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May 2017 temperature forecast (and seasonal max for 2017) contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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For the regular temperature forecast contest in May, predict the anomalies in F deg relative to 1981-2010 normal values at

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(late penalties after 06z May 1st at 1% per 2h to 18z May 2 and then 1% per hour)

Also, regular entrants can add seasonal max forecasts any time before May 15, a separate table will be developed from those predictions after May 15 so no requirement to repost, just edit them in if you want. Anyone who wants to enter just the seasonal max contest is welcome to do so in this thread before end of May 15th. 

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H2Otown_WX

H2Otown_WX

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DCA...NYC...BOS               ORD...IAH...ATL        DEN...PHX...SEA

-0.7...-1.0...-0.9                 +1.4...+2.8...+1.7    +0.3...+1.1...+0.5

98     96     92                    100      106    103     95      118      87

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Table of forecasts for May 2017

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith ____________ +3.5_ +2.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +4.0_ +2.0 ___ +1.8_ +0.2_ +1.8

so_whats_happening _____ +2.8_ +2.1_ +1.3 ___ +2.1_ +2.5_ +1.9 ___ +1.6_ --0.3_ +1.4

neckbeard93 ____________ +2.6_ +1.7_ +1.1 ___ --1.9_ --0.5_ +2.3 ___ --1.4_ +3.4_ --1.6

RJay ___________________+2.5_ +2.5_ +2.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.6_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +1.5_ +1.9

hudsonvalley21 __________ +2.0_ +2.1_ +2.3 ___ +1.7_ +1.4_ +2.0 ___ +1.9_ +0.6_ +0.9

SD ____________________ +2.0_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.5_ +2.0_ +2.0 ___ +0.5_ +1.0_ --0.5

dmillz25 ________________+1.9_ +1.3_ +1.0 ___ +3.0_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5

Stebo __________________+1.7_ +1.5_ +1.0 ___ +2.5_ +1.8_ --0.5 ___ --1.0_ --0.5_ --1.5

wxdude64 ______________ +1.7_ +1.4_ +0.4 ___ +0.7_ +2.6_ +2.8 ___ +2.0_ +2.1_ +0.1

 

Consensus ______________+1.7_ +1.2_ +0.8 ___ +1.3_ +1.9_ +1.8 ___ +1.6_ +1.0_ +1.1

 

BKViking ___ (-6%) ______ +1.6_ +1.2_ +0.6 ___ +1.0_ +1.7_ +1.8 ___ +2.4_ +1.0_ +1.5

Tom ___________________+1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9 ___ +1.1_ +1.9_ +1.7 ___ +2.1_ +1.1_ +2.0

CCM ___________________+1.3_ +1.0_ +0.3 ___ +1.5_ +1.8_ +2.0 ___ +1.2_ +2.0_ +3.1

wxallannj _______________+1.3_ +0.6_ --1.2 ___ +2.1_ +2.2_ +1.6 ___ +2.7_ +2.3_ +1.2 

RodneyS ________________+0.8_ +0.6_ +1.1 ___ --1.3_ --0.5_ +0.5 ___ +1.5_ +0.2_ +1.4

blazess556 ______________ +0.7_ +0.8_ +0.6 ___ --0.7_ --0.4_ --1.1 ___ --0.2_ +0.5_ --1.1

DonSutherland.1 _________+0.5_ +0.6_ +0.5 ___ --0.9_ --0.2_ --1.0 ___ --0.1_ +0.3_ --1.0

Damage in Tolland _______ +0.5__ 0.0_ --1.1 ___ --1.8_ +2.5_ +2.5 ___ +3.0_ +3.0_ +1.9

 

Normal __________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

H2OTown__WX ___________--0.7_ --1.0_ --0.9 ___ +1.4_ +1.7_ +2.8 ___ +0.3_ +1.1_ +0.5

 

With 18 forecasts (plus Normal) the median for Consensus is average of 9th and 10th ranked forecasts.

Highest and lowest forecasts are color coded, and when Normal is lowest, it changes color to purple from its usual green. This month we have a few below normal forecasts for each location. 

