buffalo southtowns on WSW flow, and likely hugging the shoreline of southern Erie County and possibly into the Dunkirk area. Given the strong instability, expect scattered thunderstorms to be supported within this band of lake effect rain, and locally heavy rainfall. If the band stays stationary long enough, rainfall amounts could easily exceed 1 inch. Tuesday morning boundary layer flow will become more westerly following the passage of the mid level trough, forcing the lake effect rain inland across the western Southern Tier where it will transition to diurnally driven scattered showers by early afternoon.

Unreal, earliest sign to lake effect season I can ever remember, let's hope it's a sign of things to come

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

987 FXUS61 KBUF 270010 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 810 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably cool temperatures with showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. The upper level disturbances responsible for the cool and unsettledweather will move east Wednesday with a return to warmer temperatures by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... While convection has generally weakened over the western counties early this evening...an area of stronger storms has yet to push across the eastern Lake Ontario region. The stronger storms have been tied to lake breeze or outflow boundaries...but the main forcing for the storms has come from spokes of energy rotating around a nearly stalled mid level storm over Lake Huron. This has taken place within an unseasonably cool airmass that has supported low level lapse rates in excess of 9 deg c/km. Because of the extent of the cool air...an unusually low freezing level has also encouraged a higher than normal amount of hail with the storms. The very cool (if not chilly) airmass (H85 arnd 5c) will support the development of some fairly significant lake effect rain as we push through the night. The season for lake effect rain events usually starts in August when the lakes are at their warmest...but if the airmass if chilly enough (and believe me it is)...then it can occur at any point in the summer. In any case...once we lose the heating of the day...thermals can develop over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie. Lake induced CAPE values will exceed 2000 j/kg with no real cap to limit the ensuing convection. Initially...a 240-250 flow will be in place. This will direct lake effect rain showers parts of Chautauqua COunty and especially the southern half of Erie county. During the course of the night...the lake effect activity should consolidate into a more organized plume that will push north across the northern half of Erie County...including the BUF Metro area. The rain will likely be heavy at times and should be accompanied by some thunder and lightning. Given the very efficient nature of lake induced pcpn(esp rain)...rainfall rates in excess of an inch an hour will be possible. Localized flooding will not be out of the question.

[lakeeffectkid383]

8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

987 FXUS61 KBUF 270010 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 810 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Unseasonably cool temperatures with showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday. The upper level disturbances responsible for the cool and unsettledweather will move east Wednesday with a return to warmer temperatures by mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... While convection has generally weakened over the western counties early this evening...an area of stronger storms has yet to push across the eastern Lake Ontario region. The stronger storms have been tied to lake breeze or outflow boundaries...but the main forcing for the storms has come from spokes of energy rotating around a nearly stalled mid level storm over Lake Huron. This has taken place within an unseasonably cool airmass that has supported low level lapse rates in excess of 9 deg c/km. Because of the extent of the cool air...an unusually low freezing level has also encouraged a higher than normal amount of hail with the storms. The very cool (if not chilly) airmass (H85 arnd 5c) will support the development of some fairly significant lake effect rain as we push through the night. The season for lake effect rain events usually starts in August when the lakes are at their warmest...but if the airmass if chilly enough (and believe me it is)...then it can occur at any point in the summer. In any case...once we lose the heating of the day...thermals can develop over the relatively warm waters of Lake Erie. Lake induced CAPE values will exceed 2000 j/kg with no real cap to limit the ensuing convection. Initially...a 240-250 flow will be in place. This will direct lake effect rain showers parts of Chautauqua COunty and especially the southern half of Erie county. During the course of the night...the lake effect activity should consolidate into a more organized plume that will push north across the northern half of Erie County...including the BUF Metro area. The rain will likely be heavy at times and should be accompanied by some thunder and lightning. Given the very efficient nature of lake induced pcpn(esp rain)...rainfall rates in excess of an inch an hour will be possible. Localized flooding will not be out of the question.

Ha what a bust. Woke up expecting to see a nice band right near me and wake up to find literally a couple light scattered showers. Oh well. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

Ha what a bust. Woke up expecting to see a nice band right near me and wake up to find literally a couple light scattered showers. Oh well. 

Closing in on 45 minutes of torrential rain, hail, and frequent C to G lightening...I assume this is a lake enhanced little monstrosity pivoting through, as it doesn't look like a fully developed band.  Either way, holy S....

Not a big fan of severe weather, but I also had a front row seat on Saturday to some local craziness.  Was playing a golf tournament at Hyde Park in Niagara Falls.  Witnessed some weird sh#$t for about 2 hours.  The convergence from SW wind off L. Erie and I assume NW flow off L. Ontario produced a narrow band of storms literally right over our heads.  Clouds would start to build up, constant rumbles of thunder with no lightning in sight, and clear skies on both horizons....then, boom, all hell breaks loose and you're getting rocked by heavy winds, driving rain, and large hail in the golf cart.  Had like 3 separate rounds of this develop in a couple hours.  

[champy]

This "summer" weather f$#%ing bites.

[BuffaloWeather]

Those clouds on the way to work this morning were incredible. The lake Erie convergence boundary over Niagara county yesterday was awesome as well. Cheektowaga had some crazy hail earlier this morning at my cousins house, the entire ground was white. 

[Buffalo Bumble]

1 hour ago, champy said:

This "summer" weather f$#%ing bites.

It literally feels and looks like October this morning.  

[Buffalo Bumble]

June 27th at noon.  Seriously??

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
NIAGARA FALLS  LGT RAIN  59  51  75 SW8G17    29.97R
BUFFALO        PTSUNNY   61  50  67 SW12      29.96F
DUNKIRK        MOSUNNY   62  52  69 W15G25    30.01R
JAMESTOWN      CLOUDY    57  46  67 W10G17    30.02R
WELLSVILLE     CLOUDY    55  50  83 W12G20    30.01R
ROCHESTER      CLOUDY    61  47  59 W13G18    29.96R
PENN YAN       MOSUNNY   66  45  46 SW12      29.95F

[Revracer800]

This cool weather can stay the rest of the summer. I'm loving it but all the rain can leave wow. Rain, sun, Rain, sun lol. Every half hour it rains then sun pops back out.