NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:22 PM, Brian5671 said: RGEM has the same solution, hard to bet against that. Could we get a few hundreths of an inch? Sure, but this one is toast as far as anything more than knocking the dust down. Expand Okay there is a big difference between a completely dry forecast and some rain. Just like Saturday morning when we had about a 10% chance of rain, yet it was rainy and gloomy most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 23, 2017 Author Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:22 PM, Brian5671 said: RGEM has the same solution, hard to bet against that. Could we get a few hundreths of an inch? Sure, but this one is toast as far as anything more than knocking the dust down. Expand The Euro has some decent elevated convection with the warm front Thursday morning over LI and CT. We'll see if that shifts around in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:25 PM, NJwx85 said: Okay there is a big difference between a completely dry forecast and some rain. Just like Saturday morning when we had about a 10% chance of rain, yet it was rainy and gloomy most of the day. Expand This is at 3am so no one's really going to notice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:28 PM, Brian5671 said: This is at 3am so no one's really going to notice... Expand Likely before midnight. Anyway, I bet if this was snow there would have already been a thread started about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:29 PM, NJwx85 said: Likely before midnight. Anyway, I bet if this was snow there would have already been a thread started about it. Expand yep we'd hear the usual "it's further north"! The QORPFPT Model shows 1-3 for NYC! LC says big hit! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:31 PM, Brian5671 said: yep we'd hear the usual "it's further north"! The QORPFPT Model shows 1-3 for NYC! LC says big hit! LOL Expand I get starting a thread for snow when a few inches are possible, but we've literally had threads started where the expected amount is a coating at best. It looks like we're mainly too far South and West and for something significant on Thursday. The surface low develops near the benchmark and pulls the heavy rains into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:36 PM, NJwx85 said: I get starting a thread for snow when a few inches are possible, but we've literally had threads started where the expected amount is a coating at best. It looks like we're mainly too far South and West and for something significant on Thursday. The surface low develops near the benchmark and pulls the heavy rains into New England. Expand Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:44 PM, Brian5671 said: Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week Expand This whole week is basically nuisance rain. Yesterday was 55° and damp the entire day, with only .30" to show for it. Hopefully Thursday has a little more precip if it's going to rain anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:44 PM, Brian5671 said: Yep-what looked like a wet week will end up with a half inch to maybe 2 inches in far S and E locales for the week Expand See the wet appeal is enough for me. It doesn't need to be several inches of rain to be a wet stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:53 PM, NJwx85 said: See the wet appeal is enough for me. It doesn't need to be several inches of rain to be a wet stretch. Expand I don't mind as long as the weekend days are dry.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:55 PM, Brian5671 said: I don't mind as long as the weekend days are dry.... Expand The Euro takes a decaying MCS through on Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:58 PM, NJwx85 said: The Euro takes a decaying MCS through on Sunday morning. Expand Is it thread worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 7:07 PM, IrishRob17 said: Is it thread worthy? Expand Maybe, it's associated with a strong mid-level shortwave that's actually closed off at 500mb. And it has decent jet support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 7:12 PM, NJwx85 said: Maybe, it's associated with a strong mid-level shortwave that's actually closed off at 500mb. And it has decent jet support. Expand about 3 or 4 years ago there was a strong unforecasted MCS that rolled through here early memorial day. 1-2 inches of rain, was out by 10am and the sun was out...pretty wild. Some of these MCS's are poorly modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 6:55 PM, Brian5671 said: I don't mind as long as the weekend days are dry.... Expand The models have all that heavy rain over Western VA and North Carolina evaporating, otherwise it would be on a decent trajectory for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:01 PM, NJwx85 said: The best way to reply to a troll is with a serious answer Expand Indeed. There have been many leather bound books written on said topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:09 PM, IrishRob17 said: Indeed. There have been many leather bound books written on said topic. Expand Hope you have a chance to get out and enjoy the upcoming rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 NAM's drier than my mother in law's chicken through tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:10 PM, NJwx85 said: Hope you have a chance to get out and enjoy the upcoming rain. Expand Yesterday's .09" was refreshing and perfect for the outdoor project I was working on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:21 PM, IrishRob17 said: Yesterday's .09" was refreshing and perfect for the outdoor project I was working on. Expand Sorry you unperformed again up that way. Most places finished around a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:16 PM, Brian5671 said: NAM's drier than my mother in law's chicken through tomorrow night. Expand It doesn't have any of the rain that's currently falling near Richmond and points Southwest and I have no idea where it's getting that convective blob for tonight. All of the strong thunderstorms are way South of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Sorry you unperformed again up that way. Most places finished around a half inch. Expand sharp cutoff. DXR which is just 20 miles to my north had .10 while we had .55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 8:36 PM, Brian5671 said: sharp cutoff. DXR which is just 20 miles to my north had .10 while we had .55 Expand Glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 The 3k NAM has a decent amount of convection Thursday morning with the warm front. In around sunrise and out by 2PM. Then more activity Thursday night as the surface low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 62F another overcast chilly day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Last thundershower locally was April 29th. The severe season started off with such promise in April what the heck happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Tracking rain is boring Bring on winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 On 5/23/2017 at 9:20 PM, Snow88 said: Tracking rain is boring Bring on winter Expand It's progged to be an active Summer in the East for Tropical enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 23, 2017 Share Posted May 23, 2017 Looks like a weakly -PNA/+AO/+NAO regime to start June. That should result in overall pleasant conditions with progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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