Jim Martin Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 3 minutes ago, nwohweather said: I'm shocked no one is talking about the severe chances here. Pretty good instability building in ahead of the shear in west Ohio. Crazy weather here currently as well 53° at my house in Perrysburg, 78° 30 miles south of here in Findlay Am watching the situation along with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 30, 2017 Share Posted April 30, 2017 One of the main reasons most of the severe weather risk will not verify... socked in with clouds across much of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The Storm Prediction Center has opted to place much of the Lower Great Lakes in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms the remainder of tonight. Damaging wind main risk. Some tornado risk too, mainly in western Indiana and much of Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Little pocket of instability in central Illinois moving into Indiana, possibly associated with a small cold pool aloft. Some decent shear and cape associated with it. Will make for good sleeping weather with some late night/early morning rumbles and wind but wouldn't be surprised to see a severe cell popup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 The thunderstorm activity as it entered the Findlay area earlier this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Last 24 hours of the low pressure area responsible for the ruckus here in the Lower Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Half a dozen close encounters with Lightning Bolts and counting Scary Hug Me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 Flooding impacts are beginning to peak in Missouri and particularly the St. Louis area. 80 miles of I-44 are now closed in Missouri. I-55 will be closing later tonight as the Meramec River crests at or near records set in December 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 The dates on this should probably be extended as the same areas that got hit last weekend will be getting another 2-4" tomorrow into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 I wouldn't be surprised if we see a Flash Flood Watch be issued for the same areas that got hit this past weekend...I had right at 4" and the current 12z GFS/NAM both give me an additional 3-4" with this next system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 13 minutes ago, Central Illinois said: The dates on this should probably be extended as the same areas that got hit last weekend will be getting another 2-4" tomorrow into Thursday. Usually don't have storm threads running for a week or longer, but ok. Might need a longer term flooding thread at some point if the wet pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 2, 2017 Share Posted May 2, 2017 18z GFS has over 1.5" here while the 18z NAM is a complete whiff. Sharp northern gradient will likely set up somewhere in Chicago metro. 18z RGEM does not support the NAM so I am skeptical of the complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: 18z GFS has over 1.5" here while the 18z NAM is a complete whiff. Sharp northern gradient will likely set up somewhere in Chicago metro. 18z RGEM does not support the NAM so I am skeptical of the complete miss. NAM is the only one like that, the Euro is also in line with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: NAM is the only one like that, the Euro is also in line with the GFS. 00z NAM came back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM came back north. Good, I want heavy rain, makes my work day interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Findlay is famous for flooding. Looking like another case of it could be on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 My neighbor just to my ne told me he had almost 5 inches of rain in his gauge from storms over this past weekend. Now I might get around 3 inches more with the Thursday/Friday system. Flash flood watch out and flood warnings on rivers. I have never seen local streams so high in the 3 years I've lived in this area as I have the past few days. Only question is if that MCS deluge over southern LA might rob us of some of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Just keeps getting worse with the newer model data for the flooding potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Latest Day 1 from the WPC seems to have shifted the axis of heavier rain west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 The 18z Hi-Res NAM take on the amount of QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 Flood Watches are out for much of Northwest Ohio. Looking like two to three inches of rain on average. Of course, locally higher amounts are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted May 3, 2017 Share Posted May 3, 2017 What are your guys thoughts on the crops in those areas? Seems like a pretty severe setup with the flooding potential short term and then widespread frost/freeze issues on Saturday, Sunday and Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: What are your guys thoughts on the crops in those areas? Seems like a pretty severe setup with the flooding potential short term and then widespread frost/freeze issues on Saturday, Sunday and Monday morning. Here in central Indiana, if anything is lost due to standing water, plenty of time left to re-plant. Heck we are still within the window for first plant so re-doing parts of a field would be no problem. Other than cutting into the profit margin of course. As far as the cool temps, just calling for scattered frost here. Since it is mostly corn that is in so far it should not be much of a problem at all. These modern varieties are plenty stout and can handle scattered mild frost. Now beans would be a whole different call but there are not many beans out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 Noticing with this setup that the ensembles are being much more aggressive than the standard forecast model output. This is from the Ohio River Forecast Center proves such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 6" of rain here in Chambana over the last 7 days, with another 1" possible today. We are now under a flash flood advisory until 345. This stretch reminds me of April 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 picked up 2.25" last night...6" in the past 7 days and nws calling for another quarter of an inch tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 1.25 last night here with another 2-3 forecast by tomorrow night. Flood warnings up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 From KIND discussion lmao... SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Issued at 214 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Change little through Friday the weather will. Through Friday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 4, 2017 Share Posted May 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: From KIND discussion lmao... SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Issued at 214 AM EDT Thu May 4 2017 Change little through Friday the weather will. Through Friday... I posted the discussion in the banter thread. The whole discussion is like that. I signed it "Yoda" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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