Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Because that's what happened here. The rain was done by 8AM and they still canceled. They makes those decisions hours before the event is set to start because the planning takes hours. Silly. Guessing they'll go the other way this year given the bogus cancellations of last year. May not matter anyway as modeling is trender drier for the weekend thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Silly. Guessing they'll go the other way this year given the bogus cancellations of last year. People were pissed, as was I, but they decision to cancel was done early in the morning. And we were told that even a 20% chance of rain was too big of a risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: People were pissed, as was I, but they decision to cancel was done early in the morning. And we were told that even a 20% chance of rain was too big of a risk. People are such snowflakes these days-what's going to happen, people are going to melt??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 50 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: People are such snowflakes these days-what's going to happen, people are going to melt??? The Euro is very problematic for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is very problematic for Monday. slower than GFS-keeps rain around to mid-day. Sharp cutoff south of NYC-alot of Jersey barely gets .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: slower than GFS-keeps rain around to mid-day. Sharp cutoff south of NYC-alot of Jersey barely gets .25 It's convective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2017 Author Share Posted May 24, 2017 This is going to be the coolest maximum temperatures of the 2010's so far for the last week of May. We wont even come close to the max range at Newark of 88-96. Newark Max temps 5/25-5/31...2010...95...2011...92...2012...92...2013...94...2014...88..2015...91...2016...96. Newark, NJ RAIN SHWRS PTCLDY MOCLDY MOCLDY PTCLDY PTCLDY 53/63 55/76 57/75 60/73 60/77 62/78 61/76 90/90 70/50 30/10 10/30 50/40 30/10 20/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 The jet max crosses the area between 6-10AM tomorrow morning, so there could be some widespread enhanced rainfall during those hours. That's inline with the latest HRRR and the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 On 5/19/2017 at 10:06 PM, BombsAway1288 said: Time to open the windows finally except for allergens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 On 5/20/2017 at 5:14 PM, BombsAway1288 said: CPK is Chesapeake, VA. NOT Central Park. How many times do we need to go over this? LGA is kind of a joke at this point. It's definitely running high. I believe the ASOS is located between runways near the water so in terms of overnight lows, I can't take it seriously. Just look at the departures for the month updated through yesterday. LGA is now running nearly 3 degrees higher than everywhere else! Here in SW Nassau we were warmer than JFK on Thursday, I just touched 90 that day, and on Friday we hit 91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 On 5/18/2017 at 9:22 AM, bluewave said: Storm details aside beyond 5 days, the current record warmth this week looks like it will be the warmest we see for a while. I figured. We were 90 and 91 on Thursday and Friday, and April 2002 notwithstanding, an early season heat wave is a signal for a cooler summer. 1996 and 2001 both had May heat and (especially 1996) didn't hit 90 again for the rest of the year except for barely touching 90 one day in August. We had a lot of 80s with high humidity and cloudy skies though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2017 Author Share Posted May 24, 2017 32 minutes ago, Paragon said: I figured. We were 90 and 91 on Thursday and Friday, and April 2002 notwithstanding, an early season heat wave is a signal for a cooler summer. 1996 and 2001 both had May heat and (especially 1996) didn't hit 90 again for the rest of the year except for barely touching 90 one day in August. We had a lot of 80s with high humidity and cloudy skies though. With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 I keep hearing that saturday is the one day of the holiday weekend with no chance of rain, but I see NAM brings in rain late in the day saturday. GGEM shows similar. Any chance these 2 models are right and saturday ends up with rain? Lee Goldberg seems confident that saturday will be dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two. I'm thinking the latter. Remember 2011 when we had extreme heat in July and then extreme rainfall in August? Maybe it won't be that extreme though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 I'm thinking a plus neutral summer with the JJA oni ranging from +0.2 to +0.4...Summers with a oni in that range are... 1966...0.2 1969...0.4 1977...0.4 1980...0.3 1983...0.3 1986...0.2 1990...0.3 1993...0.3 1986 and 1990 were the only Summers that were not hot...1966, 1977, 1980, 1983, 1993 were very hot Summers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 24, 2017 Share Posted May 24, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two. Might be a year where we get the highest departures in Aug/Sept when the SST are highest and with the +AMO adding a few degrees, we could bake late like last year. (Soil conditions comes into play too as another wild card.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Is it just me or does the radar not look overly impressive yet again??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Is it just me or does the radar not look overly impressive yet again??? It's a miller b type storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: It's a miller b type storm So are you saying that once this first batch moves thru more rain is going to develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 40 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So are you saying that once this first batch moves thru more rain is going to develop? modeling shows alot of that missing to the north and east. Heaviest rains will be this morning and maybe into the early PM. RGEM shows the jump zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 39 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So are you saying that once this first batch moves thru more rain is going to develop? The rain is associated with a developing surface low pressure. We're in a bit of a bad spot because it's forecasted to develop overhead, therefore the area could get into a prolonged period of subsidence. There should be scattered showers and a few storms through early afternoon and then a break until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: modeling shows alot of that missing to the north and east. Heaviest rains will be this morning and maybe into the early PM. RGEM shows the jump zone The RGEM is already wrong because that area of heavy convection off the Delmarva is already gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 0.08" in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Morris said: 0.08" in the park. We're going to need some convection to develop if someone is going to get some higher amounts. If the city only received about a half inch today that would be spot on with the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The rain is associated with a developing surface low pressure. We're in a bit of a bad spot because it's forecasted to develop overhead, therefore the area could get into a prolonged period of subsidence. There should be scattered showers and a few storms through early afternoon and then a break until tonight. Well that is certainly good news for me since I asked because I have a softball game at 6:30pm... I am starting to think that we can get this game in!! Anybody agree?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Just now, allgame830 said: Well that is certainly good news for me since I asked because I have a softball game at 6:30pm... I am starting to think that we can get this game in!! Anybody agree?? It's hard to say. The Yankees already rained the game out for this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's hard to say. The Yankees already rained the game out for this afternoon. Honestly that's is a bad decision on their behalf... don't see a reason why they should be cancelled it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Honestly that's is a bad decision on their behalf... don't see a reason why they should be cancelled it. I wouldn't call it a bad decision. I think they had a window with a possible delayed start. And they are going to Cleveland after the game so it's not like it's a long flight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 Wet spring pattern continues with NYC nearly at the top 20th wettest spring with the rain today. This will be the wettest spring since 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Radar echoes not particularly crazy but it's pouring sheets of wind-driven heavy rain in New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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