NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The latest HRRR is much quicker with rain moving in by 9PM in most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 6:30 PM, Brian5671 said: Euro's fairly dry through Sunday-keep most of the action south of the Mason Dixon line. Expand If you could go ahead and make that so it would be great. I just need Saturday into Saturday night personally. Many thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Raining nicely with nothing showing on radar. Low level moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 5:46 PM, bluewave said: Warm fronts with this much instability aloft tonight have generally been overperformers here for heavy convection. Why can't we get midlevel lapse rates this steep round here during the summer... Expand we haven't been able to get good EML advection since the pdo flip in 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 i'm more impressed by tonight's potential the more i look at it. bluewave is right about warm fronts and elevated cape here and a new mid level center develops overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 6:47 PM, forkyfork said: we haven't been able to get good EML advection since the pdo flip in 2013 Expand Seems like the most impressive mid-level lapse rates recently have been either in the winter or spring. On 5/25/2017 at 6:53 PM, forkyfork said: i'm more impressed by tonight's potential the more i look at it. bluewave is right about warm fronts and elevated cape here and a new mid level center develops overhead Expand Yeah, it has been a reliable combination for us to deliver decent convection around the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 6:15 PM, Brian5671 said: a bit off topic, but does anyone know why the Euro always shows a jackpot of QPF in the western LI sound? It's some sort of glitch. Expand GFS has had the same problem but it was centered around the Sandy Hook Nj. area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 6:33 PM, IrishRob17 said: If you could go ahead and make that so it would be great. I just need Saturday into Saturday night personally. Many thanks. Expand The mid level flow to me argues that late Saturday and Sunday anything should be well south. I'm not sure why the GFS is north with it. I think it may be overdoing the shortwave and causing somewhat of a negative tilt so the flow turns more WSW vs WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Good call by Forky and Bluewave. The new HRRR is even more impressive for tonight. Storms develop even further North than the main batch, starts around 8PM here and persists till about 6AM. 2-3" of rain in isolated spots, especially over interior NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 7:14 PM, SnowGoose69 said: The mid level flow to me argues that late Saturday and Sunday anything should be well south. I'm not sure why the GFS is north with it. I think it may be overdoing the shortwave and causing somewhat of a negative tilt so the flow turns more WSW vs WNW. Expand And it's not only GFS. GGEM actually brings a good period of rain into the area saturday afternoon. Even the NAM brings a few showers saturday evening. Enough guidance brings it far enough north that we have to keep an eye on it, even though the meteorology argues that it should stay to the south. Hopefully the Euro is right about it staying south, because a lot of people would be irritated to see rain saturday after all forecasts have been saying saturday is the one sure dry day of the holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 7:49 PM, winterwx21 said: And it's not only GFS. GGEM actually brings a good period of rain into the area saturday afternoon. Even the NAM brings a few showers saturday evening. Enough guidance brings it far enough north that we have to keep an eye on it, even though the meteorology argues that it should stay to the south. Hopefully the Euro is right about it staying south, because a lot of people would be irritated to see rain saturday after all forecasts have been saying saturday is the one sure dry day of the holiday weekend. Expand GGEM is worthless-overdoes everything...but agree with you overall, unitl we see GFS/NAM/RGEM shift south it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Enough 12z EPS members bring the rain far enough North on Saturday that the mean has 0.25"+ areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 18z NAM agrees with the Euro and HRRR on a NNJ jackpot tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 The NAM is pretty far North for Saturday too, though it still sends the main focus towards South Jersey. I think it's a mostly Sunny day with a chance of evening thunderstorms. The radar looks great down South and the storms have started to develop over SW NJ right on schedule. Looks like the HRRR nailed this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Finished the first round with 0.66". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/24/2017 at 10:16 PM, bluewave said: With a neutral ENSO and a +PDO/+AMO, it may come down to which pattern can gain dominance over our sensible weather for the summer. The +PDO is generally cooler here while the +AMO is warm. Right now we are in the cooler +PDO phase. Whether this pattern holds on or gets replaced by a warmer +AMO regime at some point remains to be seen. Or it could be a back and forth duel between the two. Expand What kind of high temps did you record during the heat, BW? We have an interesting range of microclimates in our region. Wednesday was a nonstarter, it wasn't even remotely hot here, but I noticed we were about 5 degrees warmer than JFK on Thursday (as were Farmingdale and Islip.) The high at ISP was 89 and it was 85 at JFK, while it got to 90 here at 3:10 PM. On Friday, we were hotter than JFK during the early afternoon (it hit 91 at 2:30 PM) but when the wind direction switched to west during the late afternoon JFK got into the low 90s (92) while Farmingdale and Islip were in the low and mid 80s after a high of 89 again at ISP because tstorms were passing over that area or nearby. We stayed around 