Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 Starting the thread with tomorrow in case the marginal D2 risk including SW IA extends east and becomes more robust: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html SPC already has a Slight risk for Wednesday for primarily KS/OK/NE/S IA, but it currently reaches as far east into W/NC IL as Peoria and LaSalle-Peru (more for a hail threat by that time): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Possibly at least a marginal risk for IN/OH on Thursday but SPC not ruling out the possibility: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... The potential exists for a few episodes of severe weather east of the Rockies during the extended period; however, ensemble/deterministic guidance suggest considerable uncertainty remains regarding the location/timing of any one episode, precluding the introduction of probabilities at this time. For D4/Thursday, a sheared shortwave trough will advance across the Great Lakes, with an attendant surface front pushing east/southeast across Indiana and Ohio. While enhanced westerly flow aloft and some boundary layer moistening may yield a few severe storms, the threat appears too marginal for a probabilistic area at this time. [ . . . ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 Wednesday continues to look interesting on a conditional basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 18Z NAM gets some of the higher composites back towards Northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 NAM12/4km slowing this up even more, looking more like an Iowa event for Wednesday and a potential of severe weather here on Thursday, GFS also slowed up but not quite that slow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 2 hours ago, Stebo said: NAM12/4km slowing this up even more, looking more like an Iowa event for Wednesday and a potential of severe weather here on Thursday, GFS also slowed up but not quite that slow yet. Thursday has sparked my interest, provided things can slown down by about 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Wednesday's threat is becoming less interesting as time goes on.Might not even be chase worthy in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Wednesday's threat is becoming less interesting as time goes on. Might not even be chase worthy in the end. Locally probably not. However further west into Iowa could get interesting closer to upper jet and forcing. Des Moines had a good write up on the potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Locally probably not. However further west into Iowa could get interesting closer to upper jet and forcing. Des Moines had a good write up on the potentialEven out there the potential isn't that great looking.CAM's coming into range are fairly meh as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Even out there the potential isn't that great looking. CAM's coming into range are fairly meh as well. Would not put all the eggs in the basket with the CAMs, yet, per say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Was originally looking forward to chasing after work tomorrow, but now the setup looks waaaay west out by the MO River/western IA. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2017 Share Posted April 18, 2017 Not saying it will pan out but the GFS has been more bullish with development closer to the warm front in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Thursday looking better and better now that this system is slowing down. Definitely could be a nice wind event over North IN/ NW Ohio and South Michigan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Not saying it will pan out but the GFS has been more bullish with development closer to the warm front in IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. 00z 12km NAM does have a discrete signal from Kankakee into north central IN tomorrow 21-00z. It'll definitely be a day to monitor the GOES-16 data closely. Presumably we'll be in a mesoscale sector tomorrow, so we'll be able to watch for bubbling cu along the warm front. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 45 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 00z 12km NAM does have a discrete signal from Kankakee into north central IN tomorrow 21-00z. It'll definitely be a day to monitor the GOES-16 data closely. Presumably we'll be in a mesoscale sector tomorrow, so we'll be able to watch for bubbling cu along the warm front. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Low level flow is fairly anemic that far east, but you never know if something manages to ride near the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 3K NAM for Thursday is pretty amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Day 2 Slight Risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Day 1 Enhanced Risk for Northern Iowa and one county in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Thursday looks like a drive to Van Wert day and sit. OH/IN border should be a prime chase spot. My go to move is usually sit anywhere along US 127 and follow storms in either on 24 or 224 into the Toledo or Findlay areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 A few strong to severe thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Damaging Wind/Large Hail risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 clechat 2017/04/19 5:13 PM iembot 2 SE Bloomville [Seneca Co, OH] STORM CHASER reports HAIL of half dollar size (E1.25 INCH) at 4:57 PM EDT -- MOSTLY QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW PIECES AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 This supercell earlier this evening on the Defiance/Paulding County line in Western Ohio was responsible for wind damage plus hail two inches in diameter. Just wondering if this is a potential preview of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Meh threat was meh.Another good decision not to chase today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Day 1 Enhanced Risk for Southern Lower MI, Northeast Indiana, NW Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 I am surprised they went with Enhanced, not because of the potential which I think is actually good, but because they usually don't go this bold for this region so quickly. Usually it is a wait and see kind of thing. As for tomorrow though, all CAMs have the warm front stalling in the metro Detroit area. If that were to occur, there would be a pretty decent albeit conditional tornado threat for southeast Michigan. There is decent to good instability that would be feeding into the region ahead of the cold front and timing right now looks to be about as good as you can get this time of year 19-23z. I will say I am actually pretty bold on this potential tomorrow if the CAMs have any idea, we should have a pretty decent event for SEMI and NE IN/NW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Should be a terrific day of chasing around here tomorrow. Will probably sit in Defiance and adjust based on where storms fire but guessing it'll be north of the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 3 hours ago, Stebo said: I am surprised they went with Enhanced, not because of the potential which I think is actually good, but because they usually don't go this bold for this region so quickly. Usually it is a wait and see kind of thing. As for tomorrow though, all CAMs have the warm front stalling in the metro Detroit area. If that were to occur, there would be a pretty decent albeit conditional tornado threat for southeast Michigan. There is decent to good instability that would be feeding into the region ahead of the cold front and timing right now looks to be about as good as you can get this time of year 19-23z. I will say I am actually pretty bold on this potential tomorrow if the CAMs have any idea, we should have a pretty decent event for SEMI and NE IN/NW OH. Today has strong potential. But of course, IMO, skipper's rule still applies. It's not the ideal setup (I.E. lapse rates worsening with time), but there's definitely a lot going for it (strong forcing, good timing, strengthening low, etc.). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 I'll be interested to see if this AM line of storms sets up a boundary for this afternoons event to start from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 13z Day One from the Storm Prediction Center has trimmed back the Enhanced Risk a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Looks like a svr t storm watch is coming soon for ne In, nw OH, and se MI per SPC meso discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 Watch just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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