Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I am going to enjoy Christmas regardless, but it would be nice to just see SOME snow falling. I just can't believe we go from having a monster storm, though, to nothing at all just 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this is why I don't think the models are right going from one extreme to the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I think i'm going to just hang out in this here rant room from now on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 It's sort of like a high-speed train going 200+ mph hitting a small car stuck on railroad tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 this is why I don't think the models are right going from one extreme to the other. I'm rooting for the Canadian just for kicks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I'm rooting for the Canadian just for kicks! I'm rooting for none of them just for kicks. Amazing how things can change in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now I know why Widre is always so pesimistic. The funny thing is when a run is great everyone is shouting how much snow is going to fall. But then when a run is not good nobody says anything about snow amounts for anywhere, even if it could be just an inch. I'd love to know if there is even a chance of seeing any snow at all on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now I know why Widre is always so pesimistic. The funny thing is when a run is great everyone is shouting how much snow is going to fall. But then when a run is not good nobody says anything about snow amounts for anywhere, even if it could be just an inch. I'd love to know if there is even a chance of seeing any snow at all on Christmas. Yes. You will probably see some snow on Christmas. It just won't accumulate or only slightly so. Wait, you're going to Ohio for Christmas, right? If not, then nevermind what I just wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yes. You will probably see some snow on Christmas. It just won't accumulate or only slightly so. Thanks. That would be great. I dare not ask in the other thread, but it's kind of hard to know when everyone just says this run sucks and leaves it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Thanks. That would be great. I dare not ask in the other thread, but it's kind of hard to know when everyone just says this run sucks and leaves it at that. People got spoiled with the historic euro runs and now that it doesnt all everyone talks about are how bad the run was and "storm cancel" and how " this time tomorrow itll show partly cloudy skies". Its ridiculous. One of my dreams has been to see snow on christmas, to get an inch or two would be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This is encouraging. FOX 21 (geer) Andy Wood's thoughts on the Euro.analysis on the Euro: "It looks as if the ridge axis over the Rockies is just a little too far east to allow this thing enough room to phase early enough for a “hug the coast” type pf storm. As we are closing in on the event it seems the models are starting to fall into a consensus of the system tracking further out to sea with the heavier precip remaining near the coast. Eastern NC getting nailed as it looks. The question is… could it trend a little back to the west? Yep, and importantly… sometimes these southern stream systems are more resilient than the models give them credit for. We are talking about a southern stream system that just made a POND out of Las Vegas so it isn’t over yet." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Always enjoy tacking southern snow storms. Guess I'll just go check out the 384hr GFS. Seems to have about the same reliability as the EURO at 84 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Now I know why Widre is always so pesimistic. The funny thing is when a run is great everyone is shouting how much snow is going to fall. But then when a run is not good nobody says anything about snow amounts for anywhere, even if it could be just an inch. I'd love to know if there is even a chance of seeing any snow at all on Christmas. Not quite true, Brick. You can learn every excruciating detail about prospects for a half-inch flizzard in CLT or ATL. But if the folks east of I-95 are the only ones in the game (on paper) -- nada. IMBY analyses are as big a problem as IMBY requests for info. In fact, they're a bigger problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not quite true, Brick. You can learn every excruciating detail about prospects for a half-inch flizzard in CLT or ATL. But if the folks east of I-95 are the only ones in the game (on paper) -- nada. IMBY analyses are as big a problem as IMBY requests for info. In fact, they're a bigger problem. Very true. And if someone says this run is a fail, and you ask if they mean for everyone or just their backyard, then you are the one accused of asking about IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Not quite true, Brick. You can learn every excruciating detail about prospects for a half-inch flizzard in CLT or ATL. But if the folks east of I-95 are the only ones in the game (on paper) -- nada. IMBY analyses are as big a problem as IMBY requests for info. In fact, they're a bigger problem. This is the Post of the Year candidate. Spot on description of how much of the "conversation" works around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This will be hilarious if the NAM shows the super solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 If you keep up with the pbp and know anything about the previous runs, you can tell if it is going to be a good or bad run. I never pull up the models or look at