NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 GGEM continues with 2"+ amounts, GFS continues with less than an inch, NAM shows potential for heavy rains just West of the cities, UKMET has 1.5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 6z RGEM is a soaker for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 So is the 12z RGEM, still raining at this hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 12z NAM was 1.39 at LGA, 1.33 at JFK, 1.66 at EWR, 1.80 at MMU, 0.72 at SWF, 1.30 at ISP and 1.66 at BDR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Radar looks really good down South, near stationary fire hose pointed at portions of the Carolinas. Whole area is under a flash flood watch with some radar estimates >5" already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Gfs half inch or so for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs half inch or so for most always the dry model. With a deep tropical connection, most will see at least an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: always the dry model. With a deep tropical connection, most will see at least an inch bill evans on the noon news the models were showing on the future cast almost 2.5 inches of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 39 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs half inch or so for most Amazing how awful that model has become, the PARA GFS looks like most of the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Slight shift East on the GGEM putting the heaviest totals over Long Island this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 12z UKMET is just under 50mm for NYC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z UKMET is just under 50mm for NYC proper. NYC is 72mm on the Ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 the sun rises in the east, the sky is blue, 2+2 = 4, and the gfs is always dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, ag3 said: NYC is 72mm on the Ukmet. Link, mine was an estimate using the metrogram. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: Link, mine was an estimate using the metrogram. Meteogram is 30mm twice. Plus 8mm + 5mm. Total precip map also has NYC in the 50mm-75mm red shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, ag3 said: Meteogram is 30mm twice. Plus 8mm + 5mm. Total precip map also has NYC in the 50mm-75mm red shade. You're looking at the old 00z run. 12z is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: You're looking at the old 00z run. 12z is less. Yeah. You are right. Sorry. 12z Ukmet meteograms are right at 50mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 once again, don't get hung up on qpf specifics when there's convection involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, forkyfork said: once again, don't get hung up on qpf specifics when there's convection involved Good point, look at what's going on down South, although AFD from NWS indicates storm should weaken as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Anyone have the 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: Similar to the other non GFS guidance. Numerous 1 inch + amounts with localized maxes near 2 inches. Thank you, seems like a solid event with some embedded surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thank you, seems like a solid event with some embedded surprises. only downside is the system is weakening as it comes up, so 2 inches is probably the ceiling for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: only downside is the system is weakening as it comes up, so 2 inches is probably the ceiling for this one... True, but still a fairly healthy LLJ should pass overhead. Dynamics are weakening tomorrow evening, but not really until the system is already overhead. Granted this is the GGEM, but you can clearly see the firehose here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 I agree-even if weakening, that firehose will dump a quick 2 on someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 That current band just West of Wilmington means business. Narrow area of >1" per hour rates training over the same locations. Radar estimates are 6"+ locally in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 49 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Thank you, seems like a solid event with some embedded surprises. Euro screws your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: Euro screws your area Could very well end up with a lot of screw zones because of the convective nature and training of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 just looked at the Euro-it's a bit east of other guidance. NAM is further west with the best rains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Same deal on the 18z NAM, without getting into too much specifics. PWAT's max out around 1.50" and soundings indicate a good amount of elevated instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 pretty sure this distribution isn't going to happen. look at the weird maxes over the water and ct valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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