Also, welcome to CCM. ... The seasonal max forecasts will be tabulated on the 16th, feel free everyone to edit or add your forecasts by end of 15th, I won't be gathering these until the 16th so no particular need to mention an edit. As to the forecasts, those are already cross-checked now they are in a table. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Early reports after five, ten, twelve and fifteen days ...

____________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

________ (5d) _______ +4.6_ +1.1_ --2.4 ___ --6.8_ --2.9_ --3.2 ___ --2.3e_+6.7_ +2.8

________ (10d) ______ --0.7_ --2.3_ --2.8 ___ --6.6_ --2.4_ --3.3 ___ +2.8_ --0.2_ +2.1

________ (12d) ______ --2.0_ --2.7_ --3.3 ___ --5.5_ --1.2_ --2.3 ___ +2.5_ --0.2_ +1.1

________ (15d) ______ --2.3_ --3.5_ --4.0 ___ --3.4_ --0.3_ --2.2 ___ +3.6_ --0.2_ --0.1

 

________ (p22d) _____ +1.5_ +1.0_ +0.5 ___ +0.2_ +1.9__ 0.0 ___ +1.2_ --1.5_ +0.4

________ (p31d) _____ +0.5__ 0.0__ 0.0 ___ --0.5_ +2.0_ +1.0 ___ +0.5_ --1.0_ +1.5

... next update after 18 days in a new post. Phoenix 108 F on 5th, then only 74 F on 8th.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Table of entries

Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far. This table will remain in the May thread into July then will migrate over to July as we get closer to final values. So it's being updated here through June.

New as of June 13th, current scores are shown ahead of your name.  Scores are total errors to date (e.g., 2 deg = 2 points). The  total score is mostly subject to improvement except for one BOS forecast which has locked in 3 points for H2OTown_Wx. (updated June 20th,  SD and RodneyS now have three locked in points by the PHX heat machine reaching 119 today, five others have two locked in error points and six more  as well as Consensus have one locked in error point).

Also on 20th, DEN reached 99 and this hands four locked in points to H2OTown_Wx, three to SD, two points to DonSutherland1 and so_whats_happening, and one point to four forecasters at 98. The only other exceptions to points subject to future reduction would be CCM who currently has zero points for ORD as  of June 12th (95) and wxallannj who has BOS (95).  Table remains in the order of forecasts, not scores to date. Two forecasts of 119 are now "on the target" for PHX but that may not last (as of June 20th).  Two are also on target for DEN as of June 20th. Dmillz25 has both of these right on, if they last. 

Added June 25th, SEA has reached at least 96 today, this gives H2OTown_Wx and DonS nine inescapable error points and Blazes eight, Neckbeard93  seven, and  four others have four certain error points. Only two forecasters (hudsonvalley21 at 98, Roger Smith at 100) can still absorb any further increases at SEA, Tom and BKViking are at the current mark for SEA. Scores are updated.

(edits to end of June ... updated version in July thread)

 

Score / FORECASTER _______ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

52_ SD ___________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92

57_ DonSutherland.1 ________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87

55_ blazess556 _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88

47_ RJay __________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95

47_ Tom __________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96

36_ so_whats_happening _____102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94

56_ Roger Smith ____________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120 _ 100

43_ dmillz25 _______________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95

44_ Neckbeard93 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89

 

41_ Consensus (average) _____101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93

 

45_ hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98

42_ Stebo _________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92

36_ BKViking _______________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96

37_ Damage in Tolland _______100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92

35_ wxdude64 ______________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94

33_ CCM __________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93

35_ RodneyS ________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92

50_ H2O_Town__Wx _________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87

33_ wxallannj _______________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94

 

Max to date _____________ 95 __ 94 __ 95 ____ 95 __ 90 __ 96 ___ 99 _ 119 _ 96

(updated through June 25)

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Roger Smith

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Anomaly tracker will be updated for 18, 21, 24, 26, 28, 29, 30 and 31 days. Earlier reports can be found two posts back. ^^

 

