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Christmas Storm I (general banter)

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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VeronicaCorningstone

VeronicaCorningstone

Posted
Posted

I want to get excited...I really do...

But I swear, it seems like its trending towards a situation in which eastern NC gets screwed. I know that's just the weenie in me talking but I think there is some concern that this will be closer to the coast or slightly inland, in which case 99 times out of 100, east of 95 gets jack and crap as far as frozen. I hope I'll be pleasantly surprised, but I keep getting a sinking feeling :unsure:

Sorry - I had to get this out of my system. My husband's eyes glaze over when I mention the Euro and the GFS and model consensus, and all my other friends just call me a weather nerd and start talking about shopping, so you guys are the only ones who understand the torture I put myself through every winter :wub:

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

All I can say is WOW! I cannot believe I'm going to be out of town during all this..... you all better enjoy the %$&@ out of it.

The only thing keeping me sane is realizing that it will still be on the ground when I get back on Tuesday!

I better see some amazing video and pictures :snowman:

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

I don't really know why I can't send PM's, but can anyone help out with the timing per Euro? Are we talking Flakes showing up at GSP mid afternoon, Christmas Day?

Given that it shows 24hr increments for non paying customers it's between hr72 and hr96 so i.d guess around midnight friday or early morning hrs Christmas.

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

And the local TV mets still will say we don't know what it's going to go yet. I hope people are not going to be caught offguard with this.

They all be yelling tomorrow and friday...i promise!

To all: there are alot of features turned off currently on the board because of the heavy traffic. You may not be able to adjust your profile and other things during this time.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

They all be yelling tomorrow and friday...i promise!

To all: there are alot of features turned off currently on the board because of the heavy traffic. You may not be able to adjust your profile and other things during this time.

It would be better not to wait until Christmas Eve, though. People are going to be busy with other things and not pay attention to the weather forecast then.

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kvskelton

kvskelton

Posted
Posted

All of this going on and the latest Euro had a paltry .25 QPF for TRI. Don't get me wrong, I'll gladly take whatever we can get. I'm just jealous.

Congrat to everyone who is in the bullseye for this monster! Being an old man, I was 29 during the March '93 storm. I don't guess I could ask for another this quick. :lol:

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oconeexman

oconeexman

Posted
Posted

All of this going on and the latest Euro had a paltry .25 QPF for TRI. Don't get me wrong, I'll gladly take whatever we can get. I'm just jealous.

Congrat to everyone who is in the bullseye for this monster! Being an old man, I was 29 during the March '93 storm. I don't guess I could ask for another this quick. :lol:

That would still be a 3-6" snow given the high ratios of the crashing 850 temps!

I'll take it :snowman:

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

I got a call from one of my co-workers today, our local paper is doing a story tomorrow on the snow potential for Christmas. Of course they wanted my thoughts on it, lol. I will post a link when it is published online later tonight. I also got a plug-in for the forum.

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buckeyefan1

buckeyefan1

Posted
Posted

Trying to catch my breath from the play by play of the EURO. WOW is all i can say!!

After the past 3 days I'm still breathless :lol: I'd be extremely happy with just an inch...but to experience something like what the EURO is showing here in the south....that would be simply amazing :wub:

I know! Right? Thing that gets me..."If it's that good, isn't that bad?" I crack up every time someone does that.

Also important to note: Cheezie said "OMG" (bout busted a gut on that one too)

Snowman.gifthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

I believe Robert also dropped OMG the other night too..lol :lol: The pbp has been off the charts :drunk::wub::hug:

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

RAH still going with the GFS. :facepalm:

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...

THE 00Z ECMWF IS EXTREME IN ITS PRECIPITATION GENERATION AND WITHOUT

SUPPORT OF OTHER MODELS. IT DOES HOWEVER MAKE METEOROLOGICAL SENSE

AND HAS AT LEAST A CHANCE TO VERIFY. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF SUPPORTS THE

00Z RUN WITH A STENGTHENING SURFACE LOW CLOSE TO THE COAST AND IS

DISTURBING. THIS WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR ALL OF

CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS OF THE CANADIAN

AND GFS ARE COMING INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN GENERATING A

SURFACE LOW OFF THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND

PLACING IT SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST OF CHARLESTON SUNDAY SUNRISE. THE

GFS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SOLUTIONS IN ITS PLACEMENT

AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. A LOW EITHER STRONGER OR CLOSER TO

SHORE (ECMWF MODELS) WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE IMPACT OF THE EVENT.

