NJwx85 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 GFS has trended away from a big storm the last two runs. 18z is a quick hitting 1-2" and out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 SPC Day 1 Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: SPC Day 1 Outlook http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html Wasn't expecting this. I hope it comes to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The HRRR has a decent line in central PA at hour 18 (11 pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Models continue with near record early May blocking this week with a very strong storm on Friday. These high latitude 400M+ blocks in the past have produced significant storm systems here in the East. The block is so strong that troughing lingers near the NE right into mid-May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 30 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models continue with near record early May blocking this week with a very strong storm on Friday. These high latitude 400M+ blocks in the past have produced major storm systems here in the East. The block is so strong that troughing lingers near the NE right into mid-May. Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Not happy with the recent trends for late in the week. Most of the rain is over in six hours. Late last week it looked like this was going to cutoff in an optimal position, with surface low development offshore. Without the SLP development, we're looking at a strong cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not happy with the recent trends for late in the week. Most of the rain is over in six hours. Late last week it looked like this was going to cutoff in an optimal position, with surface low development offshore. Without the SLP development, we're looking at a strong cold front. This looks like a one day event for Friday with the potential for another widespread 1-2" and locally higher amounts with strong wind gusts over 40 or maybe 50 mph near the coast. The LP cutting to our west on the Euro is one of the deeper ones in recent years for the month of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: This looks like a one day event for Friday with the potential for another widespread 1-2 and locally higher amounts with strong wind gusts over 40 or maybe 50 mph near the coast. Like I said, a giant bucket of meh. The last really good run was the 06z GFS run yesterday, with pockets of 5-7", and an almost 24 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Like I said, a giant bucket of meh. The last really good run was the 06z GFS run yesterday, with pockets of 5-7", and an almost 24 hour event. with a track well west, we won't see the big totals, however 1-2 inches is significant-2 inches is basically half of May's rainfall total in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Like I said, a giant bucket of meh. The last really good run was the 06z GFS run yesterday, with pockets of 5-7", and an almost 24 hour event. I try not to look at the GFS OP runs for storms beyond 72 hrs. This storm on Friday looks like a continuation of the type of storms we have been seeing since the wetter pattern emerged this spring. Sub 990mb storms in May like the Euro is showing are considered strong for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: with a track well west, we won't see the big totals, however 1-2 inches is significant-2 inches is basically half of May's rainfall total in one day. 3"+ or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I try not to look at the GFS OP runs for storms beyond 72 hrs. This storm on Friday looks like a continuation of the type of storms we have been seeing since the wetter pattern emerged this spring. Sub 990mb storms in May like the Euro is showing are considered strong for this time of year. Good point. With a strong block, I'd be surprised to see it cut to our west without any secondary development.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I try not to look at the GFS OP runs for storms beyond 72 hrs. This storm on Friday looks like a continuation of the type of storms we have been seeing since the wetter pattern emerged this spring. Sub 990mb storms in May like the Euro is showing are considered strong for this time of year. Right now it looks like heavy rain moves in around sunrise and it's done by mid-afternoon, probably sooner. Quick hitting convection like we saw last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Good point. With a strong block, I'd be surprised to see it cut to our west without any secondary development.... We needed the ULL to cutoff over the TN Valley instead of the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We needed the ULL to cutoff over the TN Valley instead of the Ohio Valley. The UL on the EPS cuts off over New England for close to a week. So while the heaviest rains should occur on Friday, there could be a streak of days with at least some measurable light rain showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The UL on the EPS cuts off over New England for close to a week. So while the heaviest rains should occur on Friday, there could be a streak of days with at least some measurable light rain showers. It needed to cutoff about 800 miles further Southwest for us to get into the game. The light wrap around showers that accompany a stalled ULL to the North are just awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I put a video up on YouTube from the Thunderstorm on early Saturday morning from my phone. Sorry for the quality but figure some on here would like to see it. Definitely one of the best light shows I have seen in my 48 years. Very vivid as it approached, during and after as it moved east. Grabbed the phone to capture a few minutes of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: The UL on the EPS cuts off over New England for close to a week. So while the heaviest rains should occur on Friday, there could be a streak of days with at least some measurable light rain showers. 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It needed to cutoff about 800 miles further Southwest for us to get into the game. The light wrap around showers that accompany a stalled ULL to the North are just awful. There's one forecast I hope busts...days of clouds and .05 of precip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Today should be the warmest day for a while. Almost like a warmer version of what happened here in February and March. The record February warmth lingered into the first few days of March before the cooler pattern emerged. Now we are seeing the Record April warmth extending into the the start of May before a pattern cooler than the record April warmth emerges in May. I wonder if the warmth today is going to bust...only 50F here in Pelham Gardens with low clouds and drizzle. Forecast high is 72F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: with a track well west, we won't see the big totals, however 1-2 inches is significant-2 inches is basically half of May's rainfall total in one day. is not the gfs the dryest model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 if the clouds clear the Sun will do its dirty work...The first week of May 2016 was cool and damp...the first half of May 2016 was cool and the second half hot...two days reached 90 and four days stayed above 70 at night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like the warm front hangs up around I-78 in NJ today with 80's over Central and Southern NJ. Seems like this season, the models always advanced the front further than it actually did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Doom and gloomers make me laugh in the spring....go outside and enjoy life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 67 now, forecast high is 69, pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Mostly sunny and low 70s now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Blazing sun here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Current temp is 64 here, with full sunshine breaking out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 hazy sun here, rising steadily...62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Up 15 degrees in 2 hours. 70 now here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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