_______________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

__________ (18d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.0_ +1.2_ --1.2 ____ +1.8_ --1.6_ --0.7

__________ (21d) _______ +0.1_ --0.2_ --0.1 ____ --1.9_ +1.9_ --0.3 ____ --0.4_ --1.8_ +0.2

__________ (24d) _______ --0.5_ --0.6_ --0.4 ____ --1.9_ +1.5_ --0.9 ____ --0.8_ --0.8_ +0.9

__________ (26d) _______ --0.6_ --0.9_ --0.9 ____ --1.9_ +1.0_ --0.9 ____ --0.7_ --0.6_ +1.2

__________ (28d) _______ --0.7_ --0.9_ --1.1 ____ --1.5_ +1.0_ --0.6 ____ --1.2_ --0.6_ +2.0

__________ (29d) _______ --0.5_ --1.1_ --1.4 ____ --1.3_ +1.1_ --0.7 ____ --1.3_ --0.4_ +2.1

__________ (30d) _______ --0.6_ --1.4_ --1.6 ____ --1.3_ +1.0_ --0.7 ____ --1.3_ --0.3_ +1.9

__________ (31d) _______--0.5_--1.3_--1.6 ____ --1.2_+1.0_--0.6 ____--1.2_--0.3_+1.9

 

Anomalies in bold are confirmed and scores will be final by 15z.

Record highs of 92 and 95 in BOS on 17th-18th. 92 at NYC on 18th.

High for BOS on 29th was only 54 deg.

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Roger Smith

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Final scoring for May 2017

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS ___east____ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ cent ____ TOTAL

 

Normal ________________ 90 _ 74 _ 68 ____ 232 ____ 76 _ 80 _ 88 ____ 244 _____ 476

 

DonSutherland.1 _________80 _ 62 _ 58 ____ 200 ____ 94 _ 76 _ 92 ____ 262 _____ 462

H2OTown__WX __________96_ 94_ 86 ____ 276 ____ 48 _ 86 _ 32 ____ 166 _____ 442

blazess556 ______________76 _ 58 _ 56 ____ 190 ____ 90 _ 72 _ 90 ____ 252 _____ 442

Damage in Tolland _______ 80 _ 74 _ 90 ____ 244 ____ 88 _ 70 _ 38 ____ 196 _____ 440

RodneyS _______________ 74 _ 62 _ 46 ____ 182 ____ 98 _ 70 _ 78 ____ 246 _____ 428

wxallannj _______________64 _ 62 _ 92 ____ 218 ____ 34 _ 76 _ 56 ____ 166 _____ 384 

CCM ___________________64 _ 54 _ 62 ____ 180 ____ 46 _ 84 _ 48 ____ 178 _____ 358

SD ____________________ 50 _ 54 _ 58 ____ 162 ____ 66 _ 80 _ 48 ____ 194 _____ 356

Stebo __________________56 _ 44 _ 48 ____ 148 ____ 26 _ 84 _ 98 ____ 208 _____ 356

Tom ___________________62 _ 50 _ 50 ____ 162 ____ 54 _ 82 _ 54 ____ 190 _____ 352

 

Consensus ______________56 _ 50 _ 52 ____ 158 ____ 50 _ 82 _ 52 ____ 184 _____ 342

 

BKViking _______________ 58 _ 50 _ 56 ____ 164 ____ 56 _ 86 _ 52 ____ 194 __ 358

___________ (-6%) ______ 55 _ 47 _ 53 ____ 155 ____ 53 _ 81 _ 49 ____ 183 _____ 338

wxdude64 ______________ 56 _ 46 _ 60 ____ 162 ____ 62 _ 68 _ 32 ____ 162 _____ 324

neckbeard93 ____________ 38 _ 40 _ 46 ____ 124 ____ 86 _ 70 _ 42 ____ 198 _____ 322

dmillz25 ________________52 _ 48 _ 48 ____ 148 ____ 16 _ 80 _ 68 ____ 164 _____ 312

hudsonvalley21 __________ 50 _ 32 _ 22 ____ 104 ____ 42 _ 92_ 48 ____ 182 _____ 286

so_whats_happening _____ 34 _ 32 _ 42 ____ 108 ____ 34 _ 70 _ 50 ____ 154 _____ 262

RJay ___________________40 _ 24 _ 28 ____ 092 ____ 16 _ 68 _ 38 ____ 122 _____ 214

