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Late April severe weather risk ~Mon thru next Mon 4/24-5/01


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10 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Was wondering if something else would pop... as GOES-16 shows some other substantial CU south of where the current storm is that looks like it was about to go.

Looking WNW from Edmond now, the cu field looks rather healthy and is gaining more height. Definitely attempting to break the cap. 

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9 minutes ago, Quincy said:

Looking WNW from Edmond now, the cu field looks rather healthy and is gaining more height. Definitely attempting to break the cap. 

CU line on the GOES 16 rapid-scan seems to be growing fast south to I-40. Should see initiation of that activity by 7PM CT. I still find it disconcerting that the HRRR wants to absolutely smack my home with nasty hail (OUN). 

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Station near Enid malfunctioned slightly lol...

Enid, Enid Woodring Regional Airport (KWDG)

Lat: 36.38°NLon: 97.79°WElev: 1168ft.
wind_bkn.png

Mostly Cloudy and Windy

72°F

22°C

Humidity 69%
Wind Speed NW 1985 mph
Barometer 29.40 in
Dewpoint 61°F (16°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Last update 25 Apr 5:47 pm CDT
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Line segment ongoing northeast of OKC. Cold front has passed the city. Large T/Td spreads with the 00z OUN sounding, although there's a nice, vertically veering wind profile. Some post-frontal convection is trying to form. Pretty meh, unless things change in a hurry. 

AF1C61B8-83C6-476B-BC10-A6F98AFD0B23-7795-00000668A6A258EE.gif.d61a12070f94b57b1c50e0acd0acabd7.gif

 

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Might not be in the central subforum area, but this one nasty sounding for the Pittsburgh PA Area on Thursday, SPC has no risk area for here, but it will be smart to put an Slight or Enhanced based on the consistency of showing an alright severe potential with the First storm system down in the OK/KS area now

Regarding tonight, I won't be shocked if we see some tornadoes this evening in NE OK/SE KS area

2017042518_NAMNST_052_41.06,-79.11_severe_ml.png

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Just now, JoJo said:

Might not be in the central subforum area, but this one nasty sounding for the Pittsburgh PA Area on Thursday, SPC has no risk area for here, but it will be smart to put an Slight or Enhanced based on the consistency of showing an alright severe potential with the First storm system down in the OK/KS area now

Regarding tonight, I won't be shocked if we see some tornadoes this evening in NE OK/SE KS area

2017042518_NAMNST_052_41.06,-79.11_severe_ml.png

Convectively contaminated you can tell because of the Omega values being off the charts on the left hand side of the sounding.

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Convectively contaminated you can tell because of the Omega values being off the charts on the left hand side of the sounding.

Well yeah i do see that, but i was looking into the forecasts and trends, seems to be isolated lone storms in this environment. I think there might be an weak cap presence through the day.  All i can say this is an conditional but potentially significant severe in this kind of environment

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Just now, JoJo said:

Well yeah i do see that, but i was looking into the forecasts and trends, seems to be isolated lone storms in this environment. I think there might be an weak cap presence through the day.  All i can say this is an conditional but potentially significant severe in this kind of environment

Yeah I looked, I see what you are saying, but that storm modulates the environment around it enhancing the parameters which is why you are seeing what you see there. I do think there might be a risk area around there albeit a conditional one.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Yeah I looked, I see what you are saying, but that storm modulates the environment around it enhancing the parameters which is why you are seeing what you see there. I do think there might be a risk area around there albeit a conditional one.

Yes i agree 100% but living in this part of the country, some this conditional type of events drop an few tornadoes (strong one or two)  The greatest example is 2003 out east of Harrisburg they got an F3 (if occurred today it would have been an EF4) that's the only way to describe a whole house being swept off an foundation and thrown into a lake around 50-75 Yds of east of the concrete slab

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SBCINH quickly increasing. Storm mode looks to stay linear south of US-412. HRRR has done a great job with convective mode, although storms did initiate slightly ahead of schedule. May have a brief window for a tornado (next couple of hours) in far northeastern OK/adjacent KS where storms are a bit more cellular in nature and shear vectors are not as parallel with the front as they are to the south. 

IMG_1349.thumb.JPG.9b5a7006fd92768802073f4b644b9a4d.JPG

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7 minutes ago, Quincy said:

SBCINH quickly increasing. Storm mode looks to stay linear south of US-412. HRRR has done a great job with convective mode, although storms did initiate slightly ahead of schedule. May have a brief window for a tornado (next couple of hours) in far northeastern OK/adjacent KS where storms are a bit more cellular in nature and shear vectors are not as parallel with the front as they are to the south. 

IMG_1349.thumb.JPG.9b5a7006fd92768802073f4b644b9a4d.JPG

From SPC...

IN ADDITION TO THESE STORMS, CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER  
SOUTH ALONG/WEST OF THE BOUNDARY. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA  
DEPICT MID-LEVEL PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF OKC,  
SUGGESTING IMPROVED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN  
APPROACHING IMPULSE. THIS ASCENT WILL FURTHER REDUCE CONVECTIVE  
INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH THIS EVENING. IN  
TURN, SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER  
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

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21 minutes ago, Stebo said:

To be honest I don't want tonight to do very much, anything to lessen the front blasting south is a good thing.

I feel like the front is going to crash regardless... So i'd rather actually get more intense DMC tonight and cold pools that help accelerate the front tonight than tomorrow. Speed everything up a few hours perhaps.

Also anyone know what's with that convection down south by Duncan, OK? Inhibition making it look funky? Reminds me more of WAA showers than frontal storms.

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Slightly OT question for this group:  I'm going chasing for the first time later this week.  The only lens I currently have is the kit lens that came with my digital camera body (that's I mostly use for Astrophotography).  It's your typical, not particularly fast wide to mid-zoom lens.  I have a budget for one new lens to buy tomorrow before I fly out - about $200-250.  Would it be more useful to get a fast, wide angle prime lens or an inexpensive longer zoom (which won't be particularly fast, given the price point I'm playing at).

TYIA.

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