Jonger Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Looks like a cold first two weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 I'm not sure about week 2, but the first week should average out cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm not sure about week 2, but the first week should average out cooler. One week per ensembles, by week 2 we are back to normal especially the Central and Western parts of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 Hard to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 7 hours ago, Jonger said: Hard to say for sure. Yeah the first week, like I said thanks for affirming my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 May's definitely looking like it will be overall train wreck, relatively speaking. I guess after several top 10 warmest Mays since 2010 and finally seeing a decent April, it has to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 I'd rather have a below average pattern in May compared to April. It has to be well below average to actually feel uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: I'd rather have a below average pattern in May compared to April. It has to be well below average to actually feel uncomfortable. Yeah and below average Mays can still yield severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: Yeah and below average Mays can still yield severe weather. First enhanced in quite awhile for our area tomorrow, pretty excited. But I consider May a summer month, so take that away and we only have 3 months of summer left. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 You all would slit your weenies if you lived 5 blocks from lake MI on the west side in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 In case if anyone did not find out yet, but CPC stuck a fork in this coming May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 All you have to do is loop a global model and you can tell it's not going to be a warm month in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 So nice to look outside and not see the winds blowing from the northeast. Also a little sun at times this morning. The worst is over. Past few days were about as awful as it can get around here for late April/early May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Very wet week ahead for Southern Ontario. WPC going with 3-4", GFS taking it a step further... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Jonger said: All you have to do is loop a global model and you can tell it's not going to be a warm month in the east. All you have to do is loop an operational run of a global model and you will get an answer for the entire month because operational runs are rock solid and never change nor do patterns change over an entire month? Yeah, I will just give my reservations week to week based upon the models instead of just assuming continuation for the entire month based upon the first runs of the entire month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 hour ago, harrisale said: Very wet week ahead for Southern Ontario. WPC going with 3-4", GFS taking it a step further... It's already been really wet, and this would only make things worse. The backyard is totally saturated, almost to the point of being a quasi-swamp. This is going to get really ugly when the mosquitoes come out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 models are trending stronger low and more NW with thursdays heavy rain great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConfusedKitten Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 hours ago, harrisale said: Very wet week ahead for Southern Ontario. WPC going with 3-4", GFS taking it a step further... Ugh, a couple GFS runs even had wet snow on the back side for Saturday. Just as the weather was starting to get nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: models are trending stronger low and more NW with thursdays heavy rain great.... Yep the 12z Euro jumped to match the GFS. Pretty good concensus there to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 18 hours ago, Stebo said: Yep the 12z Euro jumped to match the GFS. Pretty good concensus there to be honest. Yeah and less than 96 hours out. Conservation Authorities around here will need to start getting the word out about potential flooding in the next day or so. Probably been at least 5 years since we've seen this much precip over such a large area in southern ON. Lake Ontario levels are already quite high as well, with some shore flooding already occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Miserable outside. Very showery, windy, with occasional small hail/graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Finally a good tstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Kind of odd to have a chilly wind out of the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 20 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: First enhanced in quite awhile for our area tomorrow, pretty excited. But I consider May a summer month, so take that away and we only have 3 months of summer left. =/ That is an interesting way of thinking. Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That is an interesting way of thinking. Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May. Agreed. I don't consider "summer" until Memorial Day. Anything nice earlier than that is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Yikes not one day in the 60s for the foreseeable future around here. Brutal start to the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 This is a decent little sounding for Thursday evening: It is for interior Washington state... Not too often you see 3000 J/kg in the Pac NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 5 hours ago, harrisale said: Yeah and less than 96 hours out. Conservation Authorities around here will need to start getting the word out about potential flooding in the next day or so. Probably been at least a decade since we've seen this much precip over such a large area in southern ON. Lake Ontario levels are already quite high as well, with some shore flooding already occurring. Theres a state of emergency for the Niagara County NY region. On this side, coastal towns are already starting to see minor damage and houses flooding. Aside from windswept storms I don't recall Lake Ontario ever being this high. Do you foresee any serious flooding in Southern Ontario if the models come true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Finally a good tstorm. Nice wind storm. 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: That is an interesting way of thinking. Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May. I was going reply the same thing, but decided against it because I thought people would figure that I'm nuts. I've always thought of May as a spring month and September as a summer month (although the last week of Sept. can sometimes be downright cool here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: That is an interesting way of thinking. Without checking averages, frequency of temps above a certain threshold, etc. I would guess that September acts like more of a "summer" month than May. Yeah you're probably right. September overall is a much warmer month than May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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