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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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Models continue with near record early May blocking this week with a very strong storm on Friday. These high latitude 400M+ blocks in the past have produced significant storm systems here in the East. The block is so strong that troughing lingers near the NE right into mid-May. 

 

eps_z500a_nh_15.thumb.png.8e1f8599e93102e2664eddb27b515f15.png

eps_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.242ffa6a7998102d89b82ba846eb02fc.png

 

 

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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Models continue with near record early May blocking this week with a very strong storm on Friday. These high latitude 400M+ blocks in the past have produced major storm systems here in the East. The block is so strong that troughing lingers near the NE right into mid-May. 

 

eps_z500a_nh_15.thumb.png.8e1f8599e93102e2664eddb27b515f15.png

eps_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.242ffa6a7998102d89b82ba846eb02fc.png

 

 

Sweet!

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Not happy with the recent trends for late in the week. Most of the rain is over in six hours. Late last week it looked like this was going to cutoff in an optimal position, with surface low development offshore. Without the SLP development, we're looking at a strong cold front.

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30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not happy with the recent trends for late in the week. Most of the rain is over in six hours. Late last week it looked like this was going to cutoff in an optimal position, with surface low development offshore. Without the SLP development, we're looking at a strong cold front.

This looks like a one day event for Friday with the potential for another widespread 1-2" and locally higher amounts with strong wind gusts over 40 or maybe 50 mph near the coast. The LP cutting to our west on the Euro is one of the deeper ones in recent years for the month of May. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

This looks like a one day event for Friday with the potential for another widespread 1-2 and locally higher amounts with strong wind gusts over 40 or maybe 50 mph near the coast. 

Like I said, a giant bucket of meh.

The last really good run was the 06z GFS run yesterday, with pockets of 5-7", and an almost 24 hour event.

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1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

Like I said, a giant bucket of meh.

The last really good run was the 06z GFS run yesterday, with pockets of 5-7", and an almost 24 hour event.

with a track well west, we won't see the big totals, however 1-2 inches is significant-2 inches is basically half of May's rainfall total in one day.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Like I said, a giant bucket of meh.

The last really good run was the 06z GFS run yesterday, with pockets of 5-7", and an almost 24 hour event.

I try not to look at the GFS OP runs for storms beyond 72 hrs. This storm on Friday looks like a continuation of the type of storms we have been seeing since the wetter pattern emerged this spring. Sub 990mb storms in May like the Euro is showing are considered strong for this time of year.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I try not to look at the GFS OP runs for storms beyond 72 hrs. This storm on Friday looks like a continuation of the type of storms we have been seeing since the wetter pattern emerged this spring. Sub 990mb storms in May like the Euro is showing are considered strong for this time of year.

Good point.  With a strong block, I'd be surprised to see it cut to our west without any secondary development....

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I try not to look at the GFS OP runs for storms beyond 72 hrs. This storm on Friday looks like a continuation of the type of storms we have been seeing since the wetter pattern emerged this spring. Sub 990mb storms in May like the Euro is showing are considered strong for this time of year.

Right now it looks like heavy rain moves in around sunrise and it's done by mid-afternoon, probably sooner. Quick hitting convection like we saw last week. 

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33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We needed the ULL to cutoff over the TN Valley instead of the Ohio Valley.

The UL on the EPS cuts off over New England for close to a week. So while the heaviest rains should occur on Friday, there could be a streak of days with at least some measurable light rain showers.

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Just now, bluewave said:

The UL on the EPS cuts off over New England for close to a week. So while the heaviest rains should occur on Friday, there could be a streak of days with at least some measurable light rain showers.

It needed to cutoff about 800 miles further Southwest for us to get into the game. The light wrap around showers that accompany a stalled ULL to the North are just awful.

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I put a video up on YouTube from the Thunderstorm on early Saturday morning from my phone. Sorry for the quality but figure some on here would like to see it.

Definitely one of the best light shows I have seen in my 48 years. Very vivid as it approached, during and after as it moved east.

Grabbed the phone to capture a few minutes of it.

 

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The UL on the EPS cuts off over New England for close to a week. So while the heaviest rains should occur on Friday, there could be a streak of days with at least some measurable light rain showers.

 

15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It needed to cutoff about 800 miles further Southwest for us to get into the game. The light wrap around showers that accompany a stalled ULL to the North are just awful.

There's one forecast I hope busts...days of clouds and .05 of precip....

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Today should be the warmest day for a while. Almost like a warmer version of what happened here in February and March. The record February warmth lingered into the first few days of March before the cooler pattern emerged. Now we are seeing the Record April warmth extending into the the start of May before a pattern cooler than the record April warmth emerges in May. 

I wonder if the warmth today is going to bust...only 50F here in Pelham Gardens with low clouds and drizzle. Forecast high is 72F.

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