nzucker Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 4 hours ago, Morris said: Westhampton had another freeze this morning. When is their record last freeze? I think it's June 21, 1967. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 11, 2017 Author Share Posted May 11, 2017 This very impressive blocking pattern disrupted the 2010's May temperature pattern. Instead of the high for the month coming between 5-26 and 5-31 like all the other years, I think the high for the May will come early just before the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Did the park really drop to the unlikely 46 degrees? Newark actually did. Possible still the same issues at KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 The end of next week looks warm and dry. After that too many mixed signals for something more decisive. All models agree that an East coast ridge does build in next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 3 hours ago, Morris said: Did the park really drop to the unlikely 46 degrees? Newark actually did. Possible still the same issues at KNYC. Last night was pretty chilly in the Bronx. Had to sleep in a sweatshirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Just now, nzucker said: Last night was pretty chilly in the Bronx. Had to sleep in a sweatshirt. 39 here last night, felt cold in the house. We've had an incredible stretch of 30's in the northern burbs for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 This is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 11, 2017 Share Posted May 11, 2017 Thru today temp departure here for May of -2.2 degrees...will add to that next several days before we warm up mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 4 hours ago, doncat said: Thru today temp departure here for May of -2.2 degrees...will add to that next several days before we warm up mid week. -5.8 here. Current mean temperature is 0.2 cooler than April's final mean temperature. Only 2 days above 70 so far this month and 8 nights below 50. Much more akin to mid April weather thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 The latest EPS weeklies continue the theme of bringing in the warmest temperatures for the month of May around the 20th. This would be the earliest since 2004 and also the first time since then that it will be close to a week or more before Memorial Day instead of within a few days of the holiday. So this spring continues to break the mold of what we have seen in recent years. Warmest May temperature and date at Newark....2016...96...5-28...2015...91...5-26...2014...88...5-27..2013...94...5-31...2012...92...5-29...2011...92...5-30...2010...95...5-26...2009...87...5-27...2008...87...5/27...2007...94...5/31...2006....94...5-29...2005...84...5-27..2004....92...5-23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies continue the theme of bringing in the warmest temperatures for the month of May around the 20th. This would be the earliest since 2004 and also the first time since then that it will be close to a week or more before Memorial Day instead of within a few days of the holiday. So this spring continues to break the mold of what we have seen in recent years. Warmest May temperature and date at Newark....2016...96...5-28...2015...91...5-26...2014...88...5-27..2013...94...5-31...2012...92...5-29...2011...92...5-30...2010...95...5-26...2009...87...5-27...2008...87...5/27...2007...94...5/31...2006....94...5-29...2005...84...5-27..2004....92...5-23 Does it still have a wet look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Does it still have a wet look? It never had the very wet look like we have seen over the past week or so with these stronger storms. But it does show cold frontal passages through week three with scattered shower and thunderstorm chances. Just nothing as amped up as the storm last Friday and for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: It never had a wet look like we have seen over the past week or so with these stronger storms. But it does show cold frontal passages through week three with scattered shower and thunderstorm changes. Just nothing as amped up as the storm last Friday and for the weekend. Well that makes sense considering we're getting to the very tail end of cut off season. A very rare baroclinic forced event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 25 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Well that makes sense considering we're getting to the very tail end of cut off season. A very rare baroclinic forced event. Yeah, these 2 storms and cooler pattern were all about the big -NAO drop during the first half of May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: Yeah, these 2 storms and cooler pattern were all about the big -NAO drop during the first half of May. All these big drops since 2013 have been transient. I know it's way out there in fantasy range but hints of a possible late re-curving tropical system in the day 10-14 period. Curious about what the EPS has to say about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I know it's way out there in fantasy range but hints of a possible late re-curving tropical system in the day 10-14 period. Curious about what the EPS has to say about that. Not much. But if the new monthlies are to be believed, a wetter pattern sets up ASO along the East Coast suggesting tropical activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not much. But if the new monthlies are to be believed, a wetter pattern sets up ASO along the East Coast suggesting tropical activity. Any idea if we can expect above average tropical activity in the Eastern Caribbean