Roger Smith ____________ 20 _ 26 _ 28 ____ 074 ____ 40 _ 40 _ 48 ____ 128 _____ 202

 

Final scoring for May 2017, western and all nine contests

 

FORECASTER _________ DEN_PHX_SEA ______ TOTAL _______ All nine ( = rank )

 

so_whats_happening ____ 44 _100_ 90 _______234 _________ 496 (=13)

 

Normal ________________ 76 _ 94 _ 62 _______232 _________ 708 (= 1)

 

Roger Smith ____________40 _ 90 _ 98 _______ 228 _________ 430 (=17)

RodneyS _______________46 _ 90 _ 90 _______ 226 _________ 654 (= 3)

Stebo _________________ 96 _ 96 _ 32 _______ 224 _________ 580 (= 6)

H2OTown__WX _________ 70 _ 72 _ 72 _______ 214 _________ 656 (= 2)

DonSutherland.1 ________ 78 _ 88 _ 42 _______ 208 _________ 670 (= 1)

blazess556 _____________ 80 _ 84 _ 40 _______ 204 _________ 646 (= 4)

Tom __________________ 34 _ 72 _ 98 _______ 204 _________ 554 (= 7)

 

Consensus _____________ 44 _ 74 _ 84 _______ 202 _________ 544 (= 9)

 

hudsonvalley21 _________ 38 _ 82 _ 80 _______ 200 _________ 486 (=14)

SD ___________________ 66 _ 74 _ 52 _______ 192 _________ 548 (= 8) 

dmillz25 _______________46 _ 74 _ 72 _______ 192 _________ 504 (=12)

BKViking ______________ 28 _ 74 _ 92 _ 194

___________ (-6%) _____ 26 _ 70 _ 86 _______ 182 _________ 520 (=11)

CCM __________________ 52 _ 54 _ 76 _______ 182 _________ 540 (=t9)

RJay __________________ 16 _ 64 _100_______ 180 _________ 394 (=18)

wxallannj ______________ 22 _ 48 _ 86 _______ 156 _________ 540 (=t9)

neckbeard93 ___________ 96 _ 26 _ 20 _______ 152 _________ 474 (=16)

wxdude64 _____________ 36 _ 52 _ 64 _______ 152 _________ 476 (=15)

Damage in Tolland _______16 _ 34 _100_______ 150 _________ 590 (= 5)

____________________________________________________

(ranks of consensus and normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters, or each other).

 

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Roger Smith

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<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (Jan-May) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 26 for May scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Meanwhile, best total scores Jan-May are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six.

 

FORECASTER _________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east___ORD_ATL_IAH__cent___TOTAL__Best scores

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 _____225 _200 _194 __619___280 _274 _301__855___1474 _001.111..1.2_ Jan, May 

 2 blazess556 __________207 _227 _234__668___250 _251 _247 __748 ___1416 __001.000

 3 RJay _______________190 _229_224 __643 ___213 _264 _283__760 ___1403__122.200..2..2_Feb,Apr 

 4 BKViking ____________170 _186 _200__556 ___201 _265 _212 __678 ___1234 __000.001

 5 dmillz25 ____________164 _169 _172 __505 ___202 _250 _254 __706 ___1211 __100.101

  

 6 Consensus __________158 _156 _167 __481 ___196 _265 _263 __724 ___1205

 

 6 Damage in Tolland ____145 _155 _162 __462 ___236 _247 _236 __719 ___1181 __000.010..0.0

 7 wxallannj ___________ 167 _170 _202 __539 ___115 _255 _262 __632 ___1171 __001.011

 8 Stebo ______________ 159 _153 _160 __472 ___150 _278_232 __660 ___1132 __000.001

 9 RodneyS ____________166 _120 _116 __402 ___223 _207 _293 __723 ___1125 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 

10 wxdude64 __________ 215 _140 _167 __522 ___202 _203 _178 __583 ___1107 __110.000..1.0

11 H2Otown_WX ________175 _182 _196 __543 ___118 _239 _199 __556 ___1099 __110.001..1.0

12 hudsonvalley21 ______ 155 _139 _150 __444 ___190 _248 _211 __653 ___1097 __000.010

