Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, Stebo said: Your class status is irrelevant though if you are about to graduate, I would suggest if you are going to make a qualitative post about something back it up with data and reasoning. You should be able to if you are as far along in the degree as you are suggesting. Couldn't have said it better myself! In this thread you have to back what you say, not someone else's word on it. Clearly you are done arguing because you have no argument. Your replies show your maturity. We all respect each other pretty well in here and you are being cocky and condescending to people with vast knowledge in meteorology. I hate to go off topic about the setup we are suppose to be discussing but I needed to rant. Anywho eager to see 0z data. Can't get much worse right? Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Couldn't have said it better myself! In this thread you have to back what you say, not someone else's word on it. Clearly you are done arguing because you have no argument. Your replies show your maturity. We all respect each other pretty well in here and you are being cocky and condescending to people with vast knowledge in meteorology. I hate to go off topic about the setup we are suppose to be discussing but I needed to rant. Anywho eager to see 0z data. Can't get much worse right? Ha. Yep completely agree, and also be willing to admit fault and being wrong. If the data about data assimilation and RAOBs shows that I am wrong, I have no issue admitting that. I am 9 years removed from college and still constantly learning because if you don't learn post college you will never advance in this field, it will pass you by before you realize it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 00z NAM brings a nice tongue of 60s DPs into southern OK by 12Z Friday... But shows significant cyclogenesis occuring on Thursday evening which complicates things... Yea that late night cyclogenesis really screws up Fri on GFS. It pushes everything east away from incoming jet. Did Euro show this to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Also, FWIW, over on the EC this would be a scenario where we would be looking at the ensembles to see what percentage of the solutions were showtime. I rarely see ensembles in the severe threads, which is interesting since they're such a critical tool for EC storms. I'm probably chasing for the first time within the next 3 weeks (thankfully, someone else doing the driving) so I am just a total noooooob when it comes to this . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yea that late night cyclogenesis really screws up Fri on GFS. It pushes everything east away from incoming jet. Did Euro show this to? Euro doesnt really show cyclogenesis on thursday, but the low-level flow is still veered significantly friday morning thanks in part to the large spiraling high pressure east of florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 To me the main issue now doesn't seem to be the Wed system scouring out moisture, it seems to be this deepening low Thurs night that pushes the llj east. If that didnt happen we could see a more robust threat Fri and further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Unless a high authority such as dtk or someone else with that particular background has something to add, let's move on from the RAOB sampling discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 The intense s/w modeled for Thursday does look problematic for Friday's event (see attached). Needless to say, Thursday itself would be a big threat if not for the moisture scouring behind tomorrow's system. I can't recall a single case in April around here where a s/w like this moved through, and then another on its heels led to a major severe weather event the following day. In fairness, this is a somewhat unusual pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Yeah... That S/W and the associated cyclogenesis that occurs is definitely looking like the biggest fly in the ointment at this point to me, still time for some change. On another note, the 00Z GFS, much like the 00Z NAM is quicker to get into a favorable moisture return pattern. We'll have to see if that changes anything, but I doubt it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, jojo762 said: Yeah... That S/W and the associated cyclogenesis that occurs is definitely looking like the biggest fly in the ointment at this point to me, still time for some change. On another note, the 00Z GFS, much like the 00Z NAM is quicker to get into a favorable moisture return pattern. We'll have to see if that changes anything, but I doubt it will. A step in the right direction but def worried about low level wind fields if we get too many lows. The weakening from Thurs night and new one developing later Fri. Could screw up LLJ axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 GFA improved a bit in many regards. Moisture return is a bit better, lead shortwave is weaker and main shortwave Friday afternoon looks a little more consolidated. LLJ axis still looks meh, but overall this threat certainly doesn't look dead yet. Edit; looking at some forcast soundings for SE Oklahoma, it actually doesn't look that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, mob1 said: GFA improved a bit in many regards. Moisture return is a bit better, lead shortwave is weaker and main shortwave Friday afternoon looks a little more consolidated. LLJ axis still looks meh, but overall this threat certainly doesn't look dead yet. Definitely more favorable than the 12z run but a long ways to go. Far from over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 GFS took a big step forward IMO, especially with northward advancement of the warmfront... Now if cyclogenesis could just occur a couple hours sooner.