Stormlover74 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Tomorrow's looking like less than a quarter inch for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 latest forecast i saw will say your wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 7 hours ago, nycwinter said: latest forecast i saw will say your wrong... Nope, looks all offshore at this point. Today's forecast looks to bust hard. Latest RGEM shows the miss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 this could be the third day in a row that the forecast busts one day in advance...Saturday we had showers when it was forecast partly sunny, Sunday was sunny and glorious when it forecast to be variably cloudy and now many may escape rain when it was billed as a heavy rain washout widespread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwarlock said: this could be the third day in a row that the forecast busts one day in advance...Saturday we had showers when it was forecast partly sunny, Sunday was sunny and glorious when it forecast to be variably cloudy and now many may escape rain when it was billed as a heavy rain washout widespread It's been pretty clear since Saturday that most of today's rains would miss to the South and East. With that being said, light rain should overspread the entire region before noon and persist for a few hours. It may not be a heavy rain washout, but the sun isn't coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's been pretty clear since Saturday that most of today's rains would miss to the South and East. With that being said, light rain should overspread the entire region before noon and persist for a few hours. It may not be a heavy rain washout, but the sun isn't coming out. Upton had an inch for us as of last night's forecast. We'll be lucky to get .25. Models have been horrid last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Upton had an inch for us as of last night's forecast. We'll be lucky to get .25. Models have been horrid last few days. I have no idea why anyone here even looks at those forecasts when you have the models themselves at your fingertips. The last real wet run for the area was the Euro on Saturday. The GFS and NAM have been dry since Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: I have no idea why anyone here even looks at those forecasts when you have the models themselves at your fingertips. The last real wet run for the area was on Saturday. The GFS and NAM have been dry since Friday afternoon. Yeah, I get it-I noticed they were shifting a bit south and east, however the general public was expecting a wipeout based on TV and radio forecasts and most of the day will be dry especially NYC N and W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Looks like Wednesday is now mostly dry as well on the models. So much for the big rains this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Yeah, I get it-I noticed they were shifting a bit south and east, however the general public was expecting a wipeout based on TV and radio forecasts and most of the day will be dry especially NYC N and W. I noticed last night on the 11pm news that they had the heavy rain way too far NW. Not sure what piece of guidance they were using. In any event, the rain NW of BWI will probably make it up here based on current trajectory. We'll have to see if anything else develops. I wonder if tomorrow's rains end up much further NW than currently forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2017 Author Share Posted May 22, 2017 Even though models have been struggling with the daily details of this pattern, the Euro skill score has been way ahead of the GFS recently. I guess this is what happens when we get one of the biggest NAO drops on record for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Nope, looks all offshore at this point. Today's forecast looks to bust hard. Latest RGEM shows the miss... at the time i made my comment the models were showing a lot of rain for the nyc area.. they backed off.. but then again they were showing nothing for wednesday.. now this morning they are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, nycwinter said: at the time i made my comment the models were showing a lot of rain for the nyc area.. they backed off.. but then again they were showing nothing for wednesday.. now this morning they are... 6z NAM was bone dry for Wednesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 29 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 6z NAM was bone dry for Wednesday.... Might be referring to the 00z GGEM or 00z UKMET which both showed measurable rain NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Might be referring to the 00z GGEM or 00z UKMET which both showed measurable rain NW of NYC. GGEM is worthless. UKMET I'd pay attention to. 12z NAM rolling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: GGEM is worthless. UKMET I'd pay attention to. 12z NAM rolling now. Looks like rain on Thursday is a good bet. It could come in as early as Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Have picked up 0.22" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Today's rains had very little jet support up this way so I'm not surprised that they not only backed off the intensity but also the coverage. Areas further South where some training occurred have picked up more significant amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Today's rains had very little jet support up this way so I'm not surprised that they not only backed off the intensity but also the coverage. Areas further South where some training occurred have picked up more significant amounts. The stuff it PA is falling apart. I'd say we're done for today outside of another .05 or something like that. far eastern LI may get more, but this one is toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 .15" of rain here with light rain falling. That stuff in PA should clip NYC and east later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 0.28" here and 54 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The stuff it PA is falling apart. I'd say we're done for today outside of another .05 or something like that. far eastern LI may get more, but this one is toast. The 12z RGEM still brings 0.25"+ NW of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 So much for not having to water the garden today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 55° and rain on May 22nd. I really can't remember a May with so many 40's and 50's for high temperatures. Not to mention a ton of lows in the 30's. Unlike this past Winter where we got small pockets of cold every so often, and then returned to a warmer pattern, this Spring has been the complete opposite. We get small periods of warmth and then return right back to cooler temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 9 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: 55° and rain on May 22nd. I really can't remember a May with so many 40's and 50's for high temperatures. Not to mention a ton of lows in the 30's. Unlike this past Winter where we got small pockets of cold every so often, and then returned to a warmer pattern, this Spring has been the complete opposite. We get small periods of warmth and then return right back to cooler temps. I have said the same thing yet May as of Saturday was averaging a few tenths of a degree above average at most observation stations. Coldest March in years, warmest April ever, May a mix of both. 57F with a light shower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Most people wont really notice the difference between cloudy and cool in the 50's with .10-.25 of rain vs .50-.75 rain. But they would if it was snow. Yep, I've been saying the same thing for years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Drizzle/light rain here, 54. Miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2017 Author Share Posted May 22, 2017 10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Yep, I've been saying the same thing for years Yeah, the important part of the forecast for the average person is that it's raining and cool today. They really don't pay much attention to the fact that the models backed off the amounts since Friday. But they would let you hear it if it was snow amounts instead of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the important part of the forecast for the average person is that it's raining and cool today. They really don't pay much attention to the fact that the models backed off the amounts since Friday. But they would let you hear it if it was snow amounts instead of rain. I actually heard a woman ask one time how the weatherman screws up so much just in winter...of course this was the same woman who said on the Monday after daylight savings started that all the plants would start growing now that they had an extra hour of sunlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 .21" here now. Similar around NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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