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Christmas Storm I (general banter)

WeatherNC

By WeatherNC,
in Southeastern States

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phil882

phil882

Posted
Posted

Nice discussion by GSP

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...SOME COMPELLING CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCEPOINT TO AN EVENT OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS OVER THE PIEDMONT OF THECAROLINAS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN REMARKABLYCONSISTENT FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK OF ADEVELOPING LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH/NRN GULF COAST ON SATURDAY ANDSATURDAY NIGHT. THE GEM GLOBAL HAS MORE OR LESS BEEN FOLLOWING THATLEAD. FINALLY...ON THIS MODEL CYCLE...THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN AFASTER NORTHERN HOLDOUT...IS ON BOARD WITH MOVING THE MAIN LOWPRESSURE CENTER SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULFMEX COAST ON CHRISTMASDAY. ON THE ONE HAND...THIS HAS RAISED CONFIDENCE THAT OUR MOSTLYWHITE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK. ON THE OTHERHAND...CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS IS WEAKENED WITH ITS MAJOR DEPARTURE.CONFIDENCE WILL GROW FURTHER IF THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPS WITH THESLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. NO MATTER WHICH MODEL HAS THEBETTER TRACK...ALL THE MODELS NOW FEATURE PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUESTHAT FAVOR ALL SNOW OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECASTSOUNDINGS LACK A WARM NOSE...SO IT LOOKS LIKE A RAIN/SNOW PROBLEM.THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT WOULD MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN WOULD BEROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARTWELL TO ANDERSON AND LAURENS. TEMPSSHOULD BE WELL BELOW THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SCENARIO. WITH MUCH OFTHE PRECIP TYPE ISSUES OUT OF THE WAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE OFA TIMING AND QPF PROBLEM...THE GFS STILL BEING 6-12 HOURS FASTERWITH ONSET BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE CHRISTMAS DAY. THE SLOWERECMWF WOULD HAVE ONSET AFTER SUNRISE TO NOON SATURDAY. WITH THE GFSON BOARD...THE FORECAST IS BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR TIMING.POP RAMPS UP FROM CHANCE TO LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY MORNING ANDAFTERNOON. IN AN EFFORT TO REIN IN THE EXCITEMENT...THE QPFGENERALLY FOLLOWS THE LOWER AMOUNTS ON THE GFS...WHICH STILL GIVESUS A UNIFORM 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAYAND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ELBERT...ABBEVILLE...ANDGREENWOOD COUNTIES THAT STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE.IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SLOWER AND STRONGER ECMWF HAS PLENTY OFSUPPORT FOR ITS SOLUTION. IF THAT MODEL WERE TO VERIFY...WE WOULDHAVE A MAJOR WINTER STORM MOVING UP THE COAST OF THE CAROLINASSATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THE PIEDMONT WOULD STAND TO GET UPTO DOUBLE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. EITHER WAY...IF WE CONSIDER AWHITE CHRISTMAS TO BE ONE INCH ACCUMULATION ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THATHAS NOT HAPPENED IN THE AREA FROM GREENVILLE (1963) TO CHARLOTTE(1947) IN NEARLY 50 TO 60 YEARS. IF THIS FORECAST WORKS OUT...ITCOULD BE AN EVENT THAT WILL BE TALKED ABOUT FOR THE REST OF OURLIVES. THE POTENTIAL DOWNFALL WOULD BE IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN EVENMORE...IN WHICH CASE THE BULK OF THE SNOW WOULD FALL ON SUNDAY. STAYTUNED!IN THE MEAN TIME...WE HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THURSDAY INTOFRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING SUPPORTS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN FROM THENW WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING STORM. KEPTTHE FORECAST AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO ABLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.&&.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST BEGINS AT 12Z ON SUNDAYWITH THE LATEST 00Z GFS APPEARING TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE LESSPROGRESSIVE AND MORE AMPLIFIED ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS. AT THE BEGINNINGOF THE PERIOD...MODELS HAVE THE N/S AXIS OF THE UPPER TROF JUST TOOUR WEST WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY NEARLY IN PHASE WITH THELARGER UPPER TROF. THE ECMWF IS STILL DEEPER WITH THE H5 TROFHOWEVER THE 00Z GFS IS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE ECMWF AT LEAST FOR THEFIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. AFTER DAY 5...THE GFS CONTINUES TOHIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND TILTED UPPER LVL OMEGA PATTERN THAT PERSISTSTHRU DAY 7. THE ECMWF IS LESS AMPLIFIED AND CONTINUES TO BE THE MOREREASONABLE SYNOPTIC SOLUTION. THE UPPER TROF TRANSITIONS INTO ACLOSED LOW BY EARLY MON AND EVENTUALLY PHASES WITH A NORTHERN STREAMTROF OVER FAR EASTERN CANADA BY TUES. UPPER LVL NORTHERLY FLOWEVENTUALLY TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW AS THE PATTERNFLATTENS OUT.AT THE SFC...THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE LOWFARTHER SOUTH...HOWEVER IT IS ABOUT 6-12 HRS FASTER THAN THE ECMWFWRT MOVING THE LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND AWAY FROM THE CWFA.THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN...WITH THE BULKOF THE PRECIP FALLING LATE SAT THRU MID DAY SUN. IT ALSO HAS THE LOWHUGGING THE COASTLINE MUCH CLOSER AS IT MOVES NE. IF THIS SOLUTIONPANS OUT...THEN WE COULD SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP LINGER THRU LATE SUNAND INTO EARLY MON. FOR NOW...I HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ANDGFS SOLUTIONS THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE 18Z HPC GUIDANCE. BY 00ZMON...ONLY A SOLID CHANCE POP REMAINS OVER THE NC MTS WITH POPSTAPERING OFF THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS NW FLOW BUILDS INTHE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. BASED SOLELY ON LOW LVLTHICKNESSES...BOTH LONG MODELS WOULD SUPPORT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRECWFA FOR SUN...MON...AND TUES...HOWEVER I EXPECT DAYTIME SFC TEMPSTO RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES AND SUNSHINEINCREASES. FURTHERMORE...SOUNDINGS DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTERROUGHLY 18Z...SO I DONT EXPECT MUCH WINTER PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MTSAT THIS TIME.