them until after the fact and I have been able to know what needs to happen as the pbp is being given, in particular we need a phase closer to the NW GOM than the NE GOM for best precip chances across the board. Stop whining when your question doesn't get answered because it will eventually, patience my young grasshopper. Enough of my rant concerning that though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This will be hilarious if the NAM shows the super solution. that would be sort of funny. i just want to see some snow, and on christmas would love a good blast, would gladly take and be happy with an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This will be hilarious if the NAM shows the super solution. I guarantee that everyone would be raving about how awesome the NAM is within 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 strongwxnc posted this on the main thread. I think it needs repeating. This is a local met who does a great job at his job.again from Andy Wood at Fox 21 (GSP location) http://foxcarolinawe...ernoon-thought/ "I would strongly advise keeping a close eye on this Southern Stream (pacific-originating) Storm as it moves across the desert southwest and into Texas. Data may be under-playing the strength of it a bit… or quite a bit. I say this especially since a few very well-respected forecasters in the northeastern US have mentioned it this morning. One thing is for sure… this roller-coaster ride isn’t over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx n of atl Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not know how the meteorologist did it back in march of 1993 to forecast an accurate storm well in advance and warn the public in time. 2010... you really have to have this board to examine the models to slice and dice them.. one just can not hold the models as truth (no matter how many days it says it or who says it). It seems many storms these days come down to the bottom of the ninth inning. I am very much appreciative of all the mets, pros, amateurs, hobbyist on this board to solve the matrix everyday. Many of you should be very proud of yourselves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I do not know how the meteorologist did it back in march of 1993 to forecast an accurate storm well in advance and warn the public in time. 2010... you really have to have this board to examine the models to slice and dice them.. one just can not hold the models as truth (no matter how many days it says it or who says it). It seems many storms these days come down to the bottom of the ninth inning. I am very much appreciative of all the mets, pros, amateurs, hobbyist on this board to solve the matrix everyday. Many of you should be very proud of yourselves! I believe that in '93 the major models at the time all locked on to a historic storm pretty early on. This time only the Euro really showed a huge storm so there has been model disagreement the entire time. I definitely appreciate all the time and effort the mets put into this storm and every storm shown by the models, even though it looks like things won't work out this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 I believe that in '93 the major models at the time all locked on to a historic storm pretty early on. This time only the Euro really showed a huge storm so there has been model disagreement the entire time. I definitely appreciate all the time and effort the mets put into this storm and every storm shown by the models, even though it looks like things won't work out this time. The 1993 storm goes down as one of my all time let downs as I was on long island. Original forecast: 24-36 inches with 75-100 mph wind gusts Actual: 8 inches of snow then very heavy rain and winds nowhere close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 1993 storm goes down as one of my all time let downs as I was on long island. Original forecast: 24-36 inches with 75-100 mph wind gusts Actual: 8 inches of snow then very heavy rain and winds nowhere close to that. It wasn't anything historic here in terms of snow amounts from what I've heard. 4 inches for the airport, 6 inches or so here. Great grandmother slid off the road and totaled her car during the storm near Montgomery though (she was OK), and we got 2 feet or so up in Hartford (too young to remember unfortunately). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 1993 storm goes down as one of my all time let downs as I was on long island. Original forecast: 24-36 inches with 75-100 mph wind gusts Actual: 8 inches of snow then very heavy rain and winds nowhere close to that. ouch, talk about a let down! i wasnt here at the time, but apparently ne ga was to get a lot of snow, and while they did get some, nothing like they were supposed to (and no winds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 The 1993 storm goes down as one of my all time let downs as I was on long island. Original forecast: 24-36 inches with 75-100 mph wind gusts Actual: 8 inches of snow then very heavy rain and winds nowhere close to that. I guess the inland track killed you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 18Z NAM maybe showing some love...dont need this to run a superstorm just hope it stops the bleeding and get us moving back in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Yeah, NAM is a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 This appears to be very, very close to a phase. This thing is getting down to the wire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 23, 2010 Share Posted December 23, 2010 Gotta love the analysis of the model runs. One person says it is bad, one says it is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.