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Christmas Storm I (general banter)


WeatherNC

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Ok. I need to learn some about forecast models... My thinking is that the 18Z NAM would have better information about it since it's boundaries are garnered from the global models from runs 6 hours prior to the current one (Like the 18Z gets boundaries set by data taken at 12Z) I know this is potentially wrong, but I would like some clarification on this. It could mean the difference between the 12Z just being completely wrong, or the 18Z just getting hopes up for a storm to be taking track through the northern gulf without much moisture to the north. Thanks in advance for the answer. : )

Happy forecasting!

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Van Denton's horn honking from yesterday went to a serious buzz kill today on his facebook page;

Updated 4:55 pm

We are now within 48 hours and confidence is growing in the forecast. Yesterday, we gave a general forecast that the east should see the most snow and the west the least. Today, that trend continues for east of the mountains.

There are 2 parts to this weekend system.

#1. The upper disturbancet will cross the state NW to SE on Saturday/Sat night bringing a chance for snow showers. With temperatures reaching near 40 in the Triad on Saturday....the lighter precip could be mixed with rain before finally becoming mostly snow as we turn colder. Amounts will be light and precip. could be patchy. In the Eastern part of the state, this may begin as rain before mixing with and changing to snow from W to E during the night into Sunday morning.

#2. The 2nd part is the coastal low and this forecast to track along our coast on Sunday and intensify. Most models now keep this system weaker and farther east. However, the European models still makes it strong sooner and closer to the coast. Since that model is all by itself, we are leaning with the weaker solution. The weaker solution may not bring snow west of I-95 with the coastal storm. The European solution would bring heavier snows to NC and some of that all the way back to the Triad.

Below are the 2 forecast snowfall projections. One the most likely and the other is the Extreme European solution which only has about a 10% chance. I have attached images of both solutions. Keep in mind we are leaning heavily toward the lighter solution.

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