13 Tom _______________ 183 _151 _153 __487 ___162 _220 _213 __595 ___1082 __000.100

14 SD _________________174 _157 _163 __494 ___204 _193 _184 __581 ___1075 

 

15 Normal _____________ 198 _155 _154 __507 ___179 _112 _144 __ 435 ___ 942 ____010.000.0.0 ___ May

 

15 Neckbeard93*_________60 _ 72 _ 95 __227 ___238 _180 _200 __618 ___ 845

16 Roger Smith _________ 86 _ 93 _ 50 __229 ___126 _100 _229 __539 ___ 768

17 so_whats_happening#__99 _ 77 _ 80 __256 ____62 _170 _153 __385 ___ 641

18 Prestige Worldwide@__111 _107_123 __ 341 ___ 25 _140 _118 __283 ___ 624 __110.010 

19 Maxim@______________80 _ 85 _ 78 __243 ___ 50 _150 _142 __342 ___ 585 __100.001

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests Jan-May 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 

 

 1 Rjay _______________ 288 _364 _413___1065 __ 1 0 1 _ Jan ____ 2468 ( = 2) ___ FEB, APR

 2 Roger Smith _________243 _319 _442 ___1004 __ 0 0 1_ Feb ____ 1772 (= 15)  

 3 DonSutherland.1 _____ 333 _363 _302 ___ 998 __ 2 0 0 __________2472 ( = 1) ___JAN, MAY

 4 H20TownWx _________325 _302 _363 ___ 990 __ 0 0 1 __________ 2089 ( = 7) 

 5 wxallannj ___________ 244 _375 _366 ___ 985 __ 0 1 1 __________2156 ( = 5)  

 

 6 Consensus ___________255 _347 _380 ___ 982 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2187 ( = 5)

 

 6 dmillz25 ____________ 260 _305 _414 ___ 979 __ 1 0 1 _ Apr _____ 2190 ( = 4) 

 7 Tom _______________ 187 _359 _394 ___ 940 _________________ 2022  ( =10)

 8 RodneyS ____________240 _375 _310 ___ 925 __ 0 1 0 __________ 2050 ( = 9) ___  MAR

 9 BKViking ____________195 _310 _402 ___ 907 _________________ 2141 ( = 6)

10 Damage in Tolland ____200 _322 _367 ___ 889 __ 0 0 1 __________2070 ( = 8)

 

11 SD_________________ 252 _307 _304 ___ 863 ________________ 1938 ( = 13)

12 wxdude64 ___________219 _298 _324 ___ 841 ________________ 1948 ( = 11)

13 hudsonvalley21 ______ 199 _298 _330 ___ 827 ________________ 1924 ( = 14)

 

14 Normal _____________ 232 _272 _322 ___ 826 ________________ 1768 ( = 16)

 

14 Stebo _____________ 217 _280 _314 ____ 811 __ 1 0 0 __________ 1943 ( = 12) 

15 so_whats_happening#_221_297 _290 ____ 808 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May  _1449 ( = 16)

16 blazess556 _________ 242 _293 _270 ____ 799 __________________2215 ( = 3)

17 Neckbeard93* _______ 293 _ 187 _107 ___ 587 __ 2 0 0 __________ 1432 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide@__ 159 _223 _170 ___ 552 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 1176 ( = 18)

19 Maxim@ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ___ 440 __________________ 1055 (= 19)

 

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr) @ two months missed (Mar, Apr)

Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2)

 March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

April late penalty deductions:

... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

May late penalty deductions:

... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12).

 

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

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Roger Smith

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It means you had high score for the western contest in those months, although provisional for May so that one could go elsewhere if (given your closest two chasers) PHX were to finish a bit higher. Missing the one month hurts but you can always look at average score, that would move you up in the west from 15th to 2nd, and in the eastern-central from 17th to 15th. 

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Extreme Forecast Update

 

In May we had five stations qualifying for an extreme forecast (either the most extreme scores high points or second most extreme wins) and two others that were close to qualifying. This brings the annual count to 30 out of 45 possible extreme forecasts.

