NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 6:37 PM, bluewave said: It phases and then cuts off right over us so the heavy overrunning band stalls out. Expand That's the same as the GFS, except the Euro closes off at H5 further East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 What's perhaps even more comical is that the Euro drops another closed ULL over the area after this SLP departs which then lingers through day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 12z GFS numbers for select locations HPN 5.05" EWR 4.68" MMU 4.07" TEB 5.09" LGA 5.25" JFK 5.23" BDR 2.35" TTN 2.64" ISP 3.41" SWF 4.56" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 April 2007 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 48 hour rain event on the NAVGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 more flooding yay! this has to be one of the wettest springs around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 7:41 PM, bluewave said: Another 2.50" to 3.00" would put NYC right around the 20th wettest spring on record. Current 12.30"...wettest 1983...29.15". Expand Most of NYC's reservoirs are running above 100% capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 7:59 PM, bluewave said: Could carryover into the hurricane season as the Euro seasonal is wet from SC to our area for the ASO peak. Expand Excellent. Been waiting six years for an August 2011 redux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 7:41 PM, bluewave said: Another 2.50" to 3.00" would put NYC right around the 20th wettest spring on record. Current 12.30"...wettest 1983...29.15". Expand Yeah that 1983 spring was amazing...Had around 24" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 9, 2017 Author Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 8:12 PM, doncat said: Yeah that 1983 spring was amazing...Had around 24" here. Expand Everyone that had a basement in Long Beach got flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 You can presumably add the NAM to the list too. Still out of range but H5 supports a solution similar to the GFS/Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Upton not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 8:59 PM, qg_omega said: Upton not impressed Expand Do we really need to address this again after what happened not more than a week ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 9:01 PM, NJwx85 said: Do we really need to address this again after what happened not more than a week ago? Expand Yeah they messed up big time last Friday. Luckily it wasn't a snowstorm or they would be hearing it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 9:26 PM, dmillz25 said: Yeah they messed up big time last Friday. Luckily it wasn't a snowstorm or they would be hearing it Expand They were predicting 30 inches of snow but I got 3 inches of rain so bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 That's incredible. What was it like? Was it big storms or just consistently raining. Also how was the river flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 Gfs still generally 2"+ but the heaviest amounts shifted west over PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 10:14 PM, Stormlover74 said: Gfs still generally 2"+ but the heaviest amounts shifted west over PA Expand It's going to keep shifting around every run, the area of heavy rain more than tripled this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 For now, I am liking a widespread rainfall in the 2-4" range with locally higher amounts possible. We should begin to get a better idea on where the heaviest rains will set up over the next 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 10:31 PM, Rtd208 said: For now, I am liking a widespread rainfall in the 2-4" range with locally higher amounts possible. We should begin to get a better idea on where the heaviest rains will set up over the next 48 hours. Will depend on the duration otherwise it ends up another 1 to 1.5" eventSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 9, 2017 Share Posted May 9, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 10:44 PM, Stormlover74 said: Will depend on the duration otherwise it ends up another 1 to 1.5" event Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Expand Wouldn't be surprised if most of the heavy rain fell in a relatively short period, but once it cuts off its not going anywhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 On 5/9/2017 at 10:54 PM, NJwx85 said: Wouldn't be surprised if most of the heavy rain fell in a relatively short period, but once it cuts off its not going anywhere fast. Expand Yeah but that's when you tend to get more showery type stuff that doesn't add up as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Last 4 runs of the GFS have a 6:1 ratio or more on the total precipitation, for the Sat/Sun system: 20mm to 130mm. Would not want to be predicting snow totals with this kind of output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 On 5/10/2017 at 12:17 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah but that's when you tend to get more showery type stuff that doesn't add up as much Expand Well as long as the low is deepening you'll keep the heavy precip. The key is to get it to stall while it's still deepening overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Way out in fantasy range, but our first glimpse at Memorial Day weekend pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 0z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 On 5/10/2017 at 1:53 PM, bluewave said: This looks like it will be the lowest May -NAO since 2006. On the drop NYC recorded the 5th wettest day in May last Friday. Over the weekend is the next opportunity for a very heavy rain event around the area as the NAO rises again. Two heavy rains and a cool pattern is what we get in May as opposed to a much snowier solution had this been Dec-Mar. Expand Very frustrating indeed with the lousy timing. There's hope though that we could see this pattern come fall and winter with the QBO finally going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 On 5/10/2017 at 2:07 PM, qg_omega said: 0z Euro? Expand Similar to the 00z GFS, a bit more progressive. Good thing the 06z GFS trended back West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted May 10, 2017 Share Posted May 10, 2017 Heights are quite a bit lower along the coast on the GFS, this might kick East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.