BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Decided to start a new thread as latest one is well over 50 pages. Enhanced severe threat later this afternoon with 5% tornado hatch for pretty much the entire state. Don't think I've seen such a widespread enhanced outlook in years around this area. Storms are going to be absolutely flying tomorrow in this area. Consensus on a 700 mb jet of 60-80 kts positioning itself over W/Central PA and W NY through the afternoon. I can't imagine 75/66 at IDI at 02z is all that common in this region with a system of this intensity waiting to shift NE, especially with a lack of an organized MCS to the west. That corridor of backing low level flow showing up on the higher res guidance is certainly intriguing with the strength of the H925-H85 flow being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 As usual the weak instability will probably keep things from getting too out of control in these parts. Not much break in the clouds anywhere except down across C PA and the Mid Atlantic region although some pockets have formed across finger lakes to the Tug Hill area attm. Coincidently this is the area I would give the best chances to for severe wx in the Upstate region today (central southern tier through finger lakes to SYR area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: As usual the weak instability will probably keep things from getting too out of control in these parts. Not much break in the clouds anywhere except down across C PA and the Mid Atlantic region although some pockets have formed across finger lakes to the Tug Hill area attm. Coincidently this is the area I would give the best chances to for severe wx in the Upstate region today (central southern tier through finger lakes to SYR area). Yeah raining here all morning. Thinking central NY and PA has a much better shot at good severe weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The sun is out here and the temperature is up to 75. Reaching the forecast of 78 shouldn't be hard. It'll be interesting to see if any discrete cells pop in front of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I really wish we could have broken into some solid sun here. Such a shame to waste a truly high risk setup. Still thinking someone will get some serious straight line damage and flash floods. Things really go into the tank starting this weekend in regards to nice weather. That awful cutoff low just pinwheels over us for 7 days straight. Brutal stuff, we just need to dry out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 We have sleet in the forecast on Monday, lol. Sun has been shining quite nicely most of today but it has clouded over now it looks like. Most school's in my area have cancelled all afternoon activities as their expecting rain, lol.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Storms moving at 75 mph! Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 306 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 306 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lake Erie State Park to near Lottsville, moving northeast at 75 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 That storm about to hit buffalo is legit. 70+ mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Dude that line of storms is absolutely insane, buffalo and surrounding areas are gonna get absolutely destroyed. Holy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said: Dude that line of storms is absolutely insane, buffalo and surrounding areas are gonna get absolutely destroyed. Holy! Most impressive line in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Pretty wicked looking line of storms 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That storm about to hit buffalo is legit. 70+ mph winds I know, looks wicked on radar (bow segments?). Weird thing though is it's as calm as can be right now where I'm at in Lancaster. Wind is absolutely calm, no rumbles of thunder, birds are chirping. Just an odd look outside right now with that line so close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Seriously, that line of storms looks to be less than 5 miles away on radar. But still calm, not a puff of wind. Fake radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Seriously, that line of storms looks to be less than 5 miles away on radar. But still calm, not a puff of wind. Fake radar? That's actually a really good sign. When the outflow starts getting way out ahead of the line it usually means the convection is collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 KBUF gusted to 51 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's actually a really good sign. When the outflow starts getting way out ahead of the line it usually means the convection is collapsing. Not the worst storm I've seen, but very cool how it hit seemingly out of nowhere. Winds went from nothing to 40 mph+ in the blink of an eye along with torrential rain. Lightning is more intense on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, Buffalo Bumble said: Not the worst storm I've seen, but very cool how it hit seemingly out of nowhere. Winds went from nothing to 40 mph+ in the blink of an eye along with torrential rain. Lightning is more intense on the back end. Could just be the part of the line that hit you. Heard reports of wind damage in the State College area already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 59 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We have sleet in the forecast on Monday, lol. Sun has been shining quite nicely most of today but it has clouded over now it looks like. Most school's in my area have cancelled all afternoon activities as their expecting rain, lol. Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk We are all gonna die! Although that line in WNY looks solid. Sleet Monday? Could be worse...could be what KS and CO got over weekend. What a kick in the can that would be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Large damaging tornado in Mckean and potter county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 23 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We are all gonna die! Although that line in WNY looks solid. Sleet Monday? Could be worse...could be what KS and CO got over weekend. What a kick in the can that would be.... If the LR modeling keeps holding onto the idea of a deep cutoff sitting and puking on top of upstate NY for days, as appears on all the models right now, I'll go out on a limb and predict BUF comes in with a top 10 coldest May on record. Of course the 2nd half of the month could flip to warm and even things out, but a brutal first 15 days seems to be in the cards. Pretty much what I would have predicted as the fall and winter months rolled by with above normal after above normal weeks. Just wait for May 1...a big pig ridge will set up in the N. Atlantic and carve out a deep trof in the Northeast. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 We are all gonna die! Although that line in WNY looks solid. Sleet Monday? Could be worse...could be what KS and CO got over weekend. What a kick in the can that would be....God forbidSent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Large damaging tornado in Mckean and potter county The warnings still say doppler-indicated. Have there been any reports of a tornado on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: The warnings still say doppler-indicated. Have there been any reports of a tornado on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 A spotter also reported it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 OK, thanks. It does seem like the rotation is dying down a bit ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Storm as it moved through Hamburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Interesting that the lightning is mostly behind the line in WNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southbuffalowx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Did you guys see the 12z Euro? -10C 850's next week. If that was to materialize, that would probably wipe out all our fruit trees and many gardens. Even if it doesn't get that cold, next week still looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Big meh last night. We were in the tornado warning box just before 9 pm last night. Even got shown on the Weather Channel. Turned out to be much ado about nothing. Was a plain Jane T-storm. Will have to check local news this AM and see if anything more interesting happened in the areas around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 10 hours ago, southbuffalowx said: Did you guys see the 12z Euro? -10C 850's next week. If that was to materialize, that would probably wipe out all our fruit trees and many gardens. Even if it doesn't get that cold, next week still looks awful. NWS has snow in the forecast Sunday, Sunday night, and Monday. Just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Looks like a good chance for light accumulation of snow Sunday night. Plus lake shore counties under flood watches again Friday. Then again Sunday monday. The lake shore is goin to be changed in a big way. Amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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