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May 2017 Observations & Discussions Thread

bluewave

By bluewave,
in New York City Metro

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted
  On 5/4/2017 at 9:42 PM, JerseyWx said:

I agree.  Hopefully the ridge begins to build back in after next week.  

This is a pretty impressive cool period.  I know last May started a bit gray and wet too, but the heat quickly arrived by the second week of the month.

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2 May's ago was a torch. Last May was below normal until the final week that had an epic torch, erasing the negative departure.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
  On 5/4/2017 at 8:41 PM, bluewave said:

Yeah, looks like the winds stay up when the cold peaks early next week. Portions of NE/PA Interior SE NY/NW NJ may sneak in one last freeze of the season. Could be the last 30's many see until next fall.

 

ecmwf_t2min_12_neng_21.thumb.png.a07b37488a2082c3b68a495cec164d0f.png

 

 

 

 

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Mid to upper 30s in NYC is impressive for the second week of May. I'm pretty sure we will see frost in the burbs.

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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted
  On 5/4/2017 at 9:18 PM, SnoSki14 said:

I'm loving this cool pattern coming up, a little taste of fall in spring. We have months of heat coming up so I don't get why people are so angry at a couple of cooler weeks in May. 

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May weather shouldn't be too much to ask for in May. I don't want late March weather with a few July-like days sprinkled in.

It's really the excess cloudiness and unsettled weather I'm sick of, personally. We've had enough of it already.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 12:51 AM, Stormlover74 said:

Unless I'm mistaken 30s in May hasn't happened at NYC in 40 years 

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the last time NYC had 30's in May was May 1st, 1978...1977 and 1976 had temps in the 30's in May...this ties 1880-82 for consecutive years with 30's in May...The 1970's had four years with 30's in May...The most for any decade...

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BombsAway1288

BombsAway1288

Posted
Posted
  On 5/4/2017 at 10:30 PM, Cfa said:

May weather shouldn't be too much to ask for in May. I don't want late March weather with a few July-like days sprinkled in.

It's really the excess cloudiness and unsettled weather I'm sick of, personally. We've had enough of it already.

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Honestly, you should just move out of the NE. I know it's easier said than done or just impossible but judging by your posting history, you seem like like you don't enjoy any temperatures below 60. 30's for May is rare but it looks like it's coming. Spring weather can be very flaky in the NE and especially LI. You don't get any regular warmth, day or night, until like mid June out on the Island due to 80% of it being surrounded by cold water. 

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bluewave

bluewave

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Posted
  On 5/4/2017 at 10:29 PM, nzucker said:

Mid to upper 30s in NYC is impressive for the second week of May. I'm pretty sure we will see frost in the burbs.

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The Euro is often overdone on it's raw 2m lows around NYC. So the MOS only has low 40's in NYC. Closest freeze on the MOS is interior locations like BGM. 

  

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 57  64| 51  63| 45  56| 43  57| 45  63| 50  68| 53  69 51 69
BINGHAMTON          
 KBGM   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  58| 52  61| 42  47| 31  44| 31  45| 34  53| 40  62| 45  64 43 65
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dmillz25

dmillz25

Posted
Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 10:48 AM, bluewave said:

The Euro is often overdone on it's raw 2m lows around NYC. So the MOS only has low 40's in NYC. Closest freeze on the MOS is interior locations like BGM. 

  

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 57  64| 51  63| 45  56| 43  57| 45  63| 50  68| 53  69 51 69
BINGHAMTON          
 KBGM   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  58| 52  61| 42  47| 31  44| 31  45| 34  53| 40  62| 45  64 43 65
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That's still pretty chilly for this time of year 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 10:54 AM, dmillz25 said:

That's still pretty chilly for this time of year 

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Yeah, low 40's is the coldest NYC has been in May since 1978. The May 2010's monthly minimum so far is 41 degrees. The lowest departure for May should be early next week for NYC and get within a few degrees of -10. The weeklies finally bring the 80's potential back after May 20th. But it's a cooler pattern until then.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 10:48 AM, bluewave said:

The Euro is often overdone on it's raw 2m lows around NYC. So the MOS only has low 40's in NYC. Closest freeze on the MOS is interior locations like BGM. 

  

NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK
 KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  61| 57  64| 51  63| 45  56| 43  57| 45  63| 50  68| 53  69 51 69
BINGHAMTON          
 KBGM   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   5/05/2017  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09| WED 10| THU 11| FRI 12 CLIMO
 X/N  58| 52  61| 42  47| 31  44| 31  45| 34  53| 40  62| 45  64 43 65
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I'd be surprised if a lot of the normal cold spots like eastern LI, NW NJ, northern Westchester, etc did not get a freeze. Those places were in the upper 20s to low 30s Wednesday night with a much warmer airmass. 850s are like -5C Monday night; even with some cloud cover, a lot of suburbs should see frosts and freezes.

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WEATHERBUFF

WEATHERBUFF

Posted
Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 12:32 PM, nzucker said:

I'd be surprised if a lot of the normal cold spots like eastern LI, NW NJ, northern Westchester, etc did not get a freeze. Those places were in the upper 20s to low 30s Wednesday night with a much warmer airmass. 850s are like -5C Monday night; even with some cloud cover, a lot of suburbs should see frosts and freezes.

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I know in northeastern Pa, north of the Avoca area we has a freeze the other night.

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 11:03 AM, bluewave said:

Yeah, low 40's is the coldest NYC has been in May since 1978. The May 2010's monthly minimum so far is 41 degrees. The lowest departure for May should be early next week for NYC and get within a few degrees of -10. The weeklies finally bring the 80's potential back after May 20th. But it's a cooler pattern until then.

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The GFS finally starts to hint at warmth around the 18th.  BN until then like you said.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
  • Author
Posted
  On 5/5/2017 at 12:32 PM, nzucker said:

I'd be surprised if a lot of the normal cold spots like eastern LI, NW NJ, northern Westchester, etc did not get a freeze. Those places were in the upper 20s to low 30s Wednesday night with a much warmer airmass. 850s are like -5C Monday night; even with some cloud cover, a lot of suburbs should see frosts and freezes.

Expand  

The winds are forecast to stay up early next week so you may have to get further NW to see a freeze. Even with the radiational cooling this week, only isolated bowls like FOK had a freeze. But isolated spots like FOK can do it if the winds fall more than forecast.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

after mid month there are very few days that had temps in the 30's for lows in NYC or a max below 50...the 1960's have half of these cold days in late May...

dates........max...min...

5/24/1963..........39...

5/19/1976..........38...

5/17/1956..........39...

5/27/1961...47...41...

5/25/1967...46...42...

5/19/1950...48................

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gravitylover

gravitylover

Posted
Posted
  On 5/4/2017 at 10:30 PM, Cfa said:

May weather shouldn't be too much to ask for in May. I don't want late March weather with a few July-like days sprinkled in.

It's really the excess cloudiness and unsettled weather I'm sick of, personally. We've had enough of it already.

Expand  

Yeah it hasn't been the temps for me either but the general unsettled wetness has been a problem.  I like when we get a couple of dry(ish) weeks in the early spring before it's too warm.  As it looks now the end of this month and into the beginning of next month may dry out some but that means it will likely get really warm.

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