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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Because that's what happened here. The rain was done by 8AM and they still canceled. They makes those decisions hours before the event is set to start because the planning takes hours.

Silly.     Guessing they'll go the other way this year given the bogus cancellations of last year.   May not matter anyway as modeling is trender drier for the weekend thankfully.

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Silly.     Guessing they'll go the other way this year given the bogus cancellations of last year. 

People were pissed, as was I, but they decision to cancel was done early in the morning. 

And we were told that even a 20% chance of rain was too big of a risk.

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Just now, NJwx85 said:

People were pissed, as was I, but they decision to cancel was done early in the morning. 

And we were told that even a 20% chance of rain was too big of a risk.

People are such snowflakes these days-what's going to happen, people are going to melt???

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This is going to be the coolest maximum temperatures of the 2010's so far for the last week of May. We wont even come close to the max range at Newark of 88-96.

Newark Max temps 5/25-5/31...2010...95...2011...92...2012...92...2013...94...2014...88..2015...91...2016...96.

  Newark, NJ
   RAIN     SHWRS    PTCLDY   MOCLDY   MOCLDY   PTCLDY   PTCLDY
   53/63    55/76    57/75    60/73    60/77    62/78    61/76
    90/90    70/50    30/10    10/30    50/40    30/10    20/20
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On 5/20/2017 at 5:14 PM, BombsAway1288 said:

CPK is Chesapeake, VA. NOT Central Park. How many times do we need to go over this?

LGA is kind of a joke at this point. It's definitely running high. I believe the ASOS is located between runways near the water so in terms of overnight lows, I can't take it seriously.  Just look at the departures for the month updated through yesterday. LGA is now running nearly 3 degrees higher than everywhere else!

Here in SW Nassau we were warmer than JFK on Thursday, I just touched 90 that day, and on Friday we hit 91.

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On 5/18/2017 at 9:22 AM, bluewave said:

 

Storm details aside beyond 5 days, the current record warmth this week looks like it will be the warmest we see for a while.

I figured.  We were 90 and 91 on Thursday and Friday, and April 2002 notwithstanding, an early season heat wave is a signal for a cooler summer.  1996 and 2001 both had May heat and (especially 1996) didn't hit 90 again for the rest of the year except for barely touching 90 one day in August.  We had a lot of 80s with high humidity and cloudy skies though.

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32 minutes ago, Paragon said:

I figured.  We were 90 and 91 on Thursday and Friday, and April 2002 notwithstanding, an early season heat wave is a signal for a cooler summer.  1996 and 2001 both had May heat and (especially 1996) didn't hit 90 again for the rest of the year except for barely touching 90 one day in August.  We had a lot of 80s with high humidity and cloudy skies though.

With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two.

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I keep hearing that saturday is the one day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain, but I see NAM brings in rain late in the day saturday. GGEM shows similar. Any chance these 2 models are right and saturday ends up with rain? Lee Goldberg seems confident that saturday will be dry.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two.

I'm thinking the latter.  Remember 2011 when we had extreme heat in July and then extreme rainfall in August?  Maybe it won't be that extreme though.

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I'm thinking a plus neutral summer with the JJA oni ranging from +0.2 to +0.4...Summers with a oni in that range are...

1966...0.2

1969...0.4

1977...0.4

1980...0.3

1983...0.3

1986...0.2

1990...0.3

1993...0.3

1986 and 1990 were the only Summers that were not hot...1966, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1993 were very hot Summers...

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two.

Might be a year where we get the highest departures in Aug/Sept when the SST are highest and with the +AMO adding a few degrees, we could bake late like last year.  (Soil conditions comes into play too as another wild card.)

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40 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So are you saying that once this first batch moves thru more rain is going to develop?

modeling shows alot of that missing to the north and east.   Heaviest rains will be this morning and maybe into the early PM.

RGEM shows the jump zone

rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

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39 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

So are you saying that once this first batch moves thru more rain is going to develop?

The rain is associated with a developing surface low pressure. We're in a bit of a bad spot because it's forecasted to develop overhead, therefore the area could get into a prolonged period of subsidence. There should be scattered showers and a few storms through early afternoon and then a break until tonight.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18.png

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6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

modeling shows alot of that missing to the north and east.   Heaviest rains will be this morning and maybe into the early PM.

RGEM shows the jump zone

rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

The RGEM is already wrong because that area of heavy convection off the Delmarva is already gone.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_3.png

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24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The rain is associated with a developing surface low pressure. We're in a bit of a bad spot because it's forecasted to develop overhead, therefore the area could get into a prolonged period of subsidence. There should be scattered showers and a few storms through early afternoon and then a break until tonight.

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_18.png

Well that is certainly good news for me since I asked because I have a softball game at 6:30pm... I am starting to think that we can get this game in!! Anybody agree?? :):) 

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Just now, allgame830 said:

Well that is certainly good news for me since I asked because I have a softball game at 6:30pm... I am starting to think that we can get this game in!! Anybody agree?? :):) 

It's hard to say.

The Yankees already rained the game out for this afternoon.

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13 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Honestly that's is a bad decision on their behalf... don't see a reason why they should be cancelled it.

I wouldn't call it a bad decision. I think they had a window with a possible delayed start. And they are going to Cleveland after the game so it's not like it's a long flight.

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