OHweather Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah you're probably right. September overall is a much warmer month than May. One way of thinking about it is in May, while rare, it can snow in the southern Great Lakes. In September that's essentially unprecedented down here. With that said, there is certainly non-zero potential for some wet flakes behind the low at the end of the week across parts of the Great Lakes. We finally get the blocking in May... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 0Z GFS is still showing heavy rains across the areas that got less this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Here May averages 4.7F cooler than September. However I can see both sides. In September the sun angle is quickly fading, and by later in the month some trees start turning and the first chilly nights and light frosts are typically seen. Likewise often in May it can take until mid-month to have trees fully bloomed along with some light frosts and the occasional snowflake, but by memorial day summer heat has made appearances. So I think the key is not to bind the months simply by calendar month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Pretty good burst of snow the past couple hours, 31 with north winds. I prefer September weather over May. Lake temps one of the big reasons. Plus snow and cold fatigue is super high in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Here May averages 4.7F cooler than September. However I can see both sides. In September the sun angle is quickly fading, and by later in the month some trees start turning and the first chilly nights and light frosts are typically seen. Likewise often in May it can take until mid-month to have trees fully bloomed along with some light frosts and the occasional snowflake, but by memorial day summer heat has made appearances. So I think the key is not to bind the months simply by calendar month. Agreed. I'd say the "sister" calendar months for this sub would be: July/August June/September May/October April/November March/December January/February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 12 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Theres a state of emergency for the Niagara County NY region. On this side, coastal towns are already starting to see minor damage and houses flooding. Aside from windswept storms I don't recall Lake Ontario ever being this high. Do you foresee any serious flooding in Southern Ontario if the models come true? GFS is still showing near 4" of precip in SW Ontario from the next system. If that verifies, I think we'd have at least a 1 in 10 year flood event for some rivers (particularly the Grand River) on our hands. Could be a 1 in 25 year type event at the higher end given the already high water levels, saturated soil, and minimal evapotranspiration. So while I don't foresee any catastrophic or record floods, there could still be some damage to low-lying communities. I'm not as well versed in lake flooding but given the amount of precip forecast over the Lake Ontario watershed, I suspect there will be continued issues on the shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 My area is pegged for 3 to 3.5 inches of precip Thursday through Saturday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 glad we don't live there.. finally sun for days here to dry this swamp up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 plaster snow has been steady all morning... could see a few inches... a little over 2 so far. Yay May! earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 beats cold rain for days every time.. Enjoy, Bo. You're living the dream for a large percentage of us Snow Sicko's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Lake Ontario water levels: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Sun popping out for a few minutes right now. got some pea sized hail with the showers moving around the low pressure yesterday and had some nice thunderstorms the night before. Looking forward to some sunshine starting tomorrow, though the extended forecast looks to have a good deal of troughing over the east, so any westward movement of the trough would get us back in a cool cloudy pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 12 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS is still showing heavy rains across the areas that got less this weekend. Looks like a "nice" storm... not. Going to be pretty miserable again on the cool side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 13 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: 0Z GFS is still showing heavy rains across the areas that got less this weekend. 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Looks like a "nice" storm... not. Going to be pretty miserable again on the cool side. Fighting basement flooding due to a high water table for a month already. Don't need another drop! In this era of non-normal wx, watch the spigot get turned off brutally hard for summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 8 hours ago, UMB WX said: beats cold rain for days every time.. Enjoy, Bo. You're living the dream for a large percentage of us Snow Sicko's This. I'd take a few inches of late April/early May snow over the miserable upper 30s with driving rain. That was just awful. Bad enough in the winter, but in mid spring it's excruciating. EDIT: We're luckily gonna miss out on the next wave of rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Latest 18z GFS showing widespread 5+ inches of precipitation for SE MI. Crazy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah you're probably right. September overall is a much warmer month than May. Seems much drier too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 22 minutes ago, RobertSul said: Latest 18z GFS showing widespread 5+ inches of precipitation for SE MI. Crazy stuff. Damn. Shades of 1986. Lake Ontario is 2 feet above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 On 5/1/2017 at 5:26 PM, Hoosier said: That is an interesting way of thinking. Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May. Only somewhat so, if going off average temps. For the Detroits and Chicagos of the subforum, May has always been more of a summer month. The trees by that point are mostly in full bloom and the frosts are pretty much behind them. The main difference with September vs. May is the lack of severe weather (May has typically been more active than September). But yeah, I suppose it's a different story when you're further north, across the UP of MI, N. Minnesota or N. Wisconsin. Heck, I would say April is also more of a Summer month when looking at the Louisvilles and St. Louises of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 BTW, **** May 2017. I know the other shoe had to drop eventually, but did it really have to be a size 16 steel-toed boot? It better be worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 14 hours ago, Hoosier said: Looks like a "nice" storm... not. Going to be pretty miserable again on the cool side. Yep. At least the areas that saw the rain with the last storm got the convective / severe weather type of stuff to accompany the heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Frosty out there this morning. Temp got down to 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 ORD dropped to 35 this morning...which was only 5 degrees above the record low of 30 set in 2004. Normal low for today is 45. This is the time of year when there is not much variation in low temps in NE IL. This is probably due to climo lake cooling keeping normal lows relatively cool, and short nights keeping record lows fairly mild. I'm sure it's quite different out by RFD or the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Dipped to 31.7 degrees last night. Had a bit of frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 From 30/wind and snow yesterday, to light wind, sun, and 59 today. I'm like a creek turtle laying on a rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 We are concerned about flooding here in Northwest Ohio. Findlay is infamous for flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 13 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: We are concerned about flooding here in Northwest Ohio. Findlay is infamous for flooding. We've had the worst since Sept '08 on the Kalamazoo (in early April), and now this storm looms! Like Pwrball said, eff it! I mean seriously, if this verifies, we'll be a slim margin above dealing with frozen! Where was this all winter?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Took this shot of lilacs this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 looks like freeze potential monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 I'm not very weather savvy, so excuse my potential dumb question. I've been watching the temperature maps for past week or so, the GFS and NAM. Why is it that there is so much warm air through the plains, but it seems like there is a wall around the great lakes region? None of the heat really ever gets here and for the next week or so that pattern looks to be holding. What is going on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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