Chambana Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 About as raw of a May Day as you could expect around here, 45 degrees, steady moderate soaking rain, and winds driving said rain. Some of the rural schools are actually dismissing early, due to flooding and rising waters. Isolated spots just south of here have had 8-9" of rain the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 3 hours ago, TravisWx said: I'm not very weather savvy, so excuse my potential dumb question. I've been watching the temperature maps for past week or so, the GFS and NAM. Why is it that there is so much warm air through the plains, but it seems like there is a wall around the great lakes region? None of the heat really ever gets here and for the next week or so that pattern looks to be holding. What is going on here? Upper level low will be parked over the area or just to the east, with that there will be northerly or northeasterly winds bringing in cold air from Canada. There is no return flow because the low doesn't move much. In other words a miserable pattern locking in for a long period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 47 degrees/40mph wind gusts here and heavy rain off and on the past two days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XfireLOW Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 I don't think I could write a better 7 day forecast for the first half of May. I don't plan on being inside much when not at work for the next week. Days are starting to get long too.... daylight until 9pm and full light by 630am. Tonight Mostly clear, with a low around 44. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 6 to 15 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 60. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. Northeast wind 5 to 7 mph becoming east southeast after midnight. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. East wind 6 to 8 mph. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. South southeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Monday Night A 30 percent chance of showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. South southeast wind 7 to 9 mph. Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph becoming north northeast in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. East northeast wind 8 to 10 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Northeast wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1 hour ago, XfireLOW said: I don't think I could write a better 7 day forecast for the first half of May. I don't plan on being inside much when not at work for the next week. Days are starting to get long too.... daylight until 9pm and full light by 630am. Wow. Much nicer than down here. We'll probably end up with frost/freeze warnings Sat/Sun and maybe even Mon nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 A little breezy but otherwise one of the nicest days in a long time. Sun and mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 I have never seen it snow on my birthday, but this is going to be close. May 18th is my birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 7 hours ago, Stebo said: Upper level low will be parked over the area or just to the east, with that there will be northerly or northeasterly winds bringing in cold air from Canada. There is no return flow because the low doesn't move much. In other words a miserable pattern locking in for a long period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Jonger said: Long in relative terms of the month. I don't know why you'd be excited about the potential of destructive frosts and the fruit industry in this state getting crushed for the second time in 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Jonger said: I have never seen it snow on my birthday, but this is going to be close. May 18th is my birthday. Chase the fiction in the late hours of the GFS, let me know how the 100" of snow it showed this year went for you too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: Chase the fiction in the late hours of the GFS, let me know how the 100" of snow it showed this year went for you too. His post was in jest, stop being a turd. Spring weather just not happening. 40 degrees with a pesky north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, weatherbo said: His post was in jest, stop being a turd. Spring weather just not happening. 40 degrees with a pesky north wind. Posts in jest usually are funny. Coming from a guy who always wishes for cold weather even in the summer, it wasn't in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: Chase the fiction in the late hours of the GFS, let me know how the 100" of snow it showed this year went for you too. There won't be any notable accumulation, but that pattern is pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 7 hours ago, Stebo said: In other words a miserable pattern locking in for a long period. I'd put money on the first 65 degree day of May IMBY being after the 15th. This ****ing sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: There won't be any notable accumulation, but that pattern is pretty much a lock. Oh really, explain why it is a lock? I would love to hear the reasoning as to why a day 12 projection is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 May is one of the few months that I like above normal temps. Give me -10 departure days in June, July, August and September. That's still comfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, ConfusedKitten said: I'd put money on the first 65 degree day of May IMBY being after the 15th. This ****ing sucks. Unfortunately there is a chance. At least it won't be before the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 5, 2017 Author Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: Oh really, explain why it is a lock? I would love to hear the reasoning as to why a day 12 projection is a lock. This isn't 2010. You haven't noticed that 300 hr depicted patterns have been money since... oh... 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, Jonger said: This isn't 2010. You haven't noticed that 300 hr depicted patterns have been money since... oh... 2 years ago. No they haven't, if they were we would have had blizzard after blizzard this winter. You really don't know what you are talking about, stats back up what I am saying. Is it marginally better than 2010, sure, but no where near perfect. If anything the GFS tends to overdo 500mb lows after day 10, again backed up in the model statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just to put a point to a graphic, this is from the ECMWF, going out only 10 days: It is only getting the anomaly correlation correct at 50% at day 10 which is marginally better than 2010. Also we are talking only day 10, not even 3 days further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Here is a day 7 of sea level pressure verification chart with many models included: Even at day 7 you are averaging around 75%, fact are facts on this one. The models are not great beyond a certain point and surely not great at day 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 55 minutes ago, Stebo said: No they haven't, if they were we would have had blizzard after blizzard this winter. You really don't know what you are talking about, stats back up what I am saying. Is it marginally better than 2010, sure, but no where near perfect. If anything the GFS tends to overdo 500mb lows after day 10, again backed up in the model statistics. The long range gfs is far from money. But I will say it's biases are not solely cold like they used to be. In fact some long range runs had temps in the 60s while we were in the 20s with snow in mid-March. The only reason I remember that is because of an event I had that weekend. Normally I glance at it so I easily forget what it shows in clown range. I can't say I remember it showing a parade of blizzards though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Just now, michsnowfreak said: The long range gfs is far from money. But I will say it's biases are not solely cold like they used to be. In fact some long range runs had temps in the 60s while we were in the 20s with snow in mid-March. The only reason I remember that is because of an event I had that weekend. Normally I glance at it so I easily forget what it shows in clown range. I can't say I remember it showing a parade of blizzards though. There were several storms at that range that evaporated into nothing. My comment isn't about bias though, it is about the model simply being wrong. In this case however, it being wrong would inherently be warmer because it is showing temps cold enough for snow in mid May. There literally is only one direction to go from that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Case in point when compared to ensembles, the op is by far the coldest and it isn't even close. Most of the ensembles are already poking the ridge in from the west not reinforcing crushing cold pattern: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 After 40s and steady but calm rain all day yesterday, today will feature showers with a high in the mid 40s but north winds 25-30 mph gusting to 40 mph. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 Wore my winter coat the last two days...awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropic Thunder Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 I knew we would pay for a warm April. After no frosts/freezes in April, every night is below 32 this month. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 What can you say. It will get better eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 GFS, Euro, and related ensembles showing no reprieve through all of next week for most of the sub. Western areas of the sub will definitely fare better than the Lakes and Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 5, 2017 Share Posted May 5, 2017 47 minutes ago, osubrett2 said: GFS, Euro, and related ensembles showing no reprieve through all of next week for most of the sub. Western areas of the sub will definitely fare better than the Lakes and Eastern areas. Yea looks like several waves passing overhead some of the hardest hit areas midweek. Going to want to watch closely to see if one of those blows up similar to the way this one did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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