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May 2017 Discussion


Jonger

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah you're probably right. September overall is a much warmer month than May.

One way of thinking about it is in May, while rare, it can snow in the southern Great Lakes. In September that's essentially unprecedented down here. With that said, there is certainly non-zero potential for some wet flakes behind the low at the end of the week across parts of the Great Lakes. We finally get the blocking in May... 

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Here May averages 4.7F cooler than September. However I can see both sides. In September the sun angle is quickly fading, and by later in the month some trees start turning and the first chilly nights and light frosts are typically seen. Likewise often in May it can take until mid-month to have trees fully bloomed along with some light frosts and the occasional snowflake, but by memorial day summer heat has made appearances. So I think the key is not to bind the months simply by calendar month.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Here May averages 4.7F cooler than September. However I can see both sides. In September the sun angle is quickly fading, and by later in the month some trees start turning and the first chilly nights and light frosts are typically seen. Likewise often in May it can take until mid-month to have trees fully bloomed along with some light frosts and the occasional snowflake, but by memorial day summer heat has made appearances. So I think the key is not to bind the months simply by calendar month.

Agreed. I'd say the "sister" calendar months for this sub would be:

 

July/August

June/September

May/October

April/November

March/December

January/February

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12 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

Theres a state of emergency for the Niagara County NY region. On this side, coastal towns are already starting to see minor damage and houses flooding. Aside from windswept storms I don't recall Lake Ontario ever being this high.

Do you foresee any serious flooding in Southern Ontario if the models come true? 

GFS is still showing near 4" of precip in SW Ontario from the next system. If that verifies, I think we'd have at least a 1 in 10 year flood event for some rivers (particularly the Grand River) on our hands. Could be a 1 in 25 year type event at the higher end given the already high water levels, saturated soil, and minimal evapotranspiration.

So while I don't foresee any catastrophic or record floods, there could still be some damage to low-lying communities.

I'm not as well versed in lake flooding but given the amount of precip forecast over the Lake Ontario watershed, I suspect there will be continued issues on the shoreline.

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Sun popping out for a few minutes right now.  got some pea sized hail with the showers moving around the low pressure yesterday and had some nice thunderstorms the night before. 

Looking forward to some sunshine starting tomorrow, though the extended forecast looks to have a good deal of troughing over the east, so any westward movement of the trough would get us back in a cool cloudy pattern

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13 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

0Z GFS is still showing heavy rains across the areas that got less this weekend.

 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like a "nice" storm... not.  Going to be pretty miserable again on the cool side.

 

Fighting basement flooding due to a high water table for a month already. Don't need another drop! In this era of non-normal wx, watch the spigot get turned off brutally hard for summer. :rolleyes:

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8 hours ago, UMB WX said:

beats cold rain for days every time..  Enjoy, Bo.  You're living the dream for a large percentage of us Snow Sicko's 

This.  I'd take a few inches of late April/early May snow over the miserable upper 30s with driving rain.  That was just awful.  Bad enough in the winter, but in mid spring it's excruciating.  

EDIT:  We're luckily gonna miss out on the next wave of rains.  

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On 5/1/2017 at 5:26 PM, Hoosier said:

That is an interesting way of thinking.  Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May.

Only somewhat so, if going off average temps.

For the Detroits and Chicagos of the subforum, May has always been more of a summer month. The trees by that point are mostly in full bloom and the frosts are pretty much behind them.  The main difference with September vs. May is the lack of severe weather (May has typically been more active than September). But yeah, I suppose it's a different story when you're further north, across the UP of MI, N. Minnesota or N. Wisconsin.

Heck, I would say April is also more of a Summer month when looking at the Louisvilles and St. Louises of the subforum.

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like a "nice" storm... not.  Going to be pretty miserable again on the cool side.

Yep.

At least the areas that saw the rain with the last storm got the convective / severe weather type of stuff to accompany the heavy rains.

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ORD dropped to 35 this morning...which was only 5 degrees above the record low of 30 set in 2004.  Normal low for today is 45. 

This is the time of year when there is not much variation in low temps in NE IL.  This is probably due to climo lake cooling keeping normal lows relatively cool, and short nights keeping record lows fairly mild.  I'm sure it's quite different out by RFD or the QC.

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13 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

We are concerned about flooding here in Northwest Ohio. Findlay is infamous for flooding.

Blanchard River Flooding Potential.JPG

We've had the worst since Sept '08 on the Kalamazoo (in early April), and now this storm looms! Like Pwrball said, eff it! I mean seriously, if this verifies, we'll be a slim margin above dealing with frozen! Where was this all winter?!? 

20170503 Thur-Fri.PNG

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I'm not very weather savvy, so excuse my potential dumb question. I've been watching the temperature maps for past week or so, the GFS and NAM. Why is it that there is so much warm air through the plains, but it seems like there is a wall around the great lakes region? None of the heat really ever gets here and for the next week or so that pattern looks to be holding. What is going on here?

 

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