>>> May summary <<<

DCA __ At --0.5, a win for H2OTown_Wx (--0.7). 

NYC __ At --1.3, will also be a win for H2OTown_Wx (--1.0).

BOS __ --1.6  a win for wxallannj with lowest forecast of --1.2).

ORD __ At --1.2 does not qualfiy, as there are forecasts of --1.9 (Neckbeard93) and --1.8 (Damage in Tolland), also --1.3 (RodneyS) which is high score.

ATL __ At +1.0 does not qualify, as too close to our average forecast.

IAH __ --0.6 does not qualify, DonS (--1.0) and blazess556 (--1.1) both have lower scores than Stebo (--0.5).

DEN __ --1.2 a win for Stebo (--1.0) and a loss for Neckbeard93 (--1.9).

PHX __ --0.3 a win for so_whats_happening (--0.3) and a loss for Stebo, at --0.5. 

SEA __ +1.9 this does not quite qualify with forecasts of +3.1, +2.0 and two at +1.9, third highest forecasts with highest scores.

 

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

 

RJay _____________ 7-0

DonSutherland1 ____ 5-1

Prestige Worldwide __3-0

H2OTown__Wx ____ 2-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Wxdude64 _________ 2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-0

Wxallannj __________2-0

so_whats_happening _2-0

Roger Smith _______ 1-0

RodneyS __________ 1-0

Danger in Tolland ___ 1-0

Normal ____________1-0

Stebo _____________1-2

Neckbeard93 _______ 1-1

____________________________________________

.  

 

 

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Roger Smith

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<<< --- FINAL REPORT on SNOWFALL CONTEST 2016-17 --->>>

 

The first table is the assumed final standings showing total errors to date. Errors in red  represent forecasts that are higher than actual amounts, and where errors could increase with any further snow (the season officially ends June 30, only DEN has any chance of snow in June and current models suggest very little chance, in fact, no snow fell in May there.)

Errors in black are cases where you haven't reached your predicted value yet and these errors could decrease (until you do reach your target). Your total error is shown in the last column. This table will still be updated whenever snow falls at DEN but nobody is within 7" of using up their DEN forecasts so we can assume this table is a final report even if these numbers all change slightly.

Meanwhile, the second table is the table of forecasts from November.

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA ___ TOTAL error

 

___ Amount to date _______ 3.4 _ 30.2 _ 47.6 ___ 26.1 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 19.4 __ 0.0 _ 11.2

 

Mercurial ________________13.1" _ 1.8" _ 2.5" __ 24.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 13.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.3" ____57.3

RodneyS ________________ 7.7" _12.1"_22.5" ___ 9.0" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ____ 7.3" _ 0.0" _ 4.1" ____ 62.7

Maxim__________________ 19.2" _ 9.0" _ 2.5" ___ 3.9" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 25.9" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ____ 64.2

hudsonvalley21 ___________16.4" _ 0.7" _ 4.7" __ 20.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 30.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.1" ____ 65.7

BTRwx ___________________9.1" _ 6.2" _ 5.6" __ 18.9" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 0.2" ____66.5

 

Consensus ______________ 14.8" _ 2.9" _ 3.0" __ 15.8" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 28.3" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 68.0

Normal ______________12.0"_ 4.4"_ 3.8" __ 10.2"_2.9"_0.1" __ 32.0" _0.0"_4.4" ___ 69.8

 

wxallannj _______________ 19.3" _ 1.0" _ 5.6"  ___ 9.9" _ 5.7"__ 0.2" ___ 25.5" _ 0.0" _ 3.4" ____ 70.6

Damage in Tolland _______ 11.6" _ 4.8" _24.4" __ 16.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ____ 8.2" _ 0.0" _ 7.2" ___ 74.1

Stebo ___________________14.9" _ 2.4" _ 7.7" __ 22.6" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 26.4" _ 0.0" _ 1.3" ____ 76.1

BKViking ________________12.6" __9.8" _ 9.4" ___ 6.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 33.4" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 76.1 

RJay ___________________ 13.6" _ 4.8" _12.4" ___ 8.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 38.2" _ 0.0" _ 1.2" ___ 80.1