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

Well I'm so upset! I can't believe I'll be out of town and miss out the fun this weekend.....

However I'm thrilled that the the SE looks to finally score a big one and my brothers who have never seen a white christmas may finally get theirs! The more I think about it though I will be back on Tuesday so whatever falls this weekend will still be around so I'll still get to enjoy it, just wont see it fall! Merry Christmas to the best group of folks around, I'll be drinking myself silly Christmas day while many of you enjoy a blizzard :drunk:

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Wow, just caught up -- great job once again with the PbP, and overnight discussions. Very much appreciated. Like someone (Robert?) said in the Storm thread, it's going to be hard to believe what's possibly in store with today supposedly making it way up into the lower 50's. Thanks again everyone!

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

thank goodness for this thread! just woke up and checked the board and cant believe the storm is still showing up :thumbsup: still have snow in my forecast for sat. so i am stoked

and also, um, sort of on the outs with my family lol. i informed them last night that if there was snow imby for christmas i would be spending it in the snow and not with them. lets say it didnt go over too well :scooter:

time to check things out....but could it be a white christmas in the se??? :guitar:

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Just a FWIW -- JB has finally got on board with snow in the se :whistle:

The call here is for the axis of heaviest snows to run closer to I-40 than I-70 for the southern plains to the Carolinas before the turn to the northeast. The White Christmas areal forecast of 50% will verify with snow even further south over the east from the Carolinas to the Miss valley before Christmas is over, but the northeast, if its going to get bombed, will wait till Sunday and Monday.

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kvskelton

kvskelton

Posted
Posted

Just a quick thank you to all the Mets that post here and work so hard to keep us informed! I really enjoyed the video for today on the blog site belonging to msuwx. It laid out this system in terms even a land surveyor could understand. :)

I'm really looking forward to seeing how this system plays out. I have to do a lot of traveling on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but I'll be just as happy sitting at home watching it snow! The National Weather Service in Morristown, TN issued a Special Weather Statement at 3:46am this morning containing the following:

THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...AND THERE IS

STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL

FALL AS RAIN...OR THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH AWAY...THAT

LESS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN OUR AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME

IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL FALL IN THE REGION

AND SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW THE BEST

CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS

SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST TENNESSEE...THE

MOUNTAINS AND OTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

They are definitely uncertain this far out, though I'm sure that will change as the event gets closer. I know this system is shaping up to be much more intense in central NC but it will be interesting to see how it plays out on this side of the mountains!

