JerseyWx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 5 hours ago, winterwx21 said: Do you guys think we could see a rare May frost early next week? I always plant the tomatoes during the first few days of May, but I'm a little hesitant to do that right now because of how chilly it looks early next week. Right now to me it looks as if it could drop to about 40 monday night which would be ok, but it would only have to trend a little colder to get to frost level. I'm wondering if I should plant late this year to be safe. Definitely think we can see some temps in the 30's next week, especially in the typical cool spots. Frost might be hard though, since you need clear and calm conditions. Have to keep an eye on the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 27 minutes ago, Morris said: And gusting to 43 mph on the next hour's update. Dew point down to 38. Looks like today and yesterday will be the warmest for a while. Be interesting to see if the ridge rebuilds again in the East later in the month and delivers a summer-like Memorial Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Looks like today was the last over +10 day for a while. Be interesting to see if the trough can reload again out West later in the month and produce a summer-like Memorial Day weekend. It should be less than +10 before midnight. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 There should be a wind advisory out. The skyscraper I work near the top of is rockin' and rollin', and it only does that in 45mph+ gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, Morris said: It should be less than +10 before midnight. No? Yeah, That's right. The min for the day should be before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 17 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: There should be a wind advisory out. The skyscraper I work near the top of is rockin' and rollin', and it only does that in 45mph+ gusts. Rooftop station at Queens College just gusted to 48 mph at 179 feet. You can also see how much cooler the station runs from surrounding stations at the surface today. 74 at 179 feet and 77...JFK...78...LGA. http://www.nysmesonet.org/data/meteogram#?stid=QUEE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Frequent gusts here over 30mph. Don't understand the lack of a wind advisory, unless this wasn't well modeled. Either way they have enough based on current obs to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Watch for the potential for wind gusts to beat guidance later as low level lapse rates really steepen with the cold front. You were spot on with this, very gusty up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: You were spot on with this, very gusty up here Winds usually beat guidance when the mixed layer makes it near or above 800 mb. Numerous small branches and twigs down around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Sprinkles here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, That's right. The min for the day should be before midnight. And only 63. +10 behind a strong cold front. That's how sucky the overall pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tekken_Guy Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Given the big cooldown, is it safe to say May will end up below normal? Or can the end of the month warm up enough for a positive departure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whamby Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 in NE it's a safe bet... overall East Coast, different crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Tekken_Guy said: Given the big cooldown, is it safe to say May will end up below normal? Or can the end of the month warm up enough for a positive departure? The EPS brings the familiar warmer Western Trough- Eastern Ridge pattern back as we approach May 20th through the 31st. So the last 10 days of the month will determine the final monthly departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Wasn't it supposed to be cooler this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS brings the familiar warmer Western Trough- Eastern Ridge pattern back as we approach May 20th through the 31st. So the last 10 days of the month will determine the final monthly departure. given our recent history, we'll probably throw up some +15's in there and go above normal. However we'd be looking at a +1 month and not +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS brings the familiar warmer Western Trough- Eastern Ridge pattern back as we approach May 20th through the 31st. So the last 10 days of the month will determine the final monthly departure. given our recent history, we'll probably throw up some +15's in there and go above normal. However we'd be looking at a +1 month and not +3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 3, 2017 Author Share Posted May 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: given our recent history, we'll probably throw up some +15's in there and go above normal. However we'd be looking at a +1 month and not +3 It's been the 2010's tradition to get a nice warm up at the end of May. Newark high temperatures May 20-31 2016...96 2015...91 2014...88 2013...94 2012...92 2011...92 2010...95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Morris said: Wasn't it supposed to be cooler this morning? It's much cooler here, probably close to 10* lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Next 8 days about 4degs. BN (55 vs. 59). In addition the SE Ridge looks dead until at least the 17th. or so, when a flat looking pattern returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: given our recent history, we'll probably throw up some +15's in there and go above normal. However we'd be looking at a +1 month and not +3 +1 these days is really below what's been happening lately so I would say that's cooler than the new more realistic normal and not above that 1981 -2010 average which is fiction in today's climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: It's been the 2010's tradition to get a nice warm up at the end of May. Newark high temperatures May 20-31 2016...96 2015...91 2014...88 2013...94 2012...92 2011...92 2010...95 Overall since 2010 the climate has really been warming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Chilly May 3rd here.. Currently 57° w/ a brisk NW wind. Sun is out as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 hours ago, snywx said: Chilly May 3rd here.. Currently 57° w/ a brisk NW wind. Sun is out as well It's ridiculously nice outside right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 18z cut back just a bit on precip. Swinging back and forth each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 28 minutes ago, Morris said: 18z cut back just a bit on precip. Swinging back and forth each run. The ULL is still sitting siting in the Gulf of Maine day 10 as another closed low enters the TN Valley. Wash, rinse, repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Yup, another cutoff low on the 18z GFS day 10. Spins up a nasty surface low with almost a perfectly developed CCB raking the entire area. Pure Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 52 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yup, another cutoff low on the 18z GFS day 10. Spins up a nasty surface low with almost a perfectly developed CCB raking the entire area. Pure Miller A. Upper Level System of Gloom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Down to 36 in Westhampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 29 minutes ago, Morris said: Down to 36 in Westhampton. Wow, they should get below freezing tonight easily. 20s? I expect a lot of places to see frosts/freezes on Tuesday morning as the cold core crests overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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