JerseyWx Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 4:20 PM, RedSky said: I have said the same thing yet May as of Saturday was averaging a few tenths of a degree above average at most observation stations. Coldest March in years, warmest April ever, May a mix of both. 57F with a light shower Expand It's funny because April really didn't feel that warm. I think it was the mild nights, because after the 8th I barely had any low temps in the 30's, which is extremely rare here. As for this month, the heatwave basically obliterated the negative departures at most stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Even though most places barely picked up a couple hundreds of an inch of rain most people were upset about Saturday's blown forecast, especially when there was no mention of clouds let alone rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 5:08 PM, JerseyWx said: It's funny because April really didn't feel that warm. I think it was the mild nights, because after the 8th I barely had any low temps in the 30's, which is extremely rare here. As for this month, the heatwave basically obliterated the negative departures at most stations. Expand Right if I didn't see the data and actual numbers just going by feel I wouldn't have thought April was a top 10 warm month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 12:45 PM, NJwx85 said: I noticed last night on the 11pm news that they had the heavy rain way too far NW. Not sure what piece of guidance they were using. In any event, the rain NW of BWI will probably make it up here based on current trajectory. We'll have to see if anything else develops. I wonder if tomorrow's rains end up much further NW than currently forecasted. Expand And now it seems that the models may have overcorrected. Its coming down pretty good and many spots may hit a half inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 5:47 PM, Stormlover74 said: And now it seems that the models may have overcorrected. Its coming down pretty good and many spots may hit a half inch Expand City S and E definitely. Not sure N and W..here: a steady light rain falling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 5:47 PM, Stormlover74 said: And now it seems that the models may have overcorrected. Its coming down pretty good and many spots may hit a half inch Expand The 12z RGEM had areas immediately N&W of the city getting 0.25"+ I'm personally sitting at 0.12" on the day, but the latest radar loop looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 I am up to 0.30" of rain so far today, looks like some heavier rain about to move into my area, cool day as well, temp 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Heaviest rain of the day happening currently in Bedminster. 55 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 EWR up to .55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Up to 0.17" Steady light to moderate rain continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 0.53" here....coming down pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 .45 at BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:11 PM, Brian5671 said: .45 at BDR Expand Looks like even I might get above 0.25". Sitting at 0.18" with the back edge approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:12 PM, NJwx85 said: Looks like even I might get above 0.25". Sitting at 0.18" with the back edge approaching. Expand did better than I thought here-came down moderate for awhile-down to drizzle again and it's starting to shift away in the next couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:14 PM, Brian5671 said: did better than I thought here-came down moderate for awhile-down to drizzle again and it's starting to shift away in the next couple of hours. Expand Rgem completely schooled the American model suite once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Damp dank and chilly popped on the old gas fireplace again this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Moderate Rain here temp is 57. 0.47" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Just eclipsed 0.25" on the day and it's coming down the hardest it has all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 .25" here so far, completely meh event. South Jersey is where the big ticket rain is. I saw widespread 2-3" amounts on PWS's, some even topped 4" by Vineland. Not sure if those are overdone though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:41 PM, JerseyWx said: .25" here so far, completely meh event. South Jersey is where the big ticket rain is. I saw widespread 2-3" amounts on PWS's, some even topped 4" by Vineland. Not sure if those are overdone though. Expand How can it be a meh event when it was never supposed to be more than it currently is? Other than a rogue model run or two, it's been clear since last week that the heavy rains would be South and East of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2017 Author Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:45 PM, NJwx85 said: How can it be a meh event when it was never supposed to be more than it currently is? Other than a rogue model run or two, it's been clear since last week that the heavy rains would be South and East of 95. Expand All events seem to be judged against what the heaviest model runs were showing even if they were several days ago. But those 1-2" runs pretty much ended by Saturday before models backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:45 PM, NJwx85 said: How can it be a meh event when it was never supposed to be more than it currently is? Other than a rogue model run or two, it's been clear since last week that the heavy rains would be South and East of 95. Expand All I'm saying is that no matter what the forecast called for, 5 inches or .12 inches, this is a completely uneventful, boring, and terrible weather day in my opinion. You can see how the heavier totals are concentrated down in southern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:50 PM, bluewave said: All events seem to be judged against what the heaviest model runs were showing even if they were several days ago. But those 1-2" runs pretty much ended by Saturday before models backed off. Expand Well that's just stupid. The GFS and Euro have both been way too wet in the 5-10 day period since Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:54 PM, JerseyWx said: All I'm saying is that no matter what the forecast called for, 5 inches or .12 inches, this is a completely uneventful, boring, and terrible weather day in my opinion. You can see how the heavier totals are concentrated down in southern NJ. Expand I don't know what to tell you. Not every rainstorm is a hurricane. Perhaps you just don't like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 22, 2017 Author Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 7:54 PM, NJwx85 said: Well that's just stupid. The GFS and Euro have both been way too wet in the 5-10 day period since Winter. Expand We generally need a nice burst of convection this time of year like we got on May 5th to beat guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Just a hunch, the models over adjusted for Wednesday as well. When you look at what's going on aloft with the orientation of the jet, the precip should probably be closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 The reason why I say that is that the mid-level centers are all well NW of the main precip shield. I'm not saying it's going to be a big event but I could see something similar to today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 8:16 PM, NJwx85 said: The reason why I say that is that the mid-level centers are all well NW of the main precip shield. I'm not saying it's going to be a big event but I could see something similar to today. Expand seems like they have shifted that event back a day to Thursday....the 18z nam has no precip anywhere near here on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 On 5/22/2017 at 8:34 PM, Brian5671 said: seems like they have shifted that event back a day to Thursday....the 18z nam has no precip anywhere near here on Wed. Expand I mean the convective complex offshore tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 22, 2017 Share Posted May 22, 2017 Also, some of the guidance has measurable rain falling before midnight on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and precip usually arrives ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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