Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM has the same solution, hard to bet against that.  Could we get a few hundreths of an inch?  Sure, but this one is toast as far as anything more than knocking the dust down.

Okay there is a big difference between a completely dry forecast and some rain. Just like Saturday morning when we had about a 10% chance of rain, yet it was rainy and gloomy most of the day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM has the same solution, hard to bet against that.  Could we get a few hundreths of an inch?  Sure, but this one is toast as far as anything more than knocking the dust down.

The Euro has some decent elevated convection with the warm front Thursday morning over LI and CT. We'll see if that shifts around in future runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Okay there is a big difference between a completely dry forecast and some rain. Just like Saturday morning when we had about a 10% chance of rain, yet it was rainy and gloomy most of the day.

This is at 3am so no one's really going to notice...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

yep we'd hear the usual "it's further north"!  The QORPFPT Model shows 1-3 for NYC! LC says big hit!  LOL

I get starting a thread for snow when a few inches are possible, but we've literally had threads started where the expected amount is a coating at best.

It looks like we're mainly too far South and West and for something significant on Thursday. The surface low develops near the benchmark and pulls the heavy rains into New England.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I get starting a thread for snow when a few inches are possible, but we've literally had threads started where the expected amount is a coating at best.

It looks like we're mainly too far South and West and for something significant on Thursday. The surface low develops near the benchmark and pulls the heavy rains into New England.

Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week

This whole week is basically nuisance rain.  Yesterday was 55° and damp the entire day, with only .30" to show for it.  Hopefully Thursday has a little more precip if it's going to rain anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week

See the wet appeal is enough for me.

It doesn't need to be several inches of rain to be a wet stretch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Maybe, it's associated with a strong mid-level shortwave that's actually closed off at 500mb.

And it has decent jet support.

about 3 or 4 years ago there was a strong unforecasted MCS that rolled through here early memorial day.   1-2 inches of rain, was out by 10am and the sun was out...pretty wild. Some of these MCS's are poorly modeled.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM's drier than my mother in law's chicken through tomorrow night.

It doesn't have any of the rain that's currently falling near Richmond and points Southwest and I have no idea where it's getting that convective blob for tonight. All of the strong thunderstorms are way South of there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...