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Not utterly amazing because low-level winds are fairly modest (see kink in low-level hodo), but its not too bad. Directional shear is fantastic in the lowest 3km. Near the Red River Friday at 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 11 minutes ago, jojo762 said: Not utterly amazing because low-level winds are fairly modest (see kink in low-level hodo), but its not too bad. Directional shear is fantastic in the lowest 3km. Near the Red River Friday at 7pm. Wouldn't take much more to significantly improve this. This run quickly weakened that overnight low and developed the one Fri quicker. Hopefully that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Wednesday looks like a tamer version of 4/25/11. That period in late April is an example of things going almost entirely perfect for bigger April severe stretches. This time around, it looks more like run-of-the-mill stuff (at least compared to the last few months of April), if not a downright train wreck given the synoptic pattern. Tuesday looks like a borderline cap bust, although there may be a very narrow window for a tornado in the north-central/northeast OK to southeast KS vicinity early in the evening. Models have waffled a bit with convective initiation in the 00-02z time frame with a very quick linear transition. Wednesday still has issues, but could, at the very least, produce a few brief QLCS tornadoes. If shear vectors were less parallel to the surface boundary, it would probably be a central Arkansas local climo tornado event with channeling of backed low-level flow pairing with a seasonably impressive CAPE/shear overlay. Still, enlarged 0-1km hodographs and more than adequate deep layer speed shear could allow for a few short-lived supercell tornadoes. I'm not getting into details for late week just yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 SPC went with a fairly larged ENH risk -- with a hatched sig svr area-- for Wednesday across much of Arkansas and southeast Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 25, 2017 Author Share Posted April 25, 2017 http://www.ustornadoes.com/2017/04/24/tornado-threat-forecast-april-24-30-2017/ 4-10 tornadoes on Friday12-30 on Saturday10-25 on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Looking at the 12z NAM soundings for Southern Arkansas/Northern Louisiana tomorrow evening, there seems to be a bit of a cap between 850mb and 700mb. Wonder if that could limit thunderstorm development to a certain degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Southeast of Little Rock, Arkansas tomorrow evening off the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Mitigating factors for tomorrow are that surface parcels may be capped ahead of the frontal advance and shear vectors near the front are more parallel to it. Conditions up against the front might be supportive of tornadoes though. I'm just wondering if clustery or even LEWP convective modes closer to the front will be more of the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 The HRRR has been interesting the last few runs east of the OKC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, JasonOH said: The HRRR has been interesting the last few runs east of the OKC metro. For what timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, okiestormgeek said: For what timeframe? starting around 0z to 4z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 12Z GFS needs some small timing improvements and Friday would be game on. A tinge faster moister return and a tad earlier (maybe a bit north as well) cyclogenesis and it's a decent day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okiestormgeek Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Just now, mob1 said: 12Z GFS needs some small timing improvements and Friday would be game on. A tinge faster moister return and a tad earlier (maybe a bit north as well) cyclogenesis and it's a decent day. What region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 1 minute ago, okiestormgeek said: What region? A bit SE of the good chase region in OK. Although if the shortwave early Friday continues to trend weaker and the warm front can get a bit further north, that might change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CGChaser Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: A bit SE of the good chase region in OK. Although if the shortwave early Friday continues to trend weaker and the warm front can get a bit further north, that might change. If you're speaking of 12z GFS, directly it would highlight threat from Wichita Falls -> I-35, which is a fine chase region. Not saying this is how it'll happen, but the general area modeled by 12z is fine chasing area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 A combination of the Thursday evening shortwave shearing out more quickly and a slightly earlier/more coherent shortwave the following evening is allowing some just-in-time lee-side cyclogenesis to occur in west Texas. We'll see how this trends with other guidance and successive model runs, since it has been flaky recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 25, 2017 Share Posted April 25, 2017 Is anyone else getting a little interested in Tulsa area for later this evening? Seems to be a growing threat of big hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.