qg_omega Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 Freezing today with passing showers, feels like October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 25 minutes ago, nzucker said: I'm surprised to see tonight is supposed to be our coldest night with a low of 44F. Wasn't tomorrow night supposed to be the cold one? Here is some of the Mt. Holly Discussion from an hour ago. Tomorrow night looks way better for cold temps and frost in the burbs. Like they mentioned, clouds may be the only thing in the way. Quote Overnight lows tonight will remain well below normal across the area, but no one is expected to approach or reach records at this point. However, temperatures across the Poconos of Carbon and Monroe, Pennsylvania may drop down to around freezing or just below. Therefore we`ve issued a Freeze Warning for those areas overnight and toward daybreak Monday. Other areas across eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey may get low enough where frost would typically form. However, there is currently enough winds overnight through daybreak that would likely prevent frost from forming. But it still will be chilly Monday morning. One place where winds may drop off enough for frost to form is portions of the Pine Barrens in of Burlington and Ocean, New Jersey so we`ve included patchy frost in the forecast but have not issued a frost advisory since winds there may prevent widespread frost formation as well. Quote Monday night...this still looks to be the coldest night of the week. We should have light winds and dry air through the night. The only factor which may limit radiational cooling is a scattered to broken mid level cloud deck. However, even with this, we should see the most clearing in the dawn hours, so we could see prime radiational cooling conditions in the climatologically coldest hours. Thus, despite some mid level clouds, have included a mention of patchy frost across the southern Poconos, NW NJ, the Lehigh Valley, and Upper Bucks and Montgomery Counties. In these areas, expect lows between 32 and 36 degrees. If models trend lower with cloud cover, a mention of frost may also need to be added to Berks County PA and the Pine Barrens of NJ. At this time we are not forecasting any record lows (see climate section below). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 Park is down to 49 now, lower than the morning minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 7, 2017 Author Share Posted May 7, 2017 -12 high today at NYC. Like a warmer version of mid-March where the low maxes were more impressive than the minimums. MAXIMUM 56 120 PM 93 2000 68 -12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 18Z GFS has another areawide washout with next weekend's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 26 minutes ago, mob1 said: 18Z GFS has another areawide washout with next weekend's system. Not unlike the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 Another heavy rain event is starting to look likely for next weekend, flooding could be even more problematic especially with the recent heavy rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 7, 2017 Share Posted May 7, 2017 It will be a deluge because I'll be overseas. I also missed the early June deluge 2 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 44° here currently. Pretty cloudy, so it's hard to tell how much more it can drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Never got out of the 40's yesterday. High temp was 49; currently 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Low of 44 in the park, 43 in Newark. 29 in Westhampton. What is their average last freeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 The Euro still has the big Noreaster next weekend. Still there on the GFS but a bit more suppressed and strung out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro still has the big Noreaster next weekend. Still there on the GFS but a bit more suppressed and strung out. The blocking could suppress the storm....too far out at this point. In the meantime, the week looks a lot nicer-partly cloudy most of it, albeit chilly for the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The blocking could suppress the storm....too far out at this point. In the meantime, the week looks a lot nicer-partly cloudy most of it, albeit chilly for the time of year. Big NW shift on the 06z GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Self destruct day in progress. Started off with clear, sunny skies and have switched over to overcast with showers approaching from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Self destruct day in progress. Started off with clear, sunny skies and have switched over to overcast with showers approaching from the NW. Cold upper levels. Same here, variably cloudy after a clear start, 52 out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Cleared up a bit last night, but the clouds still got in the way. 39° for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: Classic 2 storm pattern when the NAO falls and then rises. Last Friday was the storm when it first went negative and the coming weekend storm potential is on the rise. I believe the all time daily -NAO record for May was around -2 set in 2006. If I missed another year let me know. Should get close the next few days. I did a quick check of daily nao numbers since 1950...5/2/1951 had a -2.290 nao...5/6/1977 had a -2.199 nao...2006 was -2.028...5/13/1993...-1.979...5/31/1975...-1.975... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Thanks, Uncle. It will be interesting to see if this wet spring pattern carries over into the summer when we can get enhancement from tropical cyclones. Interstingly with the ElNIno not looking so hot, we may have more tropical action. AMO is still fairly positive. We've had a lack of systems coming inland on the east coast and dumping big rains like we've seen in the past.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 41.5 this morning, terrible. May 2015 also featured some cold mornings, got down to 40* on May 2, 2015. So while this is cold, its not all that unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Once again the PARA GFS is coming in much wetter than the OP. 06z PARA GFS has a driving rainstorm with a sub 1000mb low East of NJ retrograding into the coast next weekend as it closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Once again the PARA GFS is coming in much wetter than the OP. 06z PARA GFS has a driving rainstorm with a sub 1000mb low East of NJ retrograding into the coast next weekend as it closes off. The regular GFS has a sub 990 mb low with very strong surface winds offshore. Some EPS and GEFS members also have a strong storm closer to us, it could end up being almost a winter-like Nor'easter if it all comes up together for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 34° for a low this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 36.9F low. Patchy frost possible the next two mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: Once again the PARA GFS is coming in much wetter than the OP. 06z PARA GFS has a driving rainstorm with a sub 1000mb low East of NJ retrograding into the coast next weekend as it closes off. What's the timing on this storm looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 36 minutes ago, sn0w said: What's the timing on this storm looking like? Saturday but far from a certainty at this point. The gfs and cmc aren't on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 So much for the late month warm up, 12z GFS reloads a deep trough in the East around the 23rd after a 2 day warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Saturday but far from a certainty at this point. The gfs and cmc aren't on board The 12z GEFS mean has over an inch of rain for the area. Most members are a lot closer to the coast than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Thanks, Uncle. It will be interesting to see if this wet spring pattern carries over into the summer when we can get enhancement from tropical cyclones. 1951 hit 90 on 5/16 and 1977 hit 90 on 5/17...since the 1970's NYC Springs are averaging slightly over 13"...1870-1969 averaged close to 10.5"...so far 2017 has 12.30" since March 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 8, 2017 Share Posted May 8, 2017 Euro not giving up on the big rains for Saturday PM. GFS and CMC have an OTS solution with the coastal and an upper low that comes in for Mother's day instead. Euro does have a more S and E trend on the coastal, the big precip totals are cut off further north---0z had 1 inch rains up to MA/VT border, now it's more like the I84 in CT so we could be seeing a trender to the GFS/CMC solutions.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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