Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The NAM has me stepping back from the ledge a bit. 850s at least support all snow north of Atlanta, or at least a very brief period of rain before a changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Ok. I need to learn some about forecast models... My thinking is that the 18Z NAM would have better information about it since it's boundaries are garnered from the global models from runs 6 hours prior to the current one (Like the 18Z gets boundaries set by data taken at 12Z) I know this is potentially wrong, but I would like some clarification on this. It could mean the difference between the 12Z just being completely wrong, or the 18Z just getting hopes up for a storm to be taking track through the northern gulf without much moisture to the north. Thanks in advance for the answer. : ) Happy forecasting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'd love to know what it shows for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 1 to 2 inches would be nice. I wonder if this would be all snow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I guess the inland track killed you? It absolutely did. Then they tried to say there would be wrap around at the end but that never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's looking (maybe) like the Triad might be able to get an inch or two of snow out of this. At this point, it would be wrong to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's going to be funny if this turns out like Jan 2000, when the mets were only calling for 1 or 2 inches of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Hilarious that the NAM and the FFC disco are now our friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really impressive that between all of our christmas storm threads there's now 350K views of those threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Really impressive that between all of our christmas storm threads there's now 350K views of those threads. Yep we are freakin junkies....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Did the ATL area media website editors pass elementary school? From wsbradio-"Chandley's current forecast is for snow showers in metro Atlanta, with more snow acclamations possible in north and northeast of metro Atlanta Saturday." From wsbtv-"Snow forecasted for Christmas Day" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyredog28 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Van Denton's horn honking from yesterday went to a serious buzz kill today on his facebook page; Updated 4:55 pm We are now within 48 hours and confidence is growing in the forecast. Yesterday, we gave a general forecast that the east should see the most snow and the west the least. Today, that trend continues for east of the mountains. There are 2 parts to this weekend system. #1. The upper disturbancet will cross the state NW to SE on Saturday/Sat night bringing a chance for snow showers. With temperatures reaching near 40 in the Triad on Saturday....the lighter precip could be mixed with rain before finally becoming mostly snow as we turn colder. Amounts will be light and precip. could be patchy. In the Eastern part of the state, this may begin as rain before mixing with and changing to snow from W to E during the night into Sunday morning. #2. The 2nd part is the coastal low and this forecast to track along our coast on Sunday and intensify. Most models now keep this system weaker and farther east. However, the European models still makes it strong sooner and closer to the coast. Since that model is all by itself, we are leaning with the weaker solution. The weaker solution may not bring snow west of I-95 with the coastal storm. The European solution would bring heavier snows to NC and some of that all the way back to the Triad. Below are the 2 forecast snowfall projections. One the most likely and the other is the Extreme European solution which only has about a 10% chance. I have attached images of both solutions. Keep in mind we are leaning heavily toward the lighter solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This phase stuff sounds confusing. It needs to go north no wait south no wait west....it's too fast it's too slow...more northern stream more southern wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Someone made these "Weenie Suicide Warnings" at Talkweather: http://k002.kiwi6.com/uploads/hotlink?id=366fbwhl54 http://s243.photobucket.com/albums/ff86/weatherguy_2006/?action=view¤t=snow.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Someone made these "Weenie Suicide Warnings" at Talkweather: http://k002.kiwi6.co...k?id=366fbwhl54 http://s243.photobuc...urrent=snow.mp4 That was hilarious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Someone made these "Weenie Suicide Warnings" at Talkweather: http://k002.kiwi6.co...k?id=366fbwhl54 http://s243.photobuc...urrent=snow.mp4 Hahahahahaha !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Bon Jovi -- says it best about this storm !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 WRAL said we will see some snow here Christmas day! But the heavy snow ill be east of 95 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Will someone explain what the GFS ensemble is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 OH EURO OH EURO, Whereto has thy magic fled to EURO. Deny thy wisdom and complete our dreams. If thy 0z bidding continues to fold then your demise will be foretold. Show us our dreams in our eyes and yee shall be praised to the skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Step back from the cliff.........wait on the 0z suite. This should be the timeframe for the start of the final trend. I know that last year was an El-Nino but we all saw the final 36 hour north trend that all the models had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I see you CAD. Like your post in the main thread about hoping onto to hope. Hey this was a beast to track. I think we will all learn some great lessons out of this. The title of this song might say it all. Classic album btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Someone made these "Weenie Suicide Warnings" at Talkweather: http://k002.kiwi6.co...k?id=366fbwhl54 http://s243.photobuc...urrent=snow.mp4 I'll admit. I really did laugh out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 DAM, glad i've been gone all day...guess i'll offer to wrap presents now...not much to look at on the weather...what a difference a day makes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i predict this thing is gonna come around and cover the bodies of the weenies at the bottom of the cliff with 6 inches of snow. 5" for CLT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 i predict this thing is gonna come around and cover the bodies of the weenies at the bottom of the cliff with 6 inches of snow. 5" for CLT My forecast technology disagrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 My forecast technology disagrees. and thats been going great so far..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Merry Christmas! I guess now we have no model to trust outside of 48-72hrs...gonna be like the old days, we'll know when it gets here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 24, 2010 Share Posted December 24, 2010 Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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