90 until 5:30 and then fell into the mid 80s even though it didn't rain here, while JFK stayed in the low 90s until 7 PM. Maybe the proximity to the rain (even though it didn't rain here and was partly cloudy most of the time, maybe even mostly sunny) caused our temps to drop later in the afternoon rather than get the boost that JFK got from the post-frontal west wind (something I knew would happen, because there's always a post-frontal temp boost at JFK during the warm season lol.) But that was the biggest range of temps I've seen between here and JFK while on a west wind since the first day of the super heatwave in July 2010 when JFK hit 101 and we stayed in the upper 90s- the rest of the city was even cooler (JFK topped 100 three times in that stretch, while we did it twice.) Of course it was also strange to see us 5 degrees hotter than JFK on a SW wind on Thursday, but perhaps the 2.5 miles distance between here and the Ocean is what made for that difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 8:55 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is pretty far North for Saturday too, though it still sends the main focus towards South Jersey. I think it's a mostly Sunny day with a chance of evening thunderstorms. The radar looks great down South and the storms have started to develop over SW NJ right on schedule. Looks like the HRRR nailed this event. Expand Thanks What's Memorial Day looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 8:59 PM, Paragon said: What kind of high temps did you record during the heat, BW? We have an interesting range of microclimates in our region. Wednesday was a nonstarter, it wasn't even remotely hot here, but I noticed we were about 5 degrees warmer than JFK on Thursday (as were Farmingdale and Islip.) The high at ISP was 89 and it was 85 at JFK, while it got to 90 here at 3:10 PM. On Friday, we were hotter than JFK during the early afternoon (it hit 91 at 2:30 PM) but when the wind direction switched to west during the late afternoon JFK got into the low 90s (92) while Farmingdale and Islip were in the low and mid 80s after a high of 89 again at ISP because tstorms were passing over that area or nearby. We stayed around 90 until 5:30 and then fell into the mid 80s even though it didn't rain here, while JFK stayed in the low 90s until 7 PM. Maybe the proximity to the rain (even though it didn't rain here and was partly cloudy most of the time, maybe even mostly sunny) caused our temps to drop later in the afternoon rather than get the boost that JFK got from the post-frontal west wind (something I knew would happen, because there's always a post-frontal temp boost at JFK during the warm season lol.) But that was the biggest range of temps I've seen between here and JFK while on a west wind since the first day of the super heatwave in July 2010 when JFK hit 101 and we stayed in the upper 90s- the rest of the city was even cooler (JFK topped 100 three times in that stretch, while we did it twice.) Of course it was also strange to see us 5 degrees hotter than JFK on a SW wind on Thursday, but perhaps the 2.5 miles distance between here and the Ocean is what made for that difference. Expand 84 degrees was my max on 5-19. Exactly the same as 4-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 .79 in springfield so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 .85" here and still counting, finally puts me over 3" for the month now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 9:24 PM, bluewave said: 84 degrees was my max on 5-19. Exactly the same as 4-29. Expand I saw that people were commenting on LGA "anomalous" readings. Just driving around the last few years, I've experienced the highest temps in western Queens. The area right after exiting the midtown tunnel and getting onto the Grand Central Pkwy and around LGA and the old Shea Stadium seem to be the hotspot area of the 5 boros. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 .69" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 57° here and lightly raining, or misting. Another day with highs stuck in the 50's this month, pretty incredible. Very active down by VA and MD, tons of cells popping up. There's a real strong line forming by Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 there is hail potential later with low freezing heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 9:34 PM, Paragon said: I saw that people were commenting on LGA "anomalous" readings. Just driving around the last few years, I've experienced the highest temps in western Queens. The area right after exiting the midtown tunnel and getting onto the Grand Central Pkwy and around LGA and the old Shea Stadium seem to be the hotspot area of the 5 boros. Expand Yeah, that area probably has the strongest UHI in the Eastern US. Add that to the background warming trend and you get some impressive heat records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 9:56 PM, bluewave said: Yeah, that area probably has the strongest UHI in the Eastern US. Add that to the background warming trend and you get some impressive heat records. Expand Well, that certainly explains the middle of the night temp spikes I've experienced when traveling through that area. It's not even a subtle uptick in temps, it's a pretty significant spike of several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 Picked up 0.56" of rain so far today. Current temp 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xram Posted May 25, 2017 Share Posted May 25, 2017 .35" for the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 25, 2017 Author Share Posted May 25, 2017 On 5/25/2017 at 10:41 PM, Paragon said: Well, that certainly explains the middle of the night temp spikes I've experienced when traveling through that area. It's not even a subtle uptick in temps, it's a pretty significant spike of several degrees. Expand Yeah, LGA is the king of 80 degree of higher mins in the Philly to NYC metro corridor during the 2010's. LGA...19 PHL...12 NYC...11 EWR...10 JFK...4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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