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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM has the same solution, hard to bet against that.  Could we get a few hundreths of an inch?  Sure, but this one is toast as far as anything more than knocking the dust down.

Okay there is a big difference between a completely dry forecast and some rain. Just like Saturday morning when we had about a 10% chance of rain, yet it was rainy and gloomy most of the day.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM has the same solution, hard to bet against that.  Could we get a few hundreths of an inch?  Sure, but this one is toast as far as anything more than knocking the dust down.

The Euro has some decent elevated convection with the warm front Thursday morning over LI and CT. We'll see if that shifts around in future runs.

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2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay there is a big difference between a completely dry forecast and some rain. Just like Saturday morning when we had about a 10% chance of rain, yet it was rainy and gloomy most of the day.

This is at 3am so no one's really going to notice...

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1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yep we'd hear the usual "it's further north"!  The QORPFPT Model shows 1-3 for NYC! LC says big hit!  LOL

I get starting a thread for snow when a few inches are possible, but we've literally had threads started where the expected amount is a coating at best.

It looks like we're mainly too far South and West and for something significant on Thursday. The surface low develops near the benchmark and pulls the heavy rains into New England.

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I get starting a thread for snow when a few inches are possible, but we've literally had threads started where the expected amount is a coating at best.

It looks like we're mainly too far South and West and for something significant on Thursday. The surface low develops near the benchmark and pulls the heavy rains into New England.

Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week

This whole week is basically nuisance rain.  Yesterday was 55° and damp the entire day, with only .30" to show for it.  Hopefully Thursday has a little more precip if it's going to rain anyway.

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week

See the wet appeal is enough for me.

It doesn't need to be several inches of rain to be a wet stretch.

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44 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Maybe, it's associated with a strong mid-level shortwave that's actually closed off at 500mb.

And it has decent jet support.

about 3 or 4 years ago there was a strong unforecasted MCS that rolled through here early memorial day.   1-2 inches of rain, was out by 10am and the sun was out...pretty wild. Some of these MCS's are poorly modeled.

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19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM's drier than my mother in law's chicken through tomorrow night.

It doesn't have any of the rain that's currently falling near Richmond and points Southwest and I have no idea where it's getting that convective blob for tonight. All of the strong thunderstorms are way South of there.

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