NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 18z RGEM is another soaker for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 the rgem, nam, and sref all show an orographic enhancement distribution that i agree with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Dry air has been overcome, pouring here in Mahwah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Nam has very little before 18z tomorrow then we get slammed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam has very little before 18z tomorrow then we get slammed Good timing as a firehouse of convection develops over the Delmarva and works North through the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Good timing as a firehouse of convection develops over the Delmarva and works North through the afternoon. People are going to be surprised though when it's not doing much all morningSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 we could still get a few tenths tonight based on radar. it resembles a PRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: we could still get a few tenths tonight based on radar. it resembles a PRE Most guidance has plenty of scattered activity before the main batch arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: People are going to be surprised though when it's not doing much all morning Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk I know what you're saying but I think that's too pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 00z RGEM has almost a half inch in certain places by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Radar shows a lot of rain offshore moving towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 .04" in the bucket so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Looks dry for the bulk of the day today and then we'll see what we get tonight. High bust potential here. Could miss east. .03 here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 6z NAM shows exactly that....sharp cutoff NYC and west and most of the precip is tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Grand total of 0.01" in the park at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 6z NAM shows exactly that....sharp cutoff NYC and west and most of the precip is tonight It's amazing how badly the models struggle even 12 hours before the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Don't be foolish, ride the tremendously consistent RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Also, the forecast has been 110% on target, looks showery until after 18z, then the fun begins. If the radar looks bad at 4PM then you can call bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Classic case of the dry slot east of the cutoff coming in stronger than expected. Some convection trying to get going just east of NC. The progress of that batch will determine how much rain we get here this afternoon and evening. That dry push is down near VA beach and since the ULL is forecasted to move East and not North, it should stay down there, look at all the activity now South of Long Island moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 All you need is to get into a band like what's currently over Raleigh. Radar estimates just East of town are in excess of 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: That batch currently south of LI is much lighter than the models were showing yesterday. It has more of a showery look that the solid blob on older model runs. So we'll have to see how much the area east of the Delmarva/NJ can fill in as the day goes on for our rainfall potential. That batch currently moving onshore was always supposed to be an initial band of showery activity, the main activity doesn't arrive until after 18z and comes up from OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Not sure if people were expecting to wake up to a solid rain shield or not, this has always been, and still is a convective driven event, which by nature is sporadic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 This batch of convection off the NC coast is where our rain for late this afternoon is coming from. https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/nc/morehead-city/mhx/?region=clt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 No one is calling bust, just saying there's the potential for one. Bluewave is right, the action this AM and early PM is much lighter than forecast last evening. Agree on the RGEM holding firm-if it bails at 12z then look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: No one is calling bust, just saying there's the potential for one. Bluewave is right, the action this AM and early PM is much lighter than forecast last evening. Agree on the RGEM holding firm-if it bails at 12z then look out. Agree to disagree, the activity looked showery at best until at least early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Have to remember this is a 3 hour precip panel, not a simulated radar, so it's saying only a tenth or two of an inch through 11AM which looks about right. 18z to 03z is the flash point. 18z isn't until 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 Greater than on half inch per hour rates with that activity moving through Suffolk County currently. It doesn't need to be a steady heavy rain for hours to get significant totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Generally under an inch on the nam rgem still 1.5-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Generally under an inch on the nam rgem still 1.5-2" NAM chopped way back. Hi res nam still wet. RGEM is likely the way to go on this one and it held steady. Currently have some light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 The NCEP guidance has been pretty awful. Either way, look at the radar at this point. Suffolk County has been the sweet spot so far, but I've had a few downpours out this way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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