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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Even better, as long as the blocking lasts through most of the winter.

Well with blocking that strong, congrats DC. I was thinking that if we had an active year with East coast recurves things could get interesting.

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12 hours ago, uncle W said:

the pna sky rockets too...we could have used this a few months ago...

We are probably looking at the biggest October and May AO/NAO drop with a big positive in the middle from mid-November through March. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

After the heavier rain potential on Friday, the EPS is just scattered light showers from time to time as the UL lingers over New England. Friday may be our last widespread soaking rain for a while. Most of the rest of the shower threats are T to .10. It's just that we may rack up a number of days where some small amount of rainfall falls as the UL hangs around. 

Don't know why you put so much faith in the EPS. It hasn't exactly been stellar recently.

We really need that second coastal to pinwhell back towards the coast like the globals were showing yesterday. 

FWIW the 06z GEFS mean is showing above average rainfall through day 10.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

After the heavier rain potential on Friday, the EPS is just scattered light showers from time to time as the UL lingers over New England. Friday may be our last widespread soaking rain for a while. Most of the rest of the shower threats are T to .10. It's just that we may rack up a number of days where some small amount of rainfall falls as the UL hangs around. 

Yeah, we've seen that set up many times before, just days and days of clouds and not much to show for it in the bucket.

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Just now, bluewave said:

The EPS and Euro have been beating the GFS on a regular basis. Remember the big rainfall totals the GFS was showing a while back that got smaller the closer that the storms got. The GFS also did very poorly last week going to light on the heavier rains that we got. So I don't trust the GFS with rainfall details. 

So you're telling me that the ECWMF op is significantly drier than the GFS?

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Most of the rain on the EPS/Euro falls on Friday with lighter amounts in the days following as the UL lingers.

 

KNYC_2017050200_eps_precip_240.thumb.png.e1a546db1e8d77a2cf519bfc69ee852b.png

 

 

 

So the OP is around 3" of rain through day 5, while the GFS is about half that.

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That has been the pattern all spring here. Several well defined 1-2 locally 2+ events followed by numerous drizzle or light shower days as the fronts stalled nearby.

Odd Month-lots of clouds, but BDR was warmest ever.   High overnight lows did the trick, but it was a break from the usual torch spring months which tend to feature alot of sun and dry conditions/west winds.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The point is that most of the OP/EPS rain is Friday with lighter showers after as the UL hangs around. Maybe after day 10 one of those pinwheeling lows gets closer for something more significant again. But many times New England is favored when the UL is over the Northeast. We'll see how things go when we get further out in time.

This doesn't look like your typical setup by any means. And I'm glad that the Euro is significantly wetter than the GFS. I'd be fine with only some follow up showers if we received 3"+ in short order.

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This doesn't look like your typical setup by any means. And I'm glad that the Euro is significantly wetter than the GFS. I'd be fine with only some follow up showers if we received 3"+ in short order.

Euro does drop up to 3 inches in a couple of places...looks a bit slower with the big rains Friday PM into Friay night.  After than, there's .25 to .50 for the next 7 days, so Friday's the big day.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Euro does drop up to 3 inches in a couple of places...looks a bit slower with the big rains Friday PM into Friay night.  After than, there's .25 to .50 for the next 7 days, so Friday's the big day.

Too early for the fine details, but it's nice to see the Euro that wet since the GFS has scaled back the last two runs.

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6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Too early for the fine details, but it's nice to see the Euro that wet since the GFS has scaled back the last two runs.

The Euro 0z was wetter than yesterday's 12z Euro for sure.   We'll see what today's 12z says

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Do you guys think we could see a rare May frost early next week? I always plant the tomatoes during the first few days of May, but I'm a little hesitant to do that right now because of how chilly it looks early next week. Right now to me it looks as if it could drop to about 40 monday night which would be ok, but it would only have to trend a little colder to get to frost level. I'm wondering if I should plant late this year to be safe. 

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6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Do you guys think we could see a rare May frost early next week? I always plant the tomatoes during the first few days of May, but I'm a little hesitant to do that right now because of how chilly it looks early next week. Right now to me it looks as if it could drop to about 40 monday night which would be ok, but it would only have to trend a little colder to get to frost level. I'm wondering if I should plant late this year to be safe. 

I doubt it will all the cloud cover.  Would have to really clear out one night and radiate well.

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8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This looks like the same storm that we have been seeing since the wetter period began back in March. Widespread 1-2 inch amounts with pockets over two where the best convection sets up. This was a very gradual drought ending rather than the big 10-20 inch rainfall in a month that we have seen on numerous occasions during the 2000's.

very good point.   This summer/fall will be telling.  That's where we've been bone dry the last 3-4 years....especially the falls.  I have never seen 3-4 falls in a row with such dry conditions.

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25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS continues to get drier for Friday

down to about an inch or so....in and out.

-

gfs_apcpn_neus_15.png

Not exactly in and out. The storm hangs around and will affect our weather for a week plus. It's also the driest model, with a dry bias.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

Not exactly in and out. The storm hangs around and will affect our weather for a week plus. It's also the driest model, with a dry bias.

The big rains are in and out...if you count the clouds and light showers after, then yes I agree.   Today's Euro will be telling-will confirm if last night's 0z was a wet fluke.

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