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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread


bluewave

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  On 5/17/2017 at 10:53 AM, bluewave said:

Probably the first 90 degree readings of the season for the warmer parts of the region today as 850's go above +16C.

 

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  On 5/17/2017 at 10:58 AM, dmillz25 said:

Yeah I'll probably hit 90 today. Already 67 here

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Temp now up to 64 here, so rising pretty quickly. 

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After a boring few days this week guidance flips the switch with storm chances almost everyday beginning on Friday and a possible major system towards the end of next week. Both the Euro and GGEM close off a big ULL with surface low development near the East coast.

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  On 5/17/2017 at 12:58 PM, bluewave said:

Later next week looks like our next chance to pick up a widespread inch or more of rain. Blocking and cool intensity doesn't look like it will be as strong as we just saw. But convection potential could be wild card depending on the track of the low since its late May.

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well obvious as were heading toward summer temps won't be as cool as they were before..

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  On 5/17/2017 at 12:58 PM, bluewave said:

Later next week looks like our next chance to pick up a widespread inch or more of rain. Blocking and cool intensity doesn't look like it will be as strong as we just saw. But convection potential could be wild card depending on the track of the low since its late May.

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The last few runs the ensembles seem less horrifying for Saturday through Monday Memorial Day weekend than they did a few days ago.  The major system may be Thursday or Friday and while we may be "troffy" thereafter it may at least be offshore flow and dry so no concerns of soup or washouts, we'll see. 

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  On 5/17/2017 at 1:29 PM, nycwinter said:

well obvious as were heading toward summer temps won't be as cool as they were before..

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The actual temperatures may not be as cool, but I think he was talking about departures.  Next week the average high in NYC is around 73°-74°, which means the low 60's will now be double digit negative departures.

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  On 5/17/2017 at 2:34 PM, Brian5671 said:

Euro weeklies warm through the end of June outside of a cool period next week.   Looks like a ridge pushing in from the Atlantic towards the last few weeks...

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I just hope we can get some decent rain this summer. We have had 3 consecutive super dry summers on the Island 

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  On 5/17/2017 at 2:35 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I just hope we can get some decent rain this summer. We have had 3 consecutive super dry summers on the Island 

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Some of that will come down to tropical activity later in the summer.   We've largely struck out the last 4-5 yrs with tropical remnants, storms etc.  Hell we can't even get a stalled front the last few summers with a tropical feed....it's been hit/miss T-storms that don't really deliver all that much rain....

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