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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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25 minutes ago, nzucker said:

I'm surprised to see tonight is supposed to be our coldest night with a low of 44F. Wasn't tomorrow night supposed to be the cold one?

Here is some of the Mt. Holly Discussion from an hour ago.  Tomorrow night looks way better for cold temps and frost in the burbs.  Like they mentioned, clouds may be the only thing in the way.

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Overnight lows tonight will remain well below normal across the area, but no one is expected to approach or reach records at this point. However, temperatures across the Poconos of Carbon and Monroe, Pennsylvania may drop down to around freezing or just below. Therefore we`ve issued a Freeze Warning for those areas overnight and toward daybreak Monday. Other areas across eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey may get low enough where frost would typically form. However, there is currently enough winds overnight through daybreak that would likely prevent frost from forming. But it still will be chilly Monday morning. One place where winds may drop off enough for frost to form is portions of the Pine Barrens in of Burlington and Ocean, New Jersey so we`ve included patchy frost in the forecast but have not issued a frost advisory since winds there may prevent widespread frost formation as well.


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Monday night...this still looks to be the coldest night of the week. We should have light winds and dry air through the night. The only factor which may limit radiational cooling is a scattered to broken mid level cloud deck. However, even with this, we should see the most clearing in the dawn hours, so we could see prime radiational cooling conditions in the climatologically coldest hours. Thus, despite some mid level clouds, have included a mention of patchy frost across the southern Poconos, NW NJ, the Lehigh Valley, and Upper Bucks and Montgomery Counties. In these areas, expect lows between 32 and 36 degrees. If models trend lower with cloud cover, a mention of frost may also need to be added to Berks County PA and the Pine Barrens of NJ. At this time we are not forecasting any record lows (see climate section below).

 

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17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Euro still has the big Noreaster next weekend. Still there on the GFS but a bit more suppressed and strung out.

The blocking could suppress the storm....too far out at this point.  In the meantime, the week looks a lot nicer-partly cloudy most of it, albeit chilly for the time of year.

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20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The blocking could suppress the storm....too far out at this point.  In the meantime, the week looks a lot nicer-partly cloudy most of it, albeit chilly for the time of year.

Big NW shift on the 06z GEFS members.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Self destruct day in progress.

Started off with clear, sunny skies and have switched over to overcast with showers approaching from the NW.

Cold upper levels.   Same here, variably cloudy after a clear start, 52 out

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Classic 2 storm pattern when the NAO falls and then rises. Last Friday was the storm when it first went negative and the coming weekend storm potential is on the rise. I believe the all time daily -NAO record for May was around -2 set in 2006. If I missed another year let me know. Should get close the next few days.

 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.4c6f0a8e9b9ea817082bae03bed0befb.gif

 

 

I did a quick check of daily nao numbers since 1950...5/2/1951 had a -2.290 nao...5/6/1977 had a -2.199 nao...2006 was -2.028...5/13/1993...-1.979...5/31/1975...-1.975...

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Thanks, Uncle. It will be interesting to see if this wet spring pattern carries over into the summer when we can get enhancement from tropical cyclones.

Interstingly with the ElNIno not looking so hot, we may have more tropical action.  AMO is still fairly positive.  We've had a lack of systems coming inland on the east coast and dumping big rains like we've seen in the past....

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Once again the PARA GFS is coming in much wetter than the OP. 

06z PARA GFS has a driving rainstorm with a sub 1000mb low East of NJ retrograding into the coast next weekend as it closes off.

The regular GFS has a sub 990 mb low with very strong surface winds offshore. Some EPS and GEFS members also have a strong storm closer to us, it could end up being almost a winter-like Nor'easter if it all comes up together for us. 

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Once again the PARA GFS is coming in much wetter than the OP. 

06z PARA GFS has a driving rainstorm with a sub 1000mb low East of NJ retrograding into the coast next weekend as it closes off.

What's the timing on this storm looking like?

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Thanks, Uncle. It will be interesting to see if this wet spring pattern carries over into the summer when we can get enhancement from tropical cyclones.

1951 hit 90 on 5/16 and 1977 hit 90 on 5/17...since the 1970's NYC Springs are averaging slightly over 13"...1870-1969 averaged close to 10.5"...so far 2017 has 12.30" since March 1st...

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Euro not giving up on the big rains for Saturday PM.  GFS and CMC have an OTS solution with the coastal and an upper low that comes in for Mother's day instead.

Euro does have a more S and E trend on the coastal, the big precip totals are cut off further north---0z had  1 inch rains up to MA/VT border, now it's more like the I84 in CT so we could be seeing a trender to the GFS/CMC solutions....

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