NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 The RGEM slowed down the progression of the heaviest rain now until after 21z, which makes sense based on radar. If the RGEM is correct, it should be pouring for the drive home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Very little here so far. Radar looks meh. Going to need a big dump later to get anywhere near 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Very little here so far. Radar looks meh. Going to need a big dump later to get anywhere near 1-2 inches. Delayed but not denied, our rain for tonight is still off the VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 I'm not the least bit worried, the 12z UKMET had over 60mm for NYC and surrounding areas. That's well over 2" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm not the least bit worried, the 12z UKMET had over 60mm for NYC and surrounding areas. That's well over 2" of rain. Radar is starting to blossom off the NJ coast and is expanding in coverage. Looks to be a wet and windy nightX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Neblizzard said: Radar is starting to blossom off the NJ coast and is expanding in coverage. Looks to be a wet and windy nightX Exactly, plus I've managed to pick up 0.18" so far just in intermittent mostly light showers. Look how high PWAT's are, not to mention the deep moisture feed. I swear some people look out the window and yell bust without ever looking at the radar or the current synoptics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 pretty sure this counts as a nor'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: pretty sure this counts as a nor'easter It does, pretty good gradient forecasted to develop later too, though NWS said that a strong inversion will prevent a lot of mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 18z NAM is Meh. The RGEM up next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 HRRR is more robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 18z NAM is Meh. The RGEM up next... Why are you still looking at models when you have an upwind radar that's loaded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Why are you still looking at models when you have an upwind radar that's loaded? the system is weakening. Current radar is not going to be that helpful for action that's 6 hours away. Short term meso models useful in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: the system is weakening. Current radar is not going to be that helpful for action that's 6 hours away. Short term meso models useful in this range. Strongly disagree, and I'll leave it at that. Your post about the radar looking meh earlier was totally inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 time will tell. I think most stations get less than an inch out of this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Pouring here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, dmillz25 said: Pouring here Yeah finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 It's pouring in the city. Even if the heaviest doesn't happen these showers are dumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Sometimes the radar is more bark than bite, in this case it's the exact opposite, and a lot of that is because PWAT's are high. That batch of convection East of the Delmarva is really starting to blossom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 FYI, 18z RGEM pretty much held serve, 1-2" with locally higher amounts. You really have to be West of Morristown to get less than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 RGEM jackpots me! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Sometimes the radar is more bark than bite, in this case it's the exact opposite, and a lot of that is because PWAT's are high. That batch of convection East of the Delmarva is really starting to blossom. That batch is massive. My question is, where will it end up? It's obviously heading North, but it seems to be tracking slightly West as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 0.35 on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 15 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: That batch is massive. My question is, where will it end up? It's obviously heading North, but it seems to be tracking slightly West as well. Almost all guidance brings it right over NE NJ, SE NY and SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Up to 0.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Not saying it won't weaken some, but KDIX is picking up 2" per hour rates with that band SE of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Almost all guidance brings it right over NE NJ, SE NY and SW CT. That's interesting. It seems like it's moving west, but it's expanding in width as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Up to 0.40" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 0.37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 .40" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 That is one impressive blob of moisture just off the se jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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