Superstorm93 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, jojo762 said: I'm actually okay with the way the end of the line looks as far as cell spacing goes, still some definite potential for semi-discrete supercells later on... But that kink in the low-level hodograph is really demoralizing and if that doesn't fix the tornado threat will be significantly tempered. Yeah, there are some little cells trying to go up on Goes-16, but literally only the lowest 2km of that profile are good. And like Quincy said, I doubt anything significant comes from that line in AR aside from a weak QLCS tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Yea Nam never liked that setup in Iowa last week and was right. Hopefully it is wrong this time. I'm feeling better about CI and tornado potential Fri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 9 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Yeah, there are some little cells trying to go up on Goes-16, but literally only the lowest 2km of that profile are good. And like Quincy said, I doubt anything significant comes from that line in AR aside from a weak QLCS tornado. 700mb winds will veer a bit with time. There is a band of convective cells going up west of SHV and another subtle band is showing up to the east. Those area the main areas to watch and will be the difference between a gusty squall line with a few embedded spinups and something more significant. Predicting convection is not a perfect science. Remember the Alexandria tornado earlier this year? Most of the focus was on points west. Aside from that cell, most of the other convection that day was messy and/or linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 SPC has dropped the moderate risk. Enhanced remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 SPC made the right call, though most were weary of MOD upgrade in the first place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 either my computer is wonky or pivotal is off. I took a quick glance at NAM 12Z for 03Z and 06Z and didn't see much happening north I-40/OKC area. please tell me I have looked at the wrong runs!! I swear I saw some potential late time storms for this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Storm north of Shreveport starting to take on supercell traits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Misstertwister said: either my computer is wonky or pivotal is off. I took a quick glance at NAM 12Z for 03Z and 06Z and didn't see much happening north I-40/OKC area. please tell me I have looked at the wrong runs!! I swear I saw some potential late time storms for this run As it currently sits: Thursday night: slight chance of showers/thunderstorms Friday: Partly sunny/cloudy Friday Night: Almost definitely will get storms, as well as saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 never mind....I was on the wrong day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misstertwister Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 7 minutes ago, jojo762 said: As it currently sits: Thursday night: slight chance of showers/thunderstorms Friday: Partly sunny/cloudy Friday Night: Almost definitely will get storms, as well as saturday. thanks jojo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freshgeek Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1900hurricane Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Analogs do not make an event, but the CIPS analog guidance based off of the 12Z GFS is showing a decent tornado signal for parts of North Texas for Saturday. I think the primary threat area may be a little east of analog guidance based on where the low level jet is expected to be at the time, but it's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 18Z NAM... IF discrete convection occurred in this, it would be capable of all severe hazards including sig tors. But that's the thing... Most other models, 1. Do not favor an environment as volatile as this, and 2. favor more of a linear convective mode... NAM also shows much stronger upper-level winds in this area than other models do, it is also the long-range NAM so it should be taken skeptically, but still makes you wonder. SE OK... NW Arkansas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weatherdemon Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Tulsa NWS thinking the warm front will be Near I40. Norman NWS is thinking I 44. I'm leaning I40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monsoonman1 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Some decent circulations in the QLCS moving through east AR right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 18Z 3KM NAM (yes, I know...) keeps the warm sector capped most of Friday. It fires up some slightly-elevated storms around 9-10PM and has them moving north through southern Oklahoma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 New Tornado Watch forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Storm near Ashland and Saline, LA is looking interesting... Has a semi-discrete supercell structure w/ broad rotation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 26, 2017 Share Posted April 26, 2017 Discrete cells stood no chance and keep lining up. Good call from many in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 5 hours ago, bdgwx said: Agreed. I like that area in north central LA as well. Ha...2 reports in all of LA so far. I can guarantee this won't be the last time I blow a forecast. I'll take this one on the chin and learn from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Just now, bdgwx said: Ha...2 reports in all of LA so far. I can guarantee this won't be the last time I blow a forecast. I'll take this one on the chin and learn from it. It's okay brother I bought in too. One of those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 20 hours ago, Quincy said: Tomorrow looks like a waste too with fairly strong odds that a squall line develops by midday/early afternoon and plows through the Arklatex to lower to mid-Mississippi Valley region. QLCS tornadoes certainly remain a possibility, but not much discrete activity is expected despite strong instability, >50kts deep layer shear and sharply backed low-level winds. (In some of the worst chase territory as well) Should have left it at that. 17 hours ago, Quincy said: The setup reminds me a little (only distantly similar) to 11/17/15, where a squall line 10% tornado outlook busted horribly. Overall, the tornado-driven moderate risk seems a bit conditional Only "a bit conditional..." One of the biggest moderate risk busts I can recall in my young chasing career along with 4/29/14. The mid-levels really did this event in, between kinky wind profiles and warm sector capping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Don't want to beat this drum... But add this to the growing list of SPC 10%+ Tornado probability busts this year. (Mostly due to being aggressive on days with tremendous ingredients but questionable storm-modes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upper Level LOL Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 This season seems to have made fools of all of us at one point or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 The 18z GFS, NAM, and NAM 3k soundings for the Dallas area Friday Evening. GFS seems to be more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 53 minutes ago, Upper Level LOL said: This season seems to have made fools of all of us at one point or another Isn't that the truth. Makes Friday even trickier for them to put category map together. Woke up to a 15 percent hatched today, then tonight not much happened outside of run of the mill severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 From 15% hatched tornado this morning to... well... was there even a tornado warning? Jeez, talk about a bust. Yeah I know it happens but this one was pretty iffy to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 29 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Isn't that the truth. Makes Friday even trickier for them to put category map together. Woke up to a 15 percent hatched today, then tonight not much happened outside of run of the mill severe. I disagree. Today had obvious issues, wind profile + storm mode, Friday generally looks a lot better aside from the NAM. As long as we get the LLJ to kick up by ~00z we'll be fine given the impressive veering with height and strong instability, storms should also remain discrete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 27, 2017 Share Posted April 27, 2017 Tulsa survey found, 2, EF-1 tornadoes last night with the head of that bow echo near Adair, OK. Looks like they were on the ground at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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