THE ECMWF MODEL IS SLOWER WITH A MIDWEST SHORT WAVE... ALLOWING IT

TO PHASE WITH THE GULF COAST ENERGY... PRODUCING AN UPPER TROUGH

FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SATURDAY MORNING. THE

GFS AND CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE AND ALLOW THE

MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO CENTER FURTHER EAST... MAKING FOR A MORE

OFFSHORE SURFACE LOW AT OUR LATITUDE. THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS

FAVORED AT THIS TIME WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SNOW AMOUNTS ARE WAY TOO UNCERTAIN TO DISCUSS MORE THAN GENERALLY.

BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATION PERHAPS IN THE TWELVE HOURS PRIOR TO

NOON SUNDAY... WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS FAYETTEVILLE CLINTON AREA.

WHEREVER PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THIS EVENT... IT WILL BE SNOW.

SNOW TAPERING BACK AS ONE APPROACHES HIGHWAY ONE... AND AREAS TO THE

WEST PERHAPS EVEN MISSING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ENTIRELY. WITH THE EVENT

MORE THAN 72 HOURS OUT... THIS IS BUT ONE OF SEVERAL POSSIBLE

SCENARIOS. SOME VERY LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON WELL

INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST AS THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER NORTH

CAROLINA.

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lilj4425

lilj4425

Posted
Posted

GSP AFD...they appear to be staying the course which is very smart:

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/…

AS OF 225 PM WEDNESDAY…THE GUIDANCE IS STILL SUGGESTING A WHITE

CHRISTMAS. HOWEVER…THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLOWER WITH ONSET.

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIP…IF ANY…WILL BE MINIMAL FRI

NITE AND CONTAINED TO THE MTNS. THE NAM IS SLOWEST OF ALL KEEPING

MOST OF THE AREA DRY UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON…WHILE THE GEM GLOBAL AND

THE GFS ARE THE FASTEST TAPERING THINGS OFF ACROSS THE NW BY SAT

AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF…WHICH HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT THROUGH

FCST…HAS PRECIP OVER THE WRN CWFA SAT MORN AND ALL AREAS BY

AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF TIMING BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OPERATIONAL

MDL PACK. THE GEM AND GFS STILL TRACK THE SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH…

KEEPING BEST PRECIP FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THE SREF/NAM AND ECMWF

HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA IN A DEFORMATION ZONE AND

AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE GUIDANCE IS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH

THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILES THAT SHOW SNOW WILL BY THE MAIN

P-TYPE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON

HIGHS FOR SAT GIVEN THE SLOWER ONSET. THIS COULD ALLOW A MIX WITH OR

CHANGEOVER TO RAIN SOUTH OF I-85 IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA. GIVEN THE

MDL VARIABILITY AND THE IMPORTANCE OF THIS FCST PERIOD…WILL KEEP

THE FCST GENERALLY AS IS EXCEPT WITH THE SLOWER ONSET FRI NITE GIVEN

THE AGREEMENT THERE. THE MDLS STILL SUGGEST A SNOWFALL OF SEVERAL

INCHES FROM CHRISTMAS DAY INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER…THE BULK OF

THE ACCUMULATION COULD BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY IF THE

SLOWING TREND CONTINUES.

IN THE MEAN TIME…FRIDAY WILL BE A QUIET WX DAY WITH RIDGING SFC

AND ALOFT. LOWS AND HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL.

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted

I think an interesting comparison to this stom, at least in terms of crashing 850's, is 1/23/03. That storm of course dropped 8.5" in CLT with .18 liquid equivalent.

Wow that's very impressive. Maybe some of the North GA folks can get some ratios like that considering were on the cold side of the storm

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

If anybody gets plastered it'll be the RDU area...mark my words!

It just doesn't make sense to me. The Euro has been more consistent, and the GFS last run actually trended more towards the Euro. They just seem so conservative. A lot of folks will be traveling this weekend, and with stores closing early on Christmas Eve and people busy doing other things for Christmas, there really is not a lot of time to warn the public. It just seems they are trying to save face in case it is not a big storm instead of warning the public a big storm is a very real possibility. Same thing with the local media.

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kanc2001

kanc2001

Posted
Posted

It just doesn't make sense to me. The Euro has been more consistent, and the GFS last run actually trended more towards the Euro. They just seem so conservative.

the euro is a crazy extreme once in a lifetime solution. its hard to ride that this far out when climatology still says otherwise

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