bdgwx Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 25 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Well Friday's threat went south quickly last night. Anyone with better Euro access care to comment? The crappy maps I'm seeing make it look like the warm front barely makes it to the Red River by Friday evening. I have to head off to work so I only took a quite look, but yeah, at 18Z the warm front isn't very far north. And there's almost no low level wind shear at all. The warm front does continue to push northward in the evening, but due to a lack of wind shear it doesn't look very tornadoey. I will say the nocturnal LLJ ramps up a little bit with instability continuing to build after dark so it looks more like an overnight threat to me if anything. There's much better low level wind shear in MO on Saturday, but not as much instability or bulk shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 I'd say the trend towards a more amplified lead wave and associated stronger frontal surge in its wake, pending substantial changes in trend with upcoming model runs, will just about do it for Friday. (with respect to anything resembling an outbreak) Gonna need to see some reversals on cold front surge if we want anything big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 From the National Weather Service in Norman, Oklahoma... Friday through Sunday, chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase during this time frame, though exact details remain very uncertain. A warm front may lift northward and could serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development late on Friday. Forecast model instability (MUCAPE 2000-5000 J/kg), moisture (surface dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s), and shear (0-6 km shear 40-70 kt) will be near climatological maximums for this time of year which could support significant severe storms and very heavy/excessive rainfall that could result in flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Aside from the severe weather risk this week, rainfall totals look to be very healthy across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Does anyone know what 0z Euro showed last night? Was it as amped as GFS on the Tues-Wed system? Was curious if its cf intrusion was as atrocious as GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Does anyone know what 0z Euro showed last night? Was it as amped as GFS on the Tues-Wed system? Was curious if its cf intrusion was as atrocious as GFS. It was just as bad or worse. Warm front barely makes it back to Red River by Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 12z NAM is actually showing a fairly impressive environment for Central/South AR on Wed. MLCAPE of 3000+ with 60+ kts bulk shear and 350+ m2s2 SRH contributing to STP values of 4+. The NAM even tries to convect with discrete/semi-discrete structures. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 36 minutes ago, monsoonman1 said: 12z NAM is actually showing a fairly impressive environment for Central/South AR on Wed. MLCAPE of 3000+ with 60+ kts bulk shear and 350+ m2s2 SRH contributing to STP values of 4+. The NAM even tries to convect with discrete/semi-discrete structures. Something to watch. The one flaw with this setup that I see would be the veer back veer wind fields showing in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 57 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: It was just as bad or worse. Warm front barely makes it back to Red River by Friday evening. Oh wonderful. Just what I wanted to hear. I hope as it gets closer it trends back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Well, the 12z GFS has the risk mainly in east Texas/west Louisana/Arkansas. The Model Madness continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Southeast of Dallas, Texas Friday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 11 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Well, the 12z GFS has the risk mainly in east Texas/west Louisana/Arkansas. The Model Madness continues. Good moisture barely overlaps with the favorable shear profiles. Net result is a run of the mill late April slight risk worthy event. It will be unbelievably bad luck if we make it through this entire week without a single decent event given the number of potential days and quality of moisture waiting in the gulf. Ultimately I think the same problem we have been having will be the culprit again...too many waves spaced too close together. Moisture just hasn't been able to recover into the plains in front of a quality trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 These run to run variations are insane. We went from decent agreement to chaos. 12z GFS pretty much wiped out any threat for most of OK. Seems like that first low pulled the moisture and LLJ east. The evolution of it was strange. Not sure what to believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said: Good moisture barely overlaps with the favorable shear profiles. Net result is a run of the mill late April slight risk worthy event. It will be unbelievably bad luck if we make it through this entire week without a single decent event given the number of troughs and quality of moisture waiting in the gulf. Ultimately I think the same problem we have been having will be the culprit again...too many waves spaced too close together. Moisture just hasn't been able to recover into the plains in front of a quality trough. Unfortunately I think you are right. Horrible spacing and timing. Having a pattern too active. That's hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc0303 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 It's a weird evolution being depicted by the GFS.. Primary cyclone Thursday goes east and renewed cyclogenesis happens too late on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Major issues now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said: Major issues now. Talk about rubbing it in. Remember folks, this setup is still subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wotan Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 First I've really seen severe risk showing up for SE Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Talk about rubbing it in. Remember folks, this setup is still subject to change. I think he's mainly referring to the chase aspect for this event. South of the Red River and into the "less desirable" terrain/radar hole still look pretty decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 With that kind of SRH, I wouldn't be quaking in my boots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 Sometimes what we see on the forecast models, and what the Storm Prediction Center sees with the same data, can be vastly different. Just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 FWIW, here was the 00z ECMWF for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 On the plus side, we can only get better, as we can't get much worse... or things could stay steady state and be terrible. Seems hard to believe that we could end up with nothing. As it sits: Tuesday: capping Wednesday: VBV Thursday: sweeping cold front obliterates moisture Friday: Cyclogenesis occurs too late, warm front doesn't lift far enough north... capping... meh low-level winds... saturday: persistent warm-sector crapvection sunday: Much further east... but persistent warm-sector convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 I've never been a fan of late April in the Plains, so this doesn't shock me. We're just a couple weeks away from when rich moisture tends to become an easy commodity not requiring 2-3 days of ideal antecedent flow. Until we hit that point in the season, any overly active pattern/sequence will continue to bite us, as it did back in late March and the beginning of this month. This week does admittedly look like among the most egregious "wastes" of a 5-day stretch you could draw up this time of year, though, going by 12z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 24, 2017 Author Share Posted April 24, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 35 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: I *really* hate that he's using the term "major outbreak just based off of some experimental parameter that he has failed to clue anyone in on what its actually comprised of. Just really doesn't seem professional to me at all. I remember those charts busting significantly multiple times last year. /rantover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 12Z Euro advances the warm front and associated low-level moisture and instability further north than the GFS on Friday... but cyclogenesis doesn't occur until too late due to crappy wave timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 39 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: I *really* hate that he's using the term "major outbreak just based off of some experimental parameter that he has failed to clue anyone in on what its actually comprised of. Just really doesn't seem professional to me at all. I remember those charts busting significantly multiple times last year. /rantover Yeah I agree. This is almost Reed Timmer levels of overhyping, and for the exact same, self-serving reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 33 minutes ago, jojo762 said: 12Z Euro advances the warm front and associated low-level moisture and instability further north than the GFS on Friday... but cyclogenesis doesn't occur until too late due to crappy wave timing. Exactly. Plenty of CAPE and bulk shear for severe weather...no doubt. But, without a LLJ tornadoes are going to be spotty at best on Friday. As far as tornado ingredients MO/AR look better on Saturday than OK/TX on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 24, 2017 Share Posted April 24, 2017 1 hour ago, jojo762 said: 12Z Euro advances the warm front and associated low-level moisture and instability further north than the GFS on Friday... but cyclogenesis doesn't occur until too late due to crappy wave timing. Yeah, it's almost more of an F U than just totally blowing the setup up like the GFS. To have both tomorrow (Tue) and Fri feature warm sectors that unstable with a really solid synoptic-scale trough over the western CONUS... Not to mention this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.