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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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This current batch of rain looks to clear the area between 1 and 2pm.

The latest run of the HRRR wants to develop somewhat persistent showers thereafter, especially from the city and North. 

The convection for tonight should hold off until at least 9-10pm.

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53 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

0z Euro is much drier overall for this weekend...when compared to yesterday's 12z run.

Intervals of clouds and sun with a SE to E flow sand some scattered showers. Or much like every weekend going back to mid- April.

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1 minute ago, JerseyWx said:

What do you think about tomorrow afternoon and evening in terms of rain?

I think tomorrow afternoon looks good for the most part. I'd go with about a 20% chance of showers, but you won't see any widespread rain.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I think tomorrow afternoon looks good for the most part. I'd go with about a 20% chance of showers, but you won't see any widespread rain.

Thanks.  I haven't seen any model runs, but Mount Holly agrees and only mentions a small chance for scattered showers.

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Lighter beach traffic than usual heading to the shores for Memorial Day weekend with the cooler onshore flow near the coast.

The beaches should be stuck in the 60's on Saturday and possibly the 50's on Sunday.

namconus_T2m_neus_44.png

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19 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Thanks.  I haven't seen any model runs, but Mount Holly agrees and only mentions a small chance for scattered showers.

There could be some leftover rain in the morning but things should clear out eventually. The afternoon looks good like I said. There could be some activity on Saturday night, Sunday and Monday depending on which guidance you prefer. 

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9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There could be some leftover rain in the morning but things should clear out eventually. The afternoon looks good like I said. There could be some activity on Saturday night, Sunday and Monday depending on which guidance you prefer. 

Yeah, the morning I don't mind, so long as the afternoon and into the evening is fairly nice.  The weekend seems to be a toss-up like you said.  It is getting windy here as well.

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The beaches should be stuck in the 60's on Saturday and possibly the 50's on Sunday.

 

Very unusual temperature pattern this spring. Cold March...record warm April...transient record warmth around mid-May...cooler pattern heading into Memorial Day weekend like start of month. Not very many examples of a spring like this in the past. These extremes keep rewriting the climo playbook around here.

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