Chambana Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Picked up 0.90" although some scattered reports of 1" from cocorah. Very wet weekend on tap for many, and that 8" bullseye in NW Arkansas and SE Missouri, is crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 18z NAM and GFS were a little more NW with the insane weekend rain NAMnest still south 00z data just roling in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 good god...00z NAM for flooding NE MO into north central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 NAM is more NW..if it were up to the 00z NAM it'd want NC IL along a line SW to start building the arks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 12km NAM looks too far northwest with the heaviest rains. Heavy convection/cold pools will keep the boundary well southeast of where it's showing the heavy rain corridor. It's dropping way too much rain northwest of the front. Doesn't look realistic at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: 12km NAM looks too far northwest with the heaviest rains. Heavy convection/cold pools will keep the boundary well southeast of where it's showing the heavy rain corridor. It's dropping way too much rain northwest of the front. Doesn't look realistic at all. I thought the same thing. But there is a pretty stout and persistent LLJ into the area on that run. IF by some chance it were to pan out, it would certainly be one of the more prolific cool side frontal rain events that I can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 NAM and GFS dump 5-8" here, with the GFS on the heavier side. Really impressive output but not ready to buy into super high numbers like that quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 NAM and GFS dump 5-8" here, with the GFS on the heavier side. Really impressive output but not ready to buy into super high numbers like that quite yet.Did you happen to catch the comparison graphic my office put up for the 18z 12km and 3km NAM runs? The 3km NAM gets more rain into the metro area but still nowhere near close to the NAM and the globals. Obviously can't take the 3km NAM solution verbatim but it's been showing a reasonable depiction of how convection could rob moisture transport well north of the warm front. WPC seemed to be accounting for that in their placement of the day 3 excessive rain outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Did you happen to catch the comparison graphic my office put up for the 18z 12km and 3km NAM runs? The 3km NAM gets more rain into the metro area but still nowhere near close to the NAM and the globals. Obviously can't take the 3km NAM solution verbatim but it's been showing a reasonable depiction of how convection could rob moisture transport well north of the warm front. WPC seemed to be accounting for that in their placement of the day 3 excessive rain outlook. Just checked it out. Have to consider that lesser scenario of course. Will also need to watch for a possible severe threat nosing into at least part of the LOT cwa, especially on Sunday. The triple point should pass through the area and forecast soundings are showing quite a bit of shear but limited instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti tornado Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just checked it out. Have to consider that lesser scenario of course. Will also need to watch for a possible severe threat nosing into at least part of the LOT cwa, especially on Sunday. The triple point should pass through the area and forecast soundings are showing quite a bit of shear but limited instability. Speaking of severe. The kentucky part of our subforum should pay close attention tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just checked it out. Have to consider that lesser scenario of course. Will also need to watch for a possible severe threat nosing into at least part of the LOT cwa, especially on Sunday. The triple point should pass through the area and forecast soundings are showing quite a bit of shear but limited instability.Definitely agree on potential severe threat on Sunday. Very high shear, especially low level, low cape and very moist/low LCL setup, with NAM being on more bullish side with instability. If the low level cape is sufficient, an appreciable tornado threat could get into or near LOT CWA. Could see warm front being reinforced south by convection a bit and thus late to get into CWA. For that reason, my guess is SPC brings a slight risk up to ILX CWA and marginal into southern LOT CWA on day 3 outlook. Interested to see what they do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Definitely agree on potential severe threat on Sunday. Very high shear, especially low level, low cape and very moist/low LCL setup, with NAM being on more bullish side with instability. If the low level cape is sufficient, an appreciable tornado threat could get into or near LOT CWA. Could see warm front being reinforced south by convection a bit and thus late to get into CWA. For that reason, my guess is SPC brings a slight risk up to ILX CWA and marginal into southern LOT CWA on day 3 outlook. Interested to see what they do. Been noticing the same for extreme southern lower MI on Sunday, with respect to the NAM and a warm frontal tornado threat. Something to monitor as there certainly would be enough forcing along the front to trigger storms and great convergence if something were to ride the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 D1 mentions a possible upgrade for OV tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Been noticing the same for extreme southern lower MI on Sunday, with respect to the NAM and a warm frontal tornado threat. Something to monitor as there certainly would be enough forcing along the front to trigger storms and great convergence if something were to ride the boundary.Yep agree, was focusing on IL but the threat could extend farther east as well. The mid and upper winds are also a bit more veered with eastward extent as well. Hard to say if NAM is handling synoptic side well yet but it does typically do a better job depicting low level instability than GFS. Had pulled a sounding with >100 j/kg 3km CAPE from NAM in central IL and if storm mode can remain discrete that would get it done given magnitude of LL shear. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Yep agree, was focusing on IL but the threat could extend farther east as well. The mid and upper winds are also a bit more veered with eastward extent as well. Hard to say if NAM is handling synoptic side well yet but it does typically do a better job depicting low level instability than GFS. Had pulled a sounding with >100 j/kg 3km CAPE from NAM in central IL and if storm mode can remain discrete that would get it done given magnitude of LL shear. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Yeah, my biggest concern with these types of setups, is that the atmosphere gets so worked over that Sunday will run out of gas due to poor lapse rates and lots of clouds/rain. Guess we will see what happens there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Yeah, my biggest concern with these types of setups, is that the atmosphere gets so worked over that Sunday will run out of gas due to poor lapse rates and lots of clouds/rain. Guess we will see what happens there.100% valid concern, if cape is even less than what's being progged then any updraft attempt near WF/TP could get sheared apart. Also wondering if kinematics of mature and strengthening synoptic system help overcome the potential negating issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just now, RCNYILWX said: 100% valid concern, if cape is even less than what's being progged then any updraft attempt near WF/TP could get sheared apart. Also wondering if kinematics of mature and strengthening synoptic system help overcome the potential negating issues. Yeah the plus side is the system isn't occluding so we do have that working for us. Also the atmosphere on the NAM for Sunday isn't exactly off the wall so it wouldn't be hard to achieve compared to something where we are expecting +4000J/kg coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 5 hours ago, Central Illinois said: WPC Insane. Looks like a post landfall hurricane rainfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 44 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Insane. Looks like a post landfall hurricane rainfall map Seems like that map is a compromise between the super wet models and an all out moisture robbing scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadohunter Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Just ignoring today. Cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 That subtle impulse in the Ozarks referenced in today's 1300 Outlook is the player I'm watching for the mid MS/lower Ohio Valley later this afternoon as storms now elevated in sw MO may become surface based as they move ne and the warm front moves northward. SPC expects initiation in the Midwest earlier today than back west in OK/TX area as mentioned in the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJo Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Between the upcoming outlooks at 1630, 2000, 0100 UTC in the evening. I really think an Moderate Risk for tornadoes is needed along the Ohio River from S OH to MO/AR. I just got an feeling this could get bad. Even though people think today looks marginal, there is very high potential for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms from OK/N TX to W PA through the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Today's 12Z NAM 3K shows quite the active late afternoon and evening from St. Louis east along the Mid MS and Ohio Valley, southern and central IN to west OH if it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 LOT is calling for record flooding on some area rivers. Obviously will depend on realizing some of those higher end amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 ARW is a good example of what could happen if the LLJ gets disrupted by robust convection. Much less bullish with rain amounts farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Mesoscale Discussion 0577 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017 Areas affected...southeast Missouri and into southern portions of Illinois and Indiana and vicinity Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281810Z - 282015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Elevated storms developing over the southeast Missouri vicinity should gradually increase in coverage, and pose a severe risk -- mainly in the form of large hail. WW may be required in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms increasing across the southeast MO vicinity, likely associated with a zone of ascent associated with a weak/subtle wave evident in water vapor imagery moving northeast across eastern portions of KS/OK and into MO at this time. A slow increase in storm coverage and intensity is expected over the next few hours given gradual mid-level destabilization in conjunction with the existing, amply sheared environment (and as hinted at by visible imagery and the latest HRRR runs). As such, we will continue to monitor convective evolution and need for a possible WW. Though risk would likely remain primarily hail, any storm development farther south -- i.e. nearer the warm front -- would require additional attention, with respect to possible surface-based severe risk. While capping (with respect to a surface-based parcel) is expected to persist, we continue to monitor areas near/south of the boundary as well -- i.e. eastward across western and into central KY and vicinity. ..Goss/Grams.. 04/28/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Public Information Statement National Weather Service Paducah, KY 800 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR April 26 2017 TORNADO EVENT... .Hickman - Graves County Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated peak wind: 95 mph Path length /Statute/: 12.5 miles Path width /Maximum/: 150 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start date: April 26 2017 Start time: 712 PM CDT Start location: 4.6 miles southeast of Clinton, KY End date: April 26, 2017 End time: 730 PM CDT End location: 3.2 miles north northeast of Wingo, KY At least 3 dozen homes and buildings sustained minor to moderate damage consisting primarily of loss of shingles, siding and trim. One home lost about a third of its roof and another had the back porch blown off. A large chicken house lost approximately one fourth of its roof structure. Several smaller outbuildings or garages were destroyed. Hundreds of trees and tree limbs were blown down. Four eyewitnesses reported seeing the tornado near Fulgham. Most of the damage was concentrated around and just north of Fulgham. The tornado weakened somewhat as it moved into Graves County and the damage track became more intermittent there. Straight line wind damage with peak winds up to 80 mph was observed in areas adjacent to the tornado track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 Tornado watch coming soon for KY per SPC meso. Tonight's Balloon Glow as part of the KY Derby Festival postponed till Sat. night. They may have problems then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted April 28, 2017 Share Posted April 28, 2017 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: LOT is calling for record flooding on some area rivers. Obviously will depend on realizing some of those higher end amounts. I'm not so sure I would be that aggressive yet just on models record flooding from Morris to Henry and 29.0 feet here at PIA which would be the 3rd highest I believe all locations are well below flood stage now the heavy rain band would have to fall perfectly in the basin ....I'm not sure how much they are expecting to fall(I wish they would release that info when they make the river forecast) but a general 3-5 inch expected in other statements....IMO it would have to be more then 3-5 to get to those stages This is assuming the bullseye won't shift 50-100 miles south translation: unless everything is perfect Huge bust potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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