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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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21 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It's really clearing down in VA.  There may be widespread convective development there moving north but I don't think it really holds together into here overnight.  Probably mostly rain 

Well it's associated with a surface low that's rapidly developing so there will be some enhanced lift to the North and East of the center. It's really a matter of how far West the low tracks. It's kind of the opposite of Winter where you want to be NW of the low. It just doesn't develop a good NW shield until it's into Central New England tomorrow morning.

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12z GGEM shows rain saturday afternoon. Even GFS now shows some scattered showers for saturday. I mentioned this yesterday. Why are all forecasts saying saturday is the one beautiful day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain at all? Seems as if they're ignoring guidance that's showing rain for saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if sunday ends up better than saturday. What do you guys think?

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

12z GGEM shows rain saturday afternoon. Even GFS now shows some scattered showers for saturday. I mentioned this yesterday. Why are all forecasts saying saturday is the one beautiful day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain at all? Seems as if they're ignoring guidance that's showing rain for saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if sunday ends up better than saturday. What do you guys think?

First of all the guidance is really moving around from run to run, so it's a low confidence forecast. Last night the models shifted South for Saturday but now they are creeping North. It still should be a mostly nice day, and I say that because if there is some activity, it should be scattered or isolated enough to keep it low impact.

In fact all weekend it looks like a general nuisance rain, not widespread. Difficult forecast. 

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

First of all the guidance is really moving around from run to run, so it's a low confidence forecast. Last night the models shifted South for Saturday but now they are creeping North. It still should be a mostly nice day, and I say that because if there is some activity, it should be scattered or isolated enough to keep it low impact.

In fact all weekend it looks like a general nuisance rain, not widespread. Difficult forecast. 

I definitely agree that it's a low confidence forecast. That's sort of my point. All forecasts have been acting as if saturday is a slam dunk beautiful day. I think it's questionable just like the rest of the weekend. GGEM has been extremely consistent in bringing the batch of rain acoss PA and then into our area saturday afternoon. It's not out of the question that it could be right. It could go to the south, but I don't want people to be shocked if saturday afternoon plans end up being ruined.

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3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I definitely agree that it's a low confidence forecast. That's sort of my point. All forecasts have been acting as if saturday is a slam dunk beautiful day. I think it's questionable just like the rest of the weekend. GGEM has been extremely consistent in bringing the batch of rain acoss PA and then into our area saturday afternoon. It's not out of the question that it could be right. It could go to the south, but I don't want people to be shocked if saturday afternoon plans end up being ruined.

Well all I will say again is that it's a convective complex coming out of the Ohio Valley and they usually track NW to SE, so normally we need them to come out of Ontario to have a real shot here.

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2 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

Besides the transient warmth last week, this May is very 2003/2009 ish.

Iirc, 2003 pattern broke at the end of June while 2009 did not break until mid July. 

The April warmth was the most extreme relative to March and May that you will probably see around here.

Newark spring departures....Mar...-2.3.....Apr....+4.4.....May so far....-0.8.

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4 minutes ago, Fantom X said:

Besides the transient warmth last week, this May is very 2003/2009 ish.

Iirc, 2003 pattern broke at the end of June while 2009 did not break until mid July. 

Last week of June 2003 was hot--you are right there.  2009 morphed into a cool, but dry July.   We had some heat and humdity for a couple of weeks in August but that was about it.

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Last week of June 2003 was hot--you are right there.  2009 morphed into a cool, but dry July.   We had some heat and humdity for a couple of weeks in August but that was about it.

Of course the day of the blackout had to be the warmest damn day of the summer 

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Warm fronts with this much instability aloft tonight have generally been overperformers here for heavy convection. Why can't we get midlevel lapse rates this steep round here during the summer...;)  

 

5927187adfb20_2017052512_GFS_015_40.8-73.5_severe_ml.thumb.png.7a9b7c1e2ba99f5e9d4c0ce3336e88ba.png

 

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5 minutes ago, ag3 said:

HRRR and 12z Rgem both have the heavy rain bullseye over Nassau County, LI tonight. I would look in that area for storminess or heavy convective rains.

 

The 12z Euro says the area to watch is West of the Hudson river. I think that Long Island might get too close to the subsidence associated with the developing surface low as most guidance tracks the low over Long Island while areas to the West and North keep wrap around rains till the morning.

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21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z Euro says the area to watch is West of the Hudson river. I think that Long Island might get too close to the subsidence associated with the developing surface low as most guidance tracks the low over Long Island while areas to the West and North keep wrap around rains till the morning.

 

I'll go with a LI bullseye for rainfall. While not a perfect model, I'll go with the short term Rgem over anything else.

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3 minutes ago, ag3 said:

 

I'll go with a LI bullseye for rainfall. While not a perfect model, I'll go with the short term Rgem over anything else.

You're literally arguing over nothing. The RGEM dumps just as much rain over Western areas as it does LI. And as I said before, it's hard to get prolonged rain where the Surface low tracks because of subsidence. 

rgem_apcpn_neus_8.png

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41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Of course the day of the blackout had to be the warmest damn day of the summer 

actually for august it was in the upper 80's the day of the blackout but it was not super humid.. was a clear day i remember.. of course with no a.c or fans it was very uncomfortable that night...

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