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Amos83

Amos83

Posted
Posted

thank goodness for this thread! just woke up and checked the board and cant believe the storm is still showing up :thumbsup: still have snow in my forecast for sat. so i am stoked

and also, um, sort of on the outs with my family lol. i informed them last night that if there was snow imby for christmas i would be spending it in the snow and not with them. lets say it didnt go over too well :scooter:

time to check things out....but could it be a white christmas in the se??? :guitar:

lol, yeah I'm scheduled to fly to S. Illinois tomorrow night but the thought of pretending to be really sick so I could stay here has crossed my mind. If my wife was not already up there I would put a lot more thought into it. Oh well, I'll just have to make my monster snowman Tuesday night when I get back assuming the snow is not hard as a rock from the freaking cold air that will settle in with the snowpack.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Just a FWIW -- JB has finally got on board with snow in the se :whistle:

The call here is for the axis of heaviest snows to run closer to I-40 than I-70 for the southern plains to the Carolinas before the turn to the northeast. The White Christmas areal forecast of 50% will verify with snow even further south over the east from the Carolinas to the Miss valley before Christmas is over, but the northeast, if its going to get bombed, will wait till Sunday and Monday.

hmmmm....didnt he call for a white christmas for a lot of nc a while back? maybe he is going to be right after all :popcorn: i am still not thinking historic, but it certainly looks good for snow in a large part of the se this weekend.

lol, yeah I'm scheduled to fly to S. Illinois tomorrow night but the thought of pretending to be really sick so I could stay here has crossed my mind. If my wife was not already up there I would put a lot more thought into it. Oh well, I'll just have to make my monster snowman Tuesday night when I get back assuming the snow is not hard as a rock from the freaking cold air that will settle in with the snowpack.

lol - i might have thought (or done) that before :whistle: but christmas is also my birthday and of course its never snowed (in my 40s) so i just flat out told them christmas eve i would be watching the computer and if it showed snow imby i was going to be there :scooter: (and if we wake up to sunshine dont even bother to talk to me :lol: )

Can someone catch me up on what the models showed overnight? Is it still the GFS vs everyone else? I guess the Euro is still showing a big storm for my area.

By the way, I think it's silly we have to have a separate thread for this. Some folks take it way too seriously on here.

it doesnt bother me...i thought about a separate thread too (i wasnt sure what did or didnt count in the main thread :yikes: ) we can keep the other one more serious discussion and use this one for the general excitement banter that precedes a storm :guitar:

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Holy crap!!

Got up at 6am and had to run a million places while I was reading the 14 pages from last night on my Black Berry. Finally home and can get caught up before I start to paint. Vacation :snowman: has started!!!!

:thumbsup: ditto! although maybe i should be at work to keep my mind off this weekend lol

i was stunned when i got up and saw that the storm was still a go :popcorn:

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Jet Stream Rider

Jet Stream Rider

Posted
Posted

Can someone catch me up on what the models showed overnight? Is it still the GFS vs everyone else? I guess the Euro is still showing a big storm for my area.

By the way, I think it's silly we have to have a separate thread for this. Some folks take it way too seriously on here.

it doesnt bother me...i thought about a separate thread too (i wasnt sure what did or didnt count in the main thread :yikes: ) we can keep the other one more serious discussion and use this one for the general excitement banter that precedes a storm :guitar:

And we get to use the emonicons with no regrets! :scooter::snowman::lol:

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Brian

Brian

Posted
Posted

I honestly cannot believe the demise of The Weather Channel. I turned it on at 840am and they have had 22 commercials, with 2 minute bits, talk too fast, NBC has ruined a once great channel to watch, it is a fooking mess. I miss the channel of yesteryear, :gun_bandana::gun_bandana::gun_bandana:

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kanc2001

kanc2001

Posted
Posted

Just a FWIW -- JB has finally got on board with snow in the se :whistle:

The call here is for the axis of heaviest snows to run closer to I-40 than I-70 for the southern plains to the Carolinas before the turn to the northeast. The White Christmas areal forecast of 50% will verify with snow even further south over the east from the Carolinas to the Miss valley before Christmas is over, but the northeast, if its going to get bombed, will wait till Sunday and Monday.

crap, we are jinxed now :axe:

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