bluewave Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Pretty good agreement from the ensembles on a strong -AO/-NAO pattern developing during the first week of May following the warm start to the month. This is more the type of pattern that posters wanted to see this past winter into March. It could possibly be the strongest AO/NAO block since the fall as both indices have been strongly positive since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Pretty good agreement from the ensembles on a strong -AO/-NAO pattern developing during the first week of May following the warm start to the month. This is more the type of pattern that posters wanted to see this past winter into March. It could possibly be the strongest AO/NAO block since the fall as both indices have been strongly positive since then. Well of course. Maybe we can get a strong nor'easter to come up the coast. And also maybe it could be the beginning of a cooler regime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 The long range GEFS continue to show a well above average rainfall pattern in the extended rage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Brought a tear to my eyes seeing this... -AO/-NAO support this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Brought a tear to my eyes seeing this... -AO/-NAO support this solution. No! Thats my birthday weekend and I'm going to Atlantic city. That could wait a day or two give or take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: No! Thats my birthday weekend and I'm going to Atlantic city. That could wait a day or two give or take Okay don't take it verbatim, the important part is that all the models and ensembles have a major system in the 7-11 day period and it's supported by the teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Okay don't take it verbatim, the important part is that all the models and ensembles have a major system in the 7-11 day period and it's supported by the teleconnections. No I'm not I'm just saying lol. But yeah looks like a real chance of a major system in the next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Okay don't take it verbatim, the important part is that all the models and ensembles have a major system in the 7-11 day period and it's supported by the teleconnections. Well then you'll possibly be tearing up a lot this summer- weather company forecasters are forecasting a cool and rainy summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: Well then you'll possibly be tearing up a lot this summer- weather company forecasters are forecasting a cool and rainy summer. I don't necessarily want a cool and rainy Summer. I want nice days mixed in. What I don't want is an extended boring stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I don't necessarily want a cool and rainy Summer. I want nice days mixed in. What I don't want is an extended boring stretch. Same here. I like extremes (whether it be temperature or precip extremes) with nice weather between the extremes (preferably on weekends!) How did you feel about the Spring and Summer of 2014? What they forecasted seemed to be similar to that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Yesterday and last night was the most exciting stretch of weather since the mid March snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 37 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yesterday and last night was the most exciting stretch of weather since the mid March snowfalls. I wouldn't go that far, we had a nice storm in early April too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I wouldn't go that far, we had a nice storm in early April too. Oh yeah, I forgot about that one lol- I just saw heavier rain during the day and stronger winds with this than I remember with that one. I think we had a dry slot with that one during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 10 hours ago, NJwx85 said: I don't necessarily want a cool and rainy Summer. I want nice days mixed in. What I don't want is an extended boring stretch. Extended "boring periods" are better for outdoor activities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 5 hours ago, gravitylover said: Extended "boring periods" are better for outdoor activities. Completely agree but I wonder how many people don't spend more time outside than it takes to walk from a vehicle to a building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 16 hours ago, dmillz25 said: No! Thats my birthday weekend and I'm going to Atlantic city. That could wait a day or two give or take You and me both. The last thing I want is a storm, unless it's a thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: Completely agree but I wonder how many people don't spend more time outside than it takes to walk from a vehicle to a building You're talking to the man that went for a jeb walk on Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said: Completely agree but I wonder how many people don't spend more time outside than it takes to walk from a vehicle to a building Most. They are the same people that bug out if they forget to take an umbrella with them for that 100 yard or less stroll. 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're talking to the man that went for a jeb walk on Tuesday night. Yeah but that was on pavement, I don't do pavement. If that's all I was going to do some good wet weather gear and I'd be all set for whatever happens. Since all of my outdoor time is on dirt or grass (if I feel like playing golf) I prefer dry, boring weather this time of year. Mountain biking, hiking and even yardwork, which I hate but do anyway because it keeps me outside, just aren't much fun when it's muddy and slippery. It's also much less buggy when things are dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Most. They are the same people that bug out if they forget to take an umbrella with them for that 100 yard or less stroll. Yeah but that was on pavement, I don't do pavement. If that's all I was going to do some good wet weather gear and I'd be all set for whatever happens. Since all of my outdoor time is on dirt or grass (if I feel like playing golf) I prefer dry, boring weather this time of year. Mountain biking, hiking and even yardwork, which I hate but do anyway because it keeps me outside, just aren't much fun when it's muddy and slippery. It's also much less buggy when things are dry. One of my favorite hikes was during a rain storm in May. We were soaked and cold by the end of the day but it was a great experience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Familiar look on the long range globals today. Setup looks very similar to the early April storm with a rapidly deepening surface low coming up through Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 GFS is back on board with a strong system towards the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 3 hours ago, NJwx85 said: GFS is back on board with a strong system towards the end of next week. I'm skeptical. Seems like there's been a tendency for precip events to embarrass model forecasts lately (over and under). Looks unsettled either way though. On a personal level, I'm ready for some nice, sunny weekends; prefer my precip to come in the winter :-) Needless to say, I'm hating the trends for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 What a storm on the 18z GFS hrs 150-204. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 May showing few continous AN days till Memorial Day Weekend. May looking like a tossup for us. Too bad we are missing out on a Number One April, despite our summer like end to the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted April 29, 2017 Share Posted April 29, 2017 On 4/28/2017 at 7:32 PM, NJwx85 said: What a storm on the 18z GFS hrs 150-204. 995mb low and about 2" May 6-7. Also got to love those sub-zero (C) 850mb's temps that follow the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 9 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 995mb low and about 2" May 6-7. Also got to love those sub-zero (C) 850mb's temps that follow the system. The 18z run Friday had over 4" NW of the city. Since then it's cut back some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 The models are coming close to record territory for the May -NAO this week. The lowest daily reading that I could find for May was -2.028 in 2006. There was also a wet and windy storm around that time like the models are showing for the 5th. Be interesting to see if we get the first -2 NAO since July 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The models are coming close to record territory for the May -NAO this week. The lowest daily reading that I could find for May was -2.028 in 2006. There was also a wet and windy storm around that time like the models are showing for the 5th. Be interesting to see if we get the first -2 NAO since July 2015. we are getting record blocks when we don't want them...I'd like to see the nao/ao positive in the summer for a change and stay positive until November... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The models are coming close to record territory for the May -NAO this week. The lowest daily reading that I could find for May was -2.028 in 2006. There was also a wet and windy storm around that time like the models are showing for the 5th. Be interesting to see if we get the first -2 NAO since July 2015. The 00z & 06z GFS have quite the rainmaker in the Thursday through Saturday time period with what looks to be 3-5" of rain depending on location. Not sure what the other models showed for the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 30, 2017 Author Share Posted April 30, 2017 3 hours ago, uncle W said: we are getting record blocks when we don't want them...I'd like to see the nao/ao positive in the summer for a change and stay positive until November... That's exactly what happened in October with the record AO that flipped strongly positive until now. 2 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The 00z & 06z GFS have quite the rainmaker in the Thursday through Saturday time period with what looks to be 3-5" of rain depending on location. Not sure what the other models showed for the end of the week. They all have a very wet pattern around Friday with the slow moving low under the block. I guess people will be happy if most of the rain is over before next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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