around the end of June? Have a ten day cruise booked for that time frame. Figured I was early enough in the season to be safe but now I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 45 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Any idea if we can expect above average tropical activity in the Eastern Caribbean around the end of June? Have a ten day cruise booked for that time frame. Figured I was early enough in the season to be safe but now I'm not so sure. Climo is usually pretty quiet in that region for the last 10 days of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Climo is usually pretty quiet in that region for the last 10 days of June. Yes but was just wondering if the EPS is showing above average activity. BTW it's actually more focused on the first ten days of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Next week looks like the complete opposite of the pattern we've been in: Mostly sunny, dry, and plenty of chances for 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Next week looks like the complete opposite of the pattern we've been in: Mostly sunny, dry, and plenty of chances for 80's. I wouldn't call it mostly dry. Pretty good chance of PM thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday and then again late in the weekend with approaching trough and whatever ends up developing down the Caribbean for early the next week. I agree that we probably won't be starring down the barrel of a hurricane but there's a good chance of some tropical moisture being fed into that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 You can see the area of concentrated heavy rainfall West of Puerto Rico and cluster of SLP near the SC coast. A good deal of GEFS members have something significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wouldn't call it mostly dry. Pretty good chance of PM thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday and then again late in the weekend with approaching trough and whatever ends up developing down the Caribbean for early the next week. I agree that we probably won't be starring down the barrel of a hurricane but there's a good chance of some tropical moisture being fed into that trough. Well I don't mean bone dry, there are of course some chances. There aren't any "washout" days like we've seen so often since the end of April though (at least for this week coming up, I'm not referring to next weeks tropical system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Well I don't mean bone dry, there are of course some chances. There aren't any "washout" days like we've seen so often since the end of April though (at least for this week coming up, I'm not referring to next weeks tropical system). I would just be very cautious with the upcoming pattern, that's all. Yes, most of next week looks pleasant and warm. Thereafter the AO and NAO are forecasted to take another dive. Mixed signals but I believe the pattern flips back to active around the 24th. If you wanted to take a cynical approach, the GFS has a massive cutoff low in the East over Memorial Day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wouldn't call it mostly dry. Pretty good chance of PM thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday and then again late in the weekend with approaching trough and whatever ends up developing down the Caribbean for early the next week. I agree that we probably won't be starring down the barrel of a hurricane but there's a good chance of some tropical moisture being fed into that trough. The GFS tends to be overdone in these situations. The Euro is bone dry and Upton has no mention of any precip. in the M-Th period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The GFS tends to be overdone in these situations. The Euro is bone dry and Upton has no mention of any precip. in the M-Th period Well the 00z ECMWF has a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday night with a SLP moving through Quebec and trailing cold front crossing the region. Looks marginally unstable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I would just be very cautious with the upcoming pattern, that's all. Yes, most of next week looks pleasant and warm. Thereafter the AO and NAO are forecasted to take another dive. Mixed signals but I believe the pattern flips back to active around the 24th. If you wanted to take a cynical approach, the GFS has a massive cutoff low in the East over Memorial Day weekend. I agree. Mt. Holly likes the drier Euro, but does mention that storms may pop-up later on in the week with fairly supportive conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I agree. Mt. Holly likes the drier Euro, but does mention that storms may pop-up later on in the week with fairly supportive conditions. The Euro keeps the ridge in place longer so storms form to our West and then get shunted off to the North but the Euro does have some activity making it into the region on Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 12, 2017 Author Share Posted May 12, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: Yes but was just wondering if the EPS is showing above average activity. BTW it's actually more focused on the first ten days of July. The Euro seasonal that I saw is active for August through October close in near the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 12, 2017 Share Posted May 12, 2017 Next 7 days will be about +3, (65 vs. 62). SREF has about 2" total for upcoming system. Stops by 8AM Sunday but some pin-wheeling showers comeback by sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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