NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: The big rains are in and out...if you count the clouds and light showers after, then yes I agree. Today's Euro will be telling-will confirm if last night's 0z was a wet fluke. I'm just saying, in out can be misleading. Thanks for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 The 12z GFS is robust with wrap around rains into next week. Should be more than just sprinkles at times, though it won't be a steady rain the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 saturday looks good if you like graupel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 74 and perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 May stats for NYC...the long term average May temperature is close to 62.0...1870-2016...it's has not been that cool since 2008...we have not seen a May day 95 degrees or higher since 1996...we have not seen a May day with a minimum below 40 since 1978... Average Temperature and precipitation... decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation... 1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8.......................................................2.......2.50" 1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07" 1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67" 1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41" 1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39" 1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59" 1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23" 1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 1946 1950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29" 1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02" 1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 1977 1980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39" 1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16" 2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66" 2010's....64.7...68.5...62.8......92......41......89.4......45.4.........5.......4.50" 1870- 2009......61.8...65.9...58.0..........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64" 1980- 2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4..........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07" warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest...... 68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 1903 68.5 in 2015...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 1887 67.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 1964 67.0 in 1896...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 1880 67.0 in 1944...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 1905 66.4 in 1959...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 1939 66.4 in 1965...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 1877 66.0 in 1986...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 1935 65.8 in 1975...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 1899 65.7 in 1993...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944 warmest temperatures... 99 5/19/1962 97 5/29/1969 97 5/30/1987 96 5/20/1996 96 5/22/1941 96 5/27/1880 96 5/29/1987 96 5/31/1895 95 5/25/1880 95 5/26/1880 95 5/27/1914 coldest temperatures... 32 5/06/1891 34 5/05/1891 35 5/01/1880 35 5/09/1947 36 5/11/1913 36 5/10/1966 36 5/10/1947 36 5/09/1977 36 5/03/1874 36 5/01/1876 coldest max days... 43 5/3/1873 43 5/5/1891 44 5/7/1967 44 5/5/1917 44 5/9/1977 45 5/1/1917 45 5/2/1962 45 5/5/1978 45 5/6/1891 46 5/25/1967+ warmest min. days... 76 5/31/1987 75 5/31/1895 75 5/31/2013 74 5/09/2000 74 5/20/1996 74 5/27/1908 74 5/29/1969 74 5/30/1987 73 5/25/1880 73 5/27/2016 73 5/28/1959 73 5/30/1986+ Warmest monthly minimum... 49 in 2012 49 in 1982 49 in 2014 48 in 1899 48 in 2015 48 in 1910 47 in 1942 47 in 1944 47 in 1969 47 in 1991 46 in 2011 46 in 2000 46 in 1999 + =and other years... coldest monthly maximum... 75 in 1924 79 in 2005 79 in 2003 79 in 1983 79 in 1928 79 in 1927 79 in 1915 80 in 1968 80 in 1882 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 UKMET is still out of range, but it looks quite robust, maybe the most robust of all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: UKMET is still out of range, but it looks quite robust, maybe the most robust of all the guidance. GFS might be underdoing that eastern piece of heavy precip. All models have the big slug up towards BUF and CLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 out of range, but the NAM sees the heavier eastern rains and also has the BUF jackpot too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GFS might be underdoing that eastern piece of heavy precip. All models have the big slug up towards BUF and CLE The GFS seems weaker in the mid-levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: out of range, but the NAM sees the heavier eastern rains and also has the BUF jackpot too. The LLJ cranks right over the area, verbatim that's several rounds of training convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Do you guys think we could see a rare May frost early next week? I always plant the tomatoes during the first few days of May, but I'm a little hesitant to do that right now because of how chilly it looks early next week. Right now to me it looks as if it could drop to about 40 monday night which would be ok, but it would only have to trend a little colder to get to frost level. I'm wondering if I should plant late this year to be safe. I usually try and plant first weekend of May if possible too. Wasn't able to last year and I'm not doing it this year either. Putting the plants in early just have them sit in raw rainy/cool weather doesn't gain you anything. They respond to the weather and can respond quick once it turns nice. I'll wait until we get closer to the weekend of the 13/14 and see what it looks like at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Some real soakers showing up in the analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 The 12z Euro is coming in more amplified than 00z. Only out to hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 The Euro is much more wound up than 00z. Trying to pop a surface low near Atlanta on Thursday afternoon. Big time severe weather for the deep South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 The block is stronger, the trough is deeper and the storm is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Just a gorgeous setup at H5. Looks like January instead of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Light to moderate rain moving in around Noon on Friday. Could be some showers before that. A good 3-6hrs slower than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Very heavy rain moves in Friday afternoon. Just an absolute firehose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Totals might be knocked down slightly, because the precip shield is much wider, rather than a narrow band of intense rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Things start to wind down Friday night. About 12 hours of heavy rain during the day on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Totals might be knocked down slightly, because the precip shield is much wider, rather than a narrow band of intense rain. Global model won't see the narrow band...have to go to the NAM for that 24 hrs and out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Global model won't see the narrow band...have to go to the NAM for that 24 hrs and out Yeah I wouldn't worry that much about QPF. An absolute beast of a LLJ strengthens overhead, almost perfect placement. It's going to be a firehose of heavy convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Some colder spots away from NYC can see one last chance for 30's this spring early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Euro cut back for the entire area, but is still over 2 inches for the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Euro cut back for the entire area, but is still over 2 inches for the metro. It's depiction of the convection was just a bit less robust, but it's really impossible to figure out at this range. I started a storm specific thread since we're three days out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 19Z HRRR has some showers moving through NNJ around 23z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 76 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Nice day out there today, current temp 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 2, 2017 Author Share Posted May 2, 2017 Gusting to 44 mph now at Newark as the low level lapse rates steepen behind the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Gusting to 44 mph now at Newark as the low level lapse rates steepen behind the cold front. And gusting to 43 mph on the next hour's update. Dew point down to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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