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 14.6" _ 4.8" _17.4" __ 18.9" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 26.2" _ 0.1" _ 2.2" ___ 87.2

SD _____________________ 9.6" _ 9.2" _12.6" __ 13.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 43.2" _ 2.0" _ 1.2" ____92.7

dmillz25 ________________ 13.6" _ 8.8" _ 5.4" __ 24.9" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 39.2" _ 0.0" _ 2.2" ___ 96.1

Mallow _________________ 29.6" _12.3" _ 3.5" __ 14.6" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 33.7" _ 0.0" _10.1"___105.3

wxdude64 _______________16.5" _ 0.6" _ 6.5" __ 30.6" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 55.7" _ 0.0" _ 6.4" ____119.5

DonSutherland.1 _________ 18.1" _ 1.5" _14.3" __ 18.8" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 57.7"_ 0.0" _ 7.4" ____119.6

Tom ___________________ 18.7" _ 6.6" _17.0" __ 31.8"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 41.3" _ 0.0" _ 5.8" ____122.1
 

Roger Smith _____________ 32.3"_18.4" _27.5" __ 13.7" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 26.2" _ 0.0" _ 4.3" ____125.5

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

Actual forecasts

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

RodneyS ________________11.1" _18.1" _25.1" __ 35.1" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 29.1" _ 0.0" _ 7.1"

BTRwx _________________ 12.5" _24.0" _42.0" __ 45.0" _ 0.3" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0" _11.0"

SD _____________________13.0" _21.0" _35.0" __ 40.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 65.0" _2.0" _10.0"   

Damage in Tolland ________15.0" _35.0" _72.0" __ 43.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 30.0" _ 0.0" _ 4.0"

 

Normal ______________15.4"_25.8"_43.8" __ 36.3"_2.9"_0.1" __ 53.8" _0.0"_6.8"

 

BKViking ________________16.0" _40.0" _ 57.0" __ 33.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 55.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Mercurial ________________16.5" _28.4" _45.1" __ 50.3" _ 0.0" _ 0.0" ___ 35.2" _ 0.0" _ 8.9"

RJay ___________________ 17.0" _35.0" _60.0" __ 35.0" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 60.0" _ 0.0" _10.0"

dmillz25 ________________ 17.0" _39.0" _53.0" __ 51.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.0" ___ 61.0" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

Midlo Snow Maker ________ 18.0" _35.0" _65.0" __ 45.0" _ 3.0" _ 0.0" ___ 48.0" _ 0.1" _ 9.0"

 

Consensus ______________ 18.2" _33.1" _50.6" __ 41.9" _ 1.0" _ 0.0" ___ 50.1" _ 0.0" _ 9.0"

 

Stebo ___________________18.3" _27.8" _39.9" __ 48.7" _ 0.8" _ 0.0" ___ 48.2" _ 0.0" _12.5"

hudsonvalley21 ___________19.8" _30.9" _42.9" __ 39.3" _ 0.4" _ 0.0" ___ 52.0" _ 0.0" _11.1"

wxdude64 _______________19.9" _30.8" _41.1" __ 56.7" _ 2.7" _ 0.5"___ 77.5" _ 0.0" _ 4.8"

DonSutherland.1 _________ 21.5" _31.7" _61.9" __ 44.9" _ 1.8" _ 0.0" ___ 79.5"_ 0.0" _ 3.8"

Tom ___________________ 22.1" _36.8" _64.6" __ 57.9"_ 0.9" _ 0.0" ___ 63.1" _ 0.0" _ 5.4"

Maxim__________________ 22.6" _39.2" _50.1" __ 30.0" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 47.7" _ 0.0" _13.4"

wxallannj _______________ 22.7" _31.2" _42.0" __ 36.0" _ 5.7"_ 0.2" ___ 47.3" _ 0.0" _ 7.8"

Mallow _________________ 33.0" _42.5" _51.1" __ 40.7" _ 1.5" _ 0.0" ___ 55.5" _ 0.0" _ 1.1"

Roger Smith _____________ 35.7"_49.0"_75.5"__ 40.0" _ 2.0" _ 0.1" ___ 48.0" _ 